An in-depth account of why countries' treacherous foreign policies often have harmless origins, how this predicament shapes international politics, and what to do about it.
The increasing unpredictability of state behavior in recent world politics is a surprising development. The uncertainty that results intensifies conflict and stymies trust. In Volatile States in International Politics, Eleonora Mattiacci offers the first account of this issue that investigates which states have been volatile and why. Leveraging statistical techniques and archival data in a probing analysis of rivals and allies since the end of World War II, she rejects attempts at dismissing volatility as reflecting mercurial leaders or intractable issues. Instead, Mattiacci explains that a state acts in a volatile manner when its clashing domestic interests leverage power to achieve their goals on the international arena. In demonstrating states' potential for volatile behaviors, she asks us to reconsider how much we really know about change and instability in international politics. When properly understood, she shows, volatile behavior can become less confusing for observers and
potentially less dangerous. This book offers novel, evidence-based tools to cope with volatility in the global arena.
Author(s): Eleonora Mattiacci
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Year: 2023
Language: English
Pages: 229
City: New York
Cover
Volatile States in International Politics
Copyright
Dedication
Contents
Acknowledgments
List of Abbreviations
1. Introduction
The Puzzle
Making Sense of States’ Behaviors
Volatility vs. Other Forms of Change in States’ Behaviors
Why Volatility Matters
Two Ways to (Wrongly) Dismiss Volatility
The Argument in Brief
The Goals of This Book
Research Design
Book Outline
2. Theory: When Does Volatility Increase?
Step One: Relative Power
Step Two: Interest Heterogeneity
Step Three: The Interaction
Alternative Explanations
Conclusions
3. Measuring Volatility
Capturing Cooperation and Conflict
Capturing Dynamics
Isolating Volatility
Measuring Volatility: A Two-Step Procedure
Summarizing Volatility
The Measure in Practice
A Multipronged Approach to Measuring Volatility
Conclusions
4. Volatility and Rivals
Statistical Analysis Design
Measuring Relative Power Superiority
Measuring Heterogeneous Domestic Interests
Alternative Explanations
Results and Discussion
Conclusions
5. Volatility and Allies
France in 1954
France’s Relative Power
France’s Domestic Interests
Theoretical Predictions
Retracing Volatile French Behavior
Interests and Power Produce Volatility
Alternative Explanations
France Exits NATO: 1966
Conclusions
6. Conclusions
A New Perspective
What Can Volatility Tell Us?
Broader Implications for Research
Taking Volatility Seriously
Moving Forward
Appendix
A Note on Scaling
Measuring the Dependent Variable Using the Box-Jenkins Procedure
Summarizing Volatility
Monthly Data
Notes
Bibliography
Index
