World Energy Outlook 2020

World Energy Outlook 2020
Foreword
Acknowledgements
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Part A
Chapter 01 - Overview and key findings
Introduction
Impacts of Covid-19 on the energy outlook
1.1 The pandemic is far from over and many uncertainties remain
1.2 Today’s policy settings do not produce a decisive break in the outlookfor CO2 emissions, but a more sustainable recovery is possible
1.3 Renewables are taking power and solar is the new king
1.4 Modern societies are becoming ever more reliant on electricity, butweak grids could prove to be an Achilles heel
1.5 The pandemic could trigger lasting changes in consumer
1.6 Lower fuel prices are a mixed blessing for energy security andsustainability
1.7 This is a crisis that penalises the most vulnerable
1.8 Covid-19 sharpens the dilemmas facing the oil and gas industry
Prospects for clean energy transitions
1.9 Enhanced clean energy policies and investments can make 2019 thepeak year for energy-related emissions
1.10 Today’s energy infrastructure, if operated as per past practices, wouldlock in a temperature rise of 1.65 °C
1.11 Within ten years, in the SDS, the drop in air pollutants would producesignificantly cleaner air than experienced during the 2020 lockdowns
1.12 Gases – of different sorts – are pivotal to different stages of energytransitions, but are still in search of clear roles and business models
1.13 Transitions depend on government actions, but more than 70% ofrelated investments could come from private actors
1.14 Net-zero pledges for 2050 and earlier are already essential to the SDS;achieving global net-zero by 2050 would require a dramatic extra push
1.15 Behavioural changes are essential to achieve the scale and speed ofemissions reductions required in the NZE2050
1.16 If energy transitions are not secure, then they will not be rapid either
Chapter 02 - An energy world in lockdown
2.1 Overview
2.2 Energy and Covid-19 pandemic
2.2.1 Impacts by fuel and technology
Oil
Electricity
Natural gas
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Energy efficiency
2.3 Which way from here?
2.3.1 New questions and uncertainties
Duration of the pandemic and the shape of the economic recovery
Strategies adopted by governments to kick-start economies
Risks for energy investment
Implications for energy costs and prices
Changes in company strategies
Changes in consumer attitudes and behaviour
2.3.2 Designing the scenarios
Scenarios
Economic outlook
Energy and carbon prices
Technology innovation, deployment and costs
Part B
Chapter 03 - Building on a sustainable recovery
3.1 Introduction
3.1.1 How has Covid-19 affected the Sustainable Development Scenario?
A new starting point
An evolving backdrop
3.2 Energy access
3.2.1 Impacts of the pandemic
Affordability and energy poverty
Availability of financing
3.2.2 A pathway to universal energy access by 2030
3.3 Air pollution
3.3.1 Impacts of the pandemic
3.3.2 A pathway to cleaner air by 2030
3.4 Greenhouse gas emissions
3.4.1 Impacts of the pandemic
3.4.2 CO2 emissions from existing energy infrastructure
3.4.3 Energy sector transformation to 2030
Oil and natural gas production
Electricity
Industry
Transport
Buildings
3.4.4 Investment and finance
Role of private and public sources and capital structures in investment
3.4.5 Trends after 2030
Chapter 04 - Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050
4.1 Introduction
4.2 A pathway towards global net-zero emissions in 2050
4.2.1 Primary energy demand and total final consumption
4.2.2 Electricity supply
4.2.3 Industry
4.2.4 Transport
4.2.5 Buildings
4.3 Role of behaviour changes in the NZE2050
4.3.1 CO2 emissions savings from behaviour changes in the NZE2050
4.3.2 Further details on behaviour changes
Private mobility
Residential energy use
Working from home
Passenger aviation
4.4 Lessons from countries with zero emissions targets
4.4.1 Net-zero emissions in the European Union in the SDS
4.4.2 Lessons for policy makers and industry
4.5 Conclusions
Chapter 05 - Outlook for energy demand
5.1 Overview
5.1.1 Uneven rebound to 2030
Total primary energy demand
Final energy consumption by sector
Total primary energy demand by region
5.1.2 Beyond 2030
Total primary energy
Policy impacts
5.2 Oil
5.2.1 Overview of oil demand trends
5.2.2 Oil demand by sector
Passenger cars
Trucks
Aviation
Shipping
Petrochemicals
Industry, buildings and power generation
5.3 Natural gas
5.3.1 Overview of natural gas demand trends
Power
Industry
Other sectors
Uncertainties affecting the outlook for natural gas
5.4 Coal
5.4.1 Overview of coal demand trends
Advanced economies
China
India and Southeast Asia
Uncertainties affecting the outlook for coal
5.5 Nuclear
5.6 Renewables
5.6.1 Renewables demand by sector
Power
Transport
Heat
Uncertainties affecting the outlook for end-use renewables
5.7 Energy efficiency
Energy intensity improvements
5.7.1 Energy efficiency by sector
Uncertainties affecting the outlook for efficiency
Chapter 06 - Outlook for electricity
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Outlook for electricity demand
6.2.1 Overview
6.2.2 Electricity demand by sector
6.2.3 Electricity demand by region
6.3 Outlook for electricity supply
6.3.1 Overview
6.3.2 Renewables
6.3.3 Coal-fired power
6.3.4 Natural gas-fired power
6.3.5 Nuclear power
6.3.6 Focus on financing costs for utility-scale solar PV
Financing costs with revenue support mechanisms
Financing costs of full merchant projects
Implications for levelised cost of electricity
6.4 Outlook for flexibility
6.4.1 Electricity networks
Network expansion
Investment
Grid revenue and the Covid-19 crisis
6.4.2 Energy storage
6.4.3 Demand-side response
6.5 Implications for sustainability
6.5.1 CO2 and pollutant emissions
6.5.2 Electricity access
Chapter 07 - Outlook for fuel supply
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Oil supply
7.2.1 Upstream
Impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic
Oil supply outlook to 2030
Longer term dynamics
7.2.2 Refining
Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic
Outlook for refining
7.3 Natural gas supply
Impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic
Natural gas supply outlook to 2030
A sensitive global LNG balance
Longer term dynamics
7.4 Coal supply
Impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic
Coal supply outlook to 2030
Outlook for coal trade
7.5 Other fuels
7.5.1 Modern use of solid biomass
7.5.2 Liquid biofuels
7.5.3 Biogas and biomethane
7.5.4 Nuclear fuels
7.5.5 Low-carbon hydrogen
Chapter 08 - A delayed recovery
8.1 Introduction
8.1.1 A delayed recovery to 2030
8.1.2 Longer term outlook
8.2 Impacts of a Delayed Recovery Scenario
8.2.1 Oil
8.2.2 Electricity
8.2.3 Natural gas
8.2.4 Coal
8.2.5 Renewables
8.2.6 Nuclear
8.2.7 Efficiency
8.3 Implications of a Delayed Recovery Scenario
8.3.1 Energy security
8.3.2 Emissions
8.3.3 Inequality and energy access
8.3.4 Investment
8.3.5 Innovation
Annexes
Annex A - Tables for scenario projections
Table A.1
Table A.2
Table A.3
Table A.4
Table A.5
Annex B - Design of the scenarios
B.1 Fossil fuel resources
B.2 Power generation technology costs
B.3 Key demand-side technology costs
B.4 Policies
Annex C - Definitions
Annex D - References
Chapter 1: Overview and key findings
Chapter 2: An energy world in lockdown
Chapter 3: Building on a sustainable recovery
Chapter 4: Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050
Chapter 5: Outlook for energy demand
Chapter 6: Outlook for electricity
Chapter 7: Outlook for fuel supply
Chapter 8: A delayed recovery
Annex B
Annex E - Inputs to the World Energy Model
General note
IEA databases and publications
External databases and publications
Socioeconomic variables
Power
Industry
Transport
Buildings and energy access
Energy supply and energy investment