World Energy Outlook 2017

WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2017......Page 1
Foreword......Page 3
Acknowledgements......Page 5
Table of contents......Page 14
List of figures......Page 23
List of tables......Page 33
List of boxes......Page 36
List of spotlights......Page 38
Executive Summary......Page 39
Part A: Global Energy Trends......Page 47
Chapter 1: Introduction and scope......Page 49
1.1 The scenarios......Page 50
1.2 Developing the scenarios......Page 57
1.2.1 Inputs to the modelling......Page 61
1.2.2 International prices and technology costs......Page 67
Chapter 2: Overview......Page 79
2.1 How much energy does the world need, and where?......Page 80
2.2 Where now for energy in the United States?......Page 84
2.3 What does China’s “energy revolution” mean for its energy outlook, and for the world?......Page 88
2.4 What is the next move for energy-related CO2 emissions?......Page 93
2.5 How much do energy policies matter?......Page 97
2.6 Are new technologies bringing us closer to universal access to electricity?......Page 101
2.7 Is natural gas a fuel in good shape for the future?......Page 105
2.8 Can oil prices stay lower for much longer?......Page 109
2.9 Is the future switching towards electricity?......Page 114
2.10 Is offshore energy yesterday’s news or tomorrow’s headlines?......Page 119
Chapter 3: Energy, emissions and universal access......Page 123
3.1 Introduction......Page 124
3.2 Recent trends and developments......Page 126
3.3.1 Outlook for energy access......Page 130
3.3.2 Outlook for energy-related GHG emissions......Page 133
3.3.3 Outlook for energy-related air pollution......Page 141
3.4.1 Background......Page 145
3.4.2 Methodology and key assumptions......Page 146
3.4.3 Trends in the Sustainable Development Scenario......Page 152
3.5 What does it take to achieve a faster low-carbon energy transition?......Page 164
Chapter 4: Outlook for oil......Page 169
4.1 Recent market and policy developments......Page 170
4.2.1 Market dynamics to 2025......Page 171
4.2.2 Long-term scenarios to 2040......Page 172
4.3.1 Demand......Page 178
4.3.2 Supply......Page 190
4.3.3 Refining......Page 205
4.3.4 Trade and oil security......Page 208
4.3.5 Investment......Page 216
Chapter 5: Outlook for coal......Page 219
5.1 Recent market and policy developments......Page 220
5.2.1 Market dynamics to 2025......Page 221
5.2.2 Long-term scenarios to 2040......Page 222
5.3.1 Demand......Page 226
5.3.2 Supply......Page 229
5.3.3 Regional insights......Page 234
Chapter 6: Power markets and electrification......Page 245
6.1 Recent market developments......Page 246
6.2.1 Trends to 2040 by scenario......Page 249
6.2.2 Electrification: changing sources of growth......Page 250
6.2.3 Electricity demand and economic growth......Page 255
6.3.1 Recent policy developments......Page 256
6.3.2 Power generation capacity......Page 260
6.3.3 Investment......Page 266
6.3.4 Electricity generation......Page 272
6.3.5 Fossil-fuel consumption in power......Page 277
6.3.6 Power sector carbon-dioxide and pollutant emissions......Page 279
6.3.7 Technology costs and competitiveness......Page 282
6.3.8 Support for renewables-based electricity......Page 288
6.3.9 Power generation costs and electricity prices......Page 292
Chapter 7: Energy efficiency and renewable energy outlook......Page 297
7.2.1 Current status......Page 298
7.2.2 Outlook for energy efficiency......Page 301
7.3.1 Current status......Page 311
7.3.2 Outlook for renewables......Page 314
7.4 Some implications......Page 322
7.4.1 Investments in renewables and energy efficiency......Page 323
7.4.2 The impact of renewables and energy efficiency on import bills......Page 324
7.5 Interlinkages between energy efficiency and renewables......Page 325
7.5.1 Demand-side response: a meeting point for energy efficiency and variable renewables-based electricity......Page 327
7.5.2 Efficient supply of clean industrial heat......Page 333
7.5.3 Expanding building energy codes to cover renewables......Page 338
7.5.4 The multiple benefits of a joint approach......Page 342
Part B: Special Focus on Natural Gas......Page 347
Chapter 8: Outlook for natural gas......Page 349
8.1 Recent market and policy developments......Page 350
8.2.1 Market dynamics to 2025......Page 351
8.2.2 Long-term scenarios to 2040......Page 353
8.3.1 Demand......Page 355
8.3.2 Supply......Page 361
8.3.3 Regional demand and supply insights......Page 366
8.3.4 Trade and investment......Page 376
Chapter 9: The new gas order......Page 383
9.1 Introduction......Page 384
9.2.1 Production......Page 386
9.2.2 Implications for North America......Page 390
9.2.3 Implications for global market dynamics......Page 394
9.3.1 Pricing of gas......Page 398
9.3.2 Contracts in gas trade......Page 402
9.3.3 Investments and security of supply......Page 404
9.3.4 Affordability of gas......Page 410
9.3.5 What underpins our New Policies Scenario?......Page 412
Chapter 10: The environmental case for natural gas......Page 415
10.1.1 Assessing the environmental credentials of natural gas......Page 416
10.2 Methane emissions: how big is the problem?......Page 419
10.2.1 Methane emissions from the energy sector......Page 422
10.2.2 Methane emissions from oil and gas operations......Page 423
10.3 Tackling methane emissions......Page 434
10.4 Costs and benefits of action on methane emissions......Page 439
10.4.1 Marginal abatement cost curves......Page 440
10.4.2 Climate impacts of methane emissions abatement......Page 447
10.4.3 Summary of costs and benefits......Page 448
10.5 An agenda for action......Page 449
Chapter 11: Natural gas in a changing energy world......Page 453
11.2 Historical perspectives on coal-to-gas switching......Page 454
11.3 Natural gas use in the New Policies Scenario......Page 457
11.3.1 Analysis by sector and region......Page 460
11.3.2 Limits to the environmental contribution of gas......Page 463
11.4 Natural gas in the Sustainable Development Scenario......Page 465
11.4.1 Analysis by sector and region......Page 466
11.5 Trade and investment......Page 476
11.6 Decarbonising gas supply......Page 482
Part C: China Energy Outlook......Page 485
Chapter 12: Energy in China today......Page 487
12.1 Introducing the special focus on China......Page 488
12.2.1 Energy demand......Page 490
12.2.2 Focus on energy in China’s regions and provinces......Page 497
12.2.3 China and global energy markets......Page 502
12.3 Factors affecting China’s energy development......Page 507
12.3.1 Economic transition......Page 509
12.3.2 Demographics and urbanisation......Page 511
12.3.3 Environment......Page 512
12.3.4 Investment......Page 514
12.3.5 Energy governance and policies......Page 515
Chapter 13: Outlook for China’s energy demand......Page 523
13.1 China: shifting gears......Page 524
13.2 Overview......Page 525
13.2.1 Trends by fuel......Page 526
13.3 End-use sectors......Page 528
13.3.1 Industry......Page 531
13.3.2 Transport......Page 539
13.3.3 Buildings......Page 546
13.4.1 Background......Page 554
13.4.2 Trends in the New Policies Scenario......Page 556
13.4.3 Power sector reforms......Page 561
13.5 Environmental implications......Page 0
13.5.1 Energy-related CO2 emissions......Page 571
13.5.2 Energy-related air pollution......Page 573
Chapter 14: Outlook for China’s energy supply and investment......Page 577
14.1 Overview of key supply and investment trends......Page 578
14.2.1 Market structure and regulation......Page 579
14.2.2 Outlook for coal......Page 584
14.3.1 Market structure and reform......Page 588
14.3.2 Outlook for oil......Page 591
14.3.3 Oil trade and refining......Page 595
14.4.1 Market structure and reform......Page 600
14.4.2 Gas imports......Page 610
14.5 Renewables......Page 612
14.5.1 Bioenergy......Page 613
14.5.2 Hydropower......Page 614
14.5.3 Solar......Page 615
14.5.4 Wind......Page 616
14.6 Nuclear......Page 618
14.7 Investment......Page 619
Chapter 15: Global implications of energy policy reforms in China......Page 623
15.2.1 Demand trends......Page 624
15.2.2 CO2 emissions trends......Page 626
15.3.1 Macroeconomic transition in the New Policies Scenario......Page 629
15.3.2 Implications of a slower economic transition......Page 633
15.4 What if the clean energy transition is faster?......Page 636
15.4.1 A possible pathway to a cleaner energy sector......Page 637
15.4.2 China’s investment needs in the Sustainable Development Scenario......Page 643
15.5 Global implications of China’s energy development......Page 644
15.5.1 Oil, gas and coal markets......Page 645
15.5.2 Low-carbon technologies......Page 652
Annexes......Page 655
AnnexA: Tables for scenario projections......Page 657
A.1. Fossil fuel production and demand by region......Page 660
A.2. Energy demand, gross electricity generation and electrical capacity,
and carbon-dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion by region......Page 664
A.3. Global emissions of pollutants by energy sector and fuel......Page 740
AnnexB: Policies and measures by scenario......Page 743
AnnexC: Definitions......Page 755
AnnexD: References......Page 769