U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Will China's Challenge Lead to a Crisis?

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Anxiety about China’s growing military capabilities to threaten Taiwan has induced alarm in Washington about whether the United States remains capable of deterring attempts to seize Taiwan by force. This alarm has fed American impulses to alter longstanding policy, and to increasingly view challenges confronting Taiwan through a military lens. While Taiwan clearly is under growing military threat, it also is facing a simultaneous and intensifying Chinese political campaign to wear down the will of the Taiwan people. This latter line of effort receives less attention, but left unaddressed, has the potential to do far more damage to American interests.

This book rightsizes the risks confronting Taiwan by taking a holistic view of China’s national ambitions and Taiwan’s role in them, China’s strategies for pursuing unification with Taiwan, and America’s most effective responses. Contrary to many other books on the market, the authors make the case for why conflict in the Taiwan Strait is not preordained, and in fact, it would be strategic folly for the United States to conclude that conflict is inescapable.

Hass, Bush, and Glaser argue that the center of gravity for determining the future of Taiwan is the will of Taiwan’s 23 million people. American policy should focus on their hopes and fears if the United States wishes to maintain influence over events in the Taiwan Strait. This calls for American resoluteness and steadiness of purpose in fortifying Taiwan’s economic dynamism, political autonomy, military preparedness, and dignity and respect on the world stage. Maintaining credible military deterrence is the minimum threshold, not the measure of success. U.S.-Taiwan Relations will be an invaluable resource for students, researchers, and journalists to understand this critical moment in U.S. foreign policy.

Author(s): Ryan Hass, Bonnie Glaser, Richard Bush
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Year: 2023

Language: English
Pages: 183
City: Washington, D.C.

Cover
Half Title
Title Page
Copyright Page
Contents
Introduction
Evaluating the Challenge
Recommendations Going Forward
Notes
Chapter 1: The Historical Background of the Current Conflict
From the Seventeenth Century to 1894
Japan on Taiwan and Civil War in China: 1895–1941
Pearl Harbor to the Korean War
The Korean War to Normalization of U.S.-PRC Relations
Dueling Over Unification and Independence
Devising a Unification Formula
Revisiting Taiwan Arms Sales
Cross-Strait Economic Relations
Wild Card: Taiwan’s Democratization
Beginning Political Contacts with Beijing
Arms Sales Again
Steps Forward, Then Steps Back
Temporary Stabilization
Tensions Rise Again
The 2000 Election Season
Chen Shui-bian Alienates the Bush Administration
The Ma Ying-jeou Administration
Conclusion
Notes
Chapter 2: U.S.-Taiwan Relations from 2016 to Present
Tussle over the “1992 Consensus”
The PRC’s Use of Coercion
Xi Jinping’s Taiwan Strategy
U.S. Policy toward Taiwan under Trump
How Tsai Ing-wen Managed Relations with the United States in the Trump Era
Biden Inherits Tense U.S.-China and Cross-Strait Relationships
Biden Administration Policy toward Taiwan
Is Strategic Ambiguity Outdated?
Speaker Pelosi Travels to Taiwan
Conclusion
Notes
Chapter 3: Charting the Future of U.S.-Taiwan Relations
America’s Top Interests and Objectives in Taiwan
Future Cross-Strait Scenarios and Implications for American Interests
Economic Scenarios
Taiwan Deepens Economic Dependence on China
Deglobalization and U.S.-China Economic Decoupling Lead to Taiwan’s Growing Isolation
Political-Military Scenarios
Negotiated Political Settlement between Taiwan and the PRC
Adaptation of Status Quo
China Initiates Limited Military Action against Taiwan to Bolster Its “Red Lines”
Conflict Precipitated by Taiwan Declaration of De Jure Independence
PRC-Initiated Military Conflict in the Taiwan Strait
The Twin Threats to Taiwan’s Security
The Military Threat
Sharpening Deterrence Options
Political-Military Campaign Planning
Bolstering Taiwan’s Deterrence Capabilities
The Political Threat
Policy Options for Responding to Coercion without Violence
Recalling America’s Role in Preserving Cross-Strait Peace and Stability
Notes
Further Reading
JOINT COMMUNIQUÉ ON THE ESTABLISHMENT OF DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
JOINT COMMUNIQUÉ ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA(AUGUST 17, 1982)
An Act
FINDINGS AND DECLARATION OF POLICY
IMPLEMENTATION OF UNITED STATES POLICY WITH REGARD TO TAIWAN
APPLICATION OF LAWS; INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS
OVERSEAS PRIVATE INVESTMENT CORPORATION
THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF TAIWAN
SERVICES BY THE INSTITUTE TO UNITED STATES CITIZENS ON TAIWAN
TAX EXEMPT STATUS OF THE INSTITUTE
FURNISHING PROPERTY AND SERVICES TO AND OBTAINING SERVICES FROM THE INSTITUTE
TAIWAN INSTRUMENTALITY
SEPARATION OF GOVERNMENT PERSONNEL FOR EMPLOYMENT WITH THE INSTITUTE
REPORTING REQUIREMENT
RULES AND REGULATIONS
CONGRESSIONAL OVERSIGHT
DEFINITIONS
AUTHORIZATION OF APPROPRIATIONS
SEVERABILITY OF PROVISIONS
EFFECTIVE DATE
Index
About the Authors