Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics.
Author(s): Jens Beckert, Richard Bronk
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Year: 2018
Language: English
Pages: 0
Tags: Economic Forecasting, Uncertainty, Risk, Capitalism, Macroeconomics, Economics: Psychological Aspects
1: Jens Beckert and Richard Bronk: An Introduction to Uncertain FuturesSection I: The Nature of Expectations in Modern Political Economies2: Robert Boyer: Expectations, Narratives, and Socio-Economic Regimes3: David Tuckett: Conviction Narrative Theory and Understanding Decision-Making in Economics and Finance4: Jenny Andersson: Arctic Futures: Expectations, Interests, Claims, and the Making of Arctic TerritorySection II: The Strange World of Economic Forecasting5: Werner Reichmann: The Interactional Foundations of Economic Forecasting6: Olivier Pilmis: Escaping the Reality Test: How Macroeconomic Forecasters Deal with 'Errors'7: Andrew G. Haldane: Uncertainty in Macroeconomic ModellingSection III: The Role of Narratives and Planning in Central Banking8: Douglas R. Holmes: A Tractable Future: Central Banks in Conversation with their Publics9: Benjamin Braun: Central Bank Planning? Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Price of Bending the Yield CurveSection IV: Constructing Futures in Finance10: Elena Esposito: Predicted Uncertainty: Volatility Calculus and the Indeterminacy of the Future11: Natalia Besedovsky: Uncertain Meanings of Risk: Calculative Practices and Risk Conceptions in Credit Rating AgenciesSection V: Managing Expectations in Innovative Business12: Martin Giraudeau: Processing the Future: Venture Project Evaluation at American Research and Development Corporation (1946-1973)13: Liliana Doganova: Discounting and the Making of the Future: On Uncertainty in Forest Management and Drug Development14: Timur Ergen: The Dilemma between Aligned Expectations and Diversity in Innovation: Evidence from Early Energy Technology Policies
