Wireless Foresight deals with the development of the wireless communications industry and technology during the coming ten to fifteen years. Telecommunications is a global business of enormous proportions and is one of the largest industries in the world.Written in a highly accessible and simple to read manner, this book is based around four scenarios of the wireless world in 2015. The focus is on the industry (i.e. infrastructure and terminal vendors, operators, and service developers and providers) as well as on new players.Discusses the long-term developments described in the four scenarios and also short term issues, for example the challenges facing industry.Uncovers important areas for technological research and discusses the critical challenges facing industry, for example; the high cost for infrastructure, the slow spectrum release, the stampeding system complexity, radiation, battery capacity, and the threat of a disruptive market change facing the telecommunications industry.Offers a global approach whereby developments from around the world are described.Employs the method of building full-scale scenarios as opposed to just identifying trends and making predictions.Wireless Foresight is an invaluable and provocative read for top and middle management, strategists, business developers, technology managers, and entrepreneurs in the telecom, datacom and infocom industries alike. It is also of great interest to financial analysts and academics.
Author(s): Bo Karlson
Edition: 1
Year: 2003
Language: English
Pages: 246
Contents......Page 8
Preface......Page 16
The Wireless Industry at a Crossroads......Page 20
Scenarios of the Wireless World in 2015......Page 23
Creating Scenarios......Page 25
Guide to the Book......Page 26
Part I: Scenarios......Page 28
2 Wireless Explosion—Creative Destruction......Page 30
A Sunny Berlin Day in 2015......Page 33
The Wireless Scene in 2015......Page 35
Wireless Technology in 2015......Page 45
3 Slow Motion......Page 48
Ordinary Life in Stockholm and Business Life in Shanghai......Page 51
The Wireless Scene in 2015......Page 54
Wireless Technology in 2015......Page 64
4 Rediscovering Harmony......Page 68
A Weekday Morning in a Small Scandinavian Village......Page 71
The Wireless Scene in 2015......Page 73
Wireless Technology in 2015......Page 83
5 Big Moguls and Snoopy Governments......Page 86
Early April Morning, Green Haven Gated Community, New York, US......Page 89
The Wireless Scene in 2015......Page 92
Wireless Technology in 2015......Page 101
Part II: Drivers of Development and Technological Implications......Page 104
6 Trends and Fundamental Drivers......Page 106
Fourteen Trends Shaping the Scenarios......Page 107
Fundamental Drivers......Page 120
Theories Supporting Fundamental Drivers......Page 127
7 Technological Conclusions from Scenarios......Page 136
System Technology in 2015......Page 137
Mobile Terminals in 2015......Page 139
Mobile Services in 2015......Page 141
Part III: Challenges for the Future......Page 146
Low-Cost Infrastructure and Services......Page 148
Seamless Mobility......Page 151
New and Advanced Services......Page 153
Usability and Human–Machine Interface......Page 154
Health and Environment......Page 155
A Need for Cross-Disciplinary Research......Page 156
The Challenges......Page 158
10 Challenges for Key Regions......Page 164
US......Page 165
Europe......Page 171
China......Page 174
Japan and South Korea......Page 177
Part IV: Moving into the Future with Scenarios......Page 184
Logics of Scenario Creation......Page 186
Making Our Scenarios......Page 189
Other Studies about the Future......Page 193
The Book in Brief......Page 198
Moving into the Future......Page 218
Appendixes......Page 222
Moklofs......Page 224
Yupplots......Page 225
Mobile Professionals......Page 226
Industrial Users......Page 227
The Wireless Foresight Project......Page 228
Wireless@KTH and the Vision-Driven Research Approach......Page 229
B......Page 230
M......Page 231
Y......Page 232
References......Page 234
Author Biographies......Page 238
B......Page 240
D......Page 241
I......Page 242
M......Page 243
R......Page 244
S......Page 245
T......Page 246
W......Page 247
Z......Page 248
