This book goes beyond other police leadership books to teach practitioners how to think about policing in a structured way that synthesizes criminological theory, statistics, research design, applied research, and what works and what doesn’t in policing into Mental Models. A Mental Model is a representation of how something works. Using a Mental Model framework to simplify complex concepts, readers will take away an in-depth understanding of how cognitive biases affect our ability to understand and interpret data, what empirical research says about effective police interventions, how statistical data should be structured for management meetings, and how to evaluate interventions for efficiency and effectiveness.
While evidence-based practice is critical to advancing the police profession, it is limited in scope, and is only part of what is necessary to support sustainable change in policing. Policing requires a scientifically based framework to understand and interpret data in a way that minimizes cognitive bias to allow for better responses to complex problems. Data and research have advanced so rapidly in the last several decades that it is difficult for even the most ambitious of police leaders to keep pace. The Twenty-one Mental Models were synthesized to create a framework for any police, public, or community leader to better understand how cognitive bias contributes to misunderstanding data and gives the reader the tools to overcome those biases to better serve their communities.
The book is intended for a wide range of audiences, including law enforcement and community leaders; scholars and policy experts who specialize in policing; students of criminal justice, organizations, and management; reporters and journalists; individuals who aspire to police careers; and citizen consumers of information about policing. Anyone who is going to make decisions about their communities based on data has a responsibility to be numerate and this book Twenty-one Mental Models That Can Change Policing: A Framework For Using Data and Research For Overcoming Cognitive Bias, will help you become just that.
Author(s): Renée J. Mitchell
Series: Routledge Series on Practical and Evidence-Based Policing
Publisher: Routledge
Year: 2021
Language: English
Pages: 228
City: London
Cover
Endorsements
Half Title
Series Page
Title Page
Copyright Page
Dedication
Contents
Figures
Tables
Acknowledgments
Prologue: The Shoulders of Giants
Introduction: What is a Mental Model and How Does It Help Policing
PART I: How We Think
Mental Model #1: System 1 and System 2
Mental Model #2: Cognitive Biases
Mental Model #3: First Principles Thinking
The Mental Models in Practice I-Mental Models 1-3: System 1 and System 2, Cognitive Biases, and First Principles Thinking
PART II: How We Think About Math
Mental Model #4: False Linear Thinking
Mental Model #5: Binary Percent Changes
Mental Model #6: Second Order Thinking
The Mental Models in Practice II-Mental Models 4-6: False Linear Thinking, Binary Percent Changes, and Second Order Thinking
PART III: How Things Concentrate
Mental Model #7: The Pareto Principle
Mental Model #8: The Law of Crime Concentration
Mental Model #9: The Felonious Few
The Mental Models in Practice III-Mental Models 7-9: The Pareto Principle, The Law of Crime Concentration, and The Felonious Few
PART IV: How Things Vary
Mental Model #10: Distributions
Mental Model #11: Law of Large Numbers
Mental Model #12: Regression to the Mean
The Mental Models in Practice IV-Mental Models 10-12: Distributions, Law of Large Numbers, and Regression to the Mean
PART V: How to Determine Causality
Mental Model #13: Correlation is Not Causation
Mental Model #14: Causal Inference
Mental Model #15: Bayesian (Probabilistic) Reasoning
The Mental Models in Practice V-Mental Models 13-15: Correlation is Not Causation, Causal Inference, and Bayesian Reasoning
PART VI: How to Think Scientifically
Mental Model #16: Peer Review Your Perspectives
Mental Model #17: The Scientific Method
Mental Model #18: Evidence-based Practice
The Mental Models in Practice VI-Mental Models 16-18: Peer Review Your Perspectives, The Scientific Method, and Evidence-based Practices
PART VII: How to Make Decisions
Mental Model #19: Targeting, Testing, and Tracking
Mental Model #20: Harm Indexes
Mental Model #21: Decision-making Models
The Mental Models in Practice VII-Mental Models 19-21: Triple T-Targeting, Testing, and Tracking, Harm Indexes, and Decision-making Models
PART VIII: How to Apply It All
Conclusion: How the Twenty-one Mental Models Can Improve Policing and Reduce Cognitive Bias
Mental Model Method—How It All Fits Together, Mental Models 1-21
Notes
About the Author
Index
