World Energy Outlook 2019

WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2019......Page 1
Foreword......Page 4
Acknowledgements......Page 6
Table of contents......Page 15
Executive Summary......Page 24
Introduction......Page 30
Part A: Global Energy Trends......Page 34
Outline......Page 35
Chapter 1: Overview and key findings......Page 36
Introduction......Page 38
1.1 Overview......Page 39
1.2 Primary energy demand by region......Page 41
1.3 Final energy consumption and efficiency......Page 43
1.4 Power generation and energy supply......Page 45
1.5 Emissions......Page 47
1.6 Trade......Page 49
1.7 Investment......Page 51
1.8 Differences between the WEO-2019 and the WEO-2018......Page 53
Moving fast: solar PV and electric mobility......Page 55
Moving slow: emissions, coal demand, improvements in efficiency......Page 59
To watch: a new round of pledges......Page 62
Moving fast: shale, LNG, offshore wind......Page 64
Moving slow: integrated thinking; reform in producer economies......Page 68
To watch: oil security; Africa......Page 69
Moving fast: battery storage; pathways to electricity access......Page 71
Moving slow: pricing reform; access to affordable capital......Page 73
To watch: decarbonised gases......Page 76
Conclusions......Page 77
Chapter 2: Energy and the Sustainable Development Goals......Page 80
Introduction......Page 82
2.1 Scenario overview......Page 83
2.2 Scenario outcomes: Universal energy access......Page 87
2.3 Scenario outcomes: Air pollution......Page 88
2.4 Scenario outcomes: CO2 emissions......Page 89
Total final consumption......Page 90
Power generation......Page 91
Primary energy demand......Page 93
2.6 Investment in the Sustainable Development Scenario......Page 94
Status of emissions trajectories......Page 97
Status of energy access and air pollution......Page 98
Recent policy developments......Page 100
2.8 Where do we need to get to?......Page 103
A closer look at the transformation by sector......Page 106
How to finance the Sustainable Development Scenario?......Page 113
Which technology portfolio for the Sustainable Development Scenario?......Page 118
2.9 How much further can we go?......Page 122
Emissions trajectories consistent with 1.5 °C......Page 123
Implications for the energy sector of achieving zero CO2 emissions in 2050......Page 125
End-use sectors......Page 126
Summary and implications......Page 128
Chapter 3: Outlook for oil......Page 130
Introduction......Page 132
3.1 Overview......Page 133
3.2 Oil demand by region......Page 135
3.3 Oil demand by sector......Page 137
3.4 Oil supply by type......Page 139
3.5 Oil supply by region......Page 141
3.6 Oil product demand and refining......Page 144
3.7 Trade......Page 146
3.8 Investment......Page 147
3.9 Passenger cars: are we approaching the peak of the “ICE age”?......Page 148
Rise of electric vehicles......Page 149
Rise of SUVs......Page 151
Outlook for car sales and oil demand......Page 153
3.10 Pushing the boundaries of US tight oil......Page 156
Evolution in tight oil production costs......Page 158
Outlook for US tight oil and implications for other producers......Page 160
Technical and economic uncertainties in US tight oil production......Page 163
Policy uncertainties, social and environmental issues......Page 164
3.11 Can the world afford to relax about security of oil supply?......Page 166
Quality matters: US tight oil is helpful, but not a panacea......Page 169
Producer economies matter for consumers......Page 173
Conclusion......Page 174
Chapter 4: Outlook for natural gas......Page 176
Introduction......Page 178
4.1 Overview......Page 179
4.2 Natural gas demand by region and sector......Page 181
4.3 Natural gas production......Page 184
4.4 Trade and investment......Page 187
Associated gas today......Page 189
Middle East......Page 191
United States......Page 193
Brazil......Page 195
Outlook for associated gas......Page 197
4.6 How does innovation affect the outlook for LNG?......Page 198
Where are liquefaction costs heading?......Page 199
Growth in contractual innovation......Page 203
LNG pricing trends......Page 204
Can new LNG technologies create “unconventional demand”?......Page 206
4.7 Understanding the global potential for coal-to-gas switching......Page 210
Near-term opportunities for natural gas......Page 211
Is coal-to-gas switching a viable long-term route to emissions reductions?......Page 215
Chapter 5: Outlook for coal......Page 220
Introduction......Page 222
5.1 Overview......Page 223
5.2 Coal demand by region and sector......Page 225
5.3 Coal production by region......Page 227
5.4 Trade......Page 229
5.5 Investment......Page 230
Current status......Page 231
Outlook and key uncertainties......Page 234
Focus: industrial coal use in China......Page 235
5.7 Who will invest in coal supply?......Page 237
Changing landscape for coal investment and financing......Page 239
Focus: the main global coal producers......Page 241
Outlook and key uncertainties......Page 244
5.8 Coal mine methane......Page 246
Method for estimating methane emissions from coal supply......Page 248
Methane emissions from coal supply......Page 249
Reducing CMM......Page 251
Chapter 6: Outlook for electricity......Page 254
Introduction......Page 256
6.1 Overview......Page 257
6.2 Electricity demand by region......Page 259
6.3 Electricity demand by sector......Page 262
6.4 Electricity supply by source......Page 265
6.5 Installed capacity by source......Page 267
6.6 Electricity supply by region......Page 269
6.7 Power sector investment......Page 272
6.8 Competitiveness of power generation technologies......Page 274
CO2 emissions......Page 276
Pollutant emissions......Page 278
6.10 Affordability of electricity......Page 279
Sensitivity analysis......Page 280
Role of electricity in household energy spending......Page 282
Overview......Page 284
Where are CO2 emissions from coal-fired power generation locked in?......Page 285
Recent developments around the world......Page 286
What are the options?......Page 288
Implications......Page 291
Power system flexibility requirements will increase......Page 292
A diverse portfolio of flexibility options will be required......Page 293
Focus on battery storage......Page 294
Battery storage in India......Page 296
Cheap Battery case: India......Page 297
Chapter 7: Outlook for energy efficiency and renewables......Page 300
Introduction......Page 302
7.1 Energy efficiency overview......Page 303
World Energy Outlook links......Page 0
7.3 Efficiency by sector and investments......Page 307
7.4 Renewables policies and investments......Page 309
7.5 Material efficiency in heavy industries......Page 311
Demand for key materials......Page 312
Material demand and interlinkages with CO₂ emissions abatement in other sectors......Page 314
Material efficiency potential in the Sustainable Development Scenario......Page 316
Challenges, costs and enabling policies and actions......Page 319
7.6.1 Hourly electricity supply CO₂ emissions intensity: status and outlook......Page 321
Targeted energy efficiency to deliver the Sustainable Development Scenario......Page 323
Demand-side response and consumer awareness: unlocking further reductions......Page 324
Implications for flexibility......Page 328
7.7 Biogas: turning organic matter into renewable energy......Page 329
State of play: main technologies, uses and production today......Page 330
Biogas cost supply curve......Page 332
Outlook for biogas......Page 335
Part B: Special Focus on Africa......Page 338
Introduction......Page 340
Context......Page 341
Structure......Page 343
Understanding the scenarios......Page 344
Chapter 8: Africa today......Page 348
8.1.1 Economic growth and industrialisation......Page 350
8.1.2 Demographics and urbanisation......Page 352
8.1.3 Infrastructure and investment......Page 353
8.2 Access to modern energy......Page 356
8.2.1 Clean cooking......Page 358
8.2.2 Electricity......Page 362
8.2.3 Affordability: energy prices and fossil fuel subsidies......Page 368
Primary energy demand......Page 370
Households......Page 373
Productive uses......Page 375
Electricity demand......Page 376
Electricity supply from centralised grids......Page 377
Electricity trade......Page 380
Power system performance......Page 383
Mini-grid and stand-alone systems......Page 385
8.3.3 Fossil fuel resources and supply......Page 387
Oil......Page 389
Natural gas......Page 390
Coal......Page 391
Imperatives for resource producers......Page 392
Solar......Page 393
Hydropower......Page 394
Bioenergy......Page 395
Water......Page 396
Local air pollution......Page 398
Chapter 9: Urbanisation, industrialisation and clean cooking......Page 400
9.1 Introduction......Page 404
9.2.1 Residential sector......Page 409
9.2.2 Transport sector......Page 413
Is there a role for biofuels for transport?......Page 416
9.2.3 Productive uses......Page 417
Heavy industry......Page 420
Light industry, agriculture and services......Page 422
9.3 Clean cooking: the role of cities and higher incomes......Page 423
9.3.1 Increasing access to clean cooking options......Page 425
9.3.2 Rapid urbanisation requires better use of charcoal......Page 428
9.3.3 Rural areas – how to unleash the potential of biogas?......Page 431
Chapter 10: Access to electricity and reliable power......Page 434
10.1 Introduction......Page 436
10.2 Outlook for electricity access......Page 437
10.3 Outlook for electricity demand......Page 439
10.3.1 Electricity demand growth by sector......Page 441
10.3.2 Electricity demand growth by region......Page 443
10.4 Outlook for electricity supply......Page 447
10.4.1 On-grid supply......Page 449
10.4.2 Role of decentralised systems to reach universal access to electricity......Page 455
10.5 Reliability......Page 456
Power sector regional integration......Page 459
10.6 Affordability......Page 460
10.7 Investment needs for reliable, sustainable and affordable power......Page 462
10.8.1 Investment framework and market structure......Page 464
10.8.2 Private financing is concentrated in IPPs, mostly in South Africa......Page 466
10.9.1 Improve the financial and operational performance of utilities......Page 468
10.9.2 Enhance policy and regulatory frameworks to improve bankability......Page 470
10.9.3 Create supportive enabling environments for rural electricity access......Page 471
10.9.4 Strengthen provision of long-term finance......Page 473
Chapter 11: Natural gas and resource management......Page 476
11.1 Introduction......Page 478
11.2 The role of natural gas in Africa’s energy mix......Page 480
Incumbent producer: the case of Nigeria......Page 482
Resurgent producer: the case of Egypt......Page 484
Emerging producers: Mozambique and Tanzania cases......Page 485
Gas importers: the case of Ghana......Page 488
11.2.2 Outlook for natural gas demand, production and infrastructure developments in Africa......Page 489
11.2.3 Conclusions......Page 491
11.3 Maximising the value of Africa’s resources......Page 492
11.3.1 Outlook for fossil fuel production......Page 494
Ensure transparent and competitive frameworks for investment......Page 497
Invest strategically in associated infrastructure......Page 500
Manage hydrocarbon revenues to finance sustainable economic development......Page 502
11.3.3 Conclusions......Page 505
Implications for the world......Page 508
Africa as a key driver for global energy demand growth......Page 509
Mobilising investment for reliable power supply: challenging but achievable......Page 513
Not a major emitter, but climate change matters greatly for Africa......Page 515
Achieving global sustainable development goals requires the success of Africa......Page 521
How to read the profiles:......Page 525
Notes to profiles:......Page 526
12.1 Sub-Saharan Africa......Page 527
Sub-Saharan Africa policy opportunities......Page 530
12.2 Angola......Page 531
Angola policy opportunities......Page 534
12.3 Côte d’Ivoire......Page 535
Côte d’Ivoire policy opportunities......Page 538
12.4 Democratic Republic of the Congo......Page 539
DR Congo policy opportunities......Page 542
12.5 Ethiopia......Page 543
Ethiopia policy opportunities......Page 546
12.6 Ghana......Page 547
Ghana policy opportunities......Page 550
12.7 Kenya......Page 551
Kenya policy opportunities......Page 554
12.8 Mozambique......Page 555
Mozambique policy opportunities......Page 558
12.9 Nigeria......Page 559
Nigeria policy opportunities......Page 562
12.10 Senegal......Page 563
Senegal policy opportunities......Page 566
12.11 South Africa......Page 567
South Africa policy opportunities......Page 570
12.12 Tanzania......Page 571
Tanzania policy opportunities......Page 574
Part C: WEO insight......Page 576
Chapter 13: Prospects for gas infrastructure......Page 578
13.1 Introduction......Page 580
13.1.1 Role of gas infrastructure today......Page 581
Promise and limits of direct electrification......Page 582
Natural gas in the Sustainable Development Scenario......Page 584
13.1.3 Need for gas supply to evolve......Page 586
13.2.1 Hydrogen use today......Page 588
13.2.2 Costs and potential to blend hydrogen into gas networks......Page 590
Adapting the transmission grid......Page 591
Adapting the distribution grid......Page 592
Biomass gasification......Page 595
13.3.1 Biomethane use today......Page 596
13.3.2 Blending biomethane into gas networks: costs and potential......Page 597
13.4.1 Stated Policies Scenario......Page 601
13.4.2 Sustainable Development Scenario......Page 602
13.5.1 Reducing CO2 emissions......Page 604
13.5.2 Avoiding methane emissions......Page 606
13.5.3 Energy security......Page 608
13.6 Implications for policy makers and industry......Page 610
Chapter 14: Outlook for offshore wind......Page 614
14.2.1 Current status......Page 616
14.2.2 Market size and key players......Page 618
14.2.3 Offshore wind technology and performance......Page 620
14.2.4 Offshore wind costs for projects commissioned in 2018......Page 625
14.3.1 Global outlook......Page 628
14.3.2 Regional outlook......Page 629
European Union continues to be the leader in offshore wind......Page 630
China moves strongly ahead with offshore wind......Page 632
United States......Page 633
Emerging markets......Page 635
Capital costs......Page 636
Offshore transmission costs......Page 637
Capacity factors......Page 640
Cost of financing......Page 641
Levelised cost of electricity......Page 643
System value of offshore wind......Page 645
Value-adjusted LCOE of offshore wind......Page 647
14.4.1 Global technical potential for offshore wind......Page 649
Potential offshore wind performance......Page 650
Technical potential for offshore wind by region......Page 651
14.4.2 Improved economics for offshore wind......Page 655
14.4.3 Increased demand for renewable hydrogen......Page 656
14.4.4 Public acceptance......Page 657
14.5.2 Environmental concerns......Page 658
14.5.3 Onshore grid development......Page 659
14.6.1 Achieving environmental goals......Page 662
14.6.2 Synergies with oil and gas activities......Page 663
14.6.3 Enhanced energy security and affordability......Page 665
ANNEXES......Page 668
Annex A: Tables for scenario projections......Page 670
Annex B: Design of the scenarios......Page 752
Annex C: Definitions......Page 772
Annex D: References......Page 786