This book systematically introduces the knowledge system and research results of fisheries forecasting. It is divided into four parts and seven chapters. The first part is the introduction, which mainly introduces the basic concepts, the nature of the subject, and the research contents, as well as the current status of research. The second part is about the basic knowledge of fisheries forecasting, including overview of the world marine environment, fish shoaling and migration distribution, the relationship between fish behavior and marine environment, and the basic theory of forming fishing ground. The third part is the focus of this book, including the basic principles and methods of fisheries forecasting, as well as the application of new techniques and methods in fisheries forecasting. The fourth part is the comprehensive application of fisheries forecasting, including the general situation of world marine fisheries, the impact of global marine environment changes on fisheries resources and fishing ground, and case studying of fisheries forecasting of important economic species, such as oceanic squid, jack mackerel, anchovy, and skipjack.
The study of this book will help everyone to master the basic principles and methods of fisheries forecasting, as well as the application of new technologies and methods in important economic species, and lay a foundation for future work in the field of marine fisheries.
Author(s): Xinjun Chen
Publisher: Springer
Year: 2022
Language: English
Pages: 207
City: Singapore
Preface
Contents
Editors and Contributors
Abbreviations
1: Introduction
1.1 The Concept of Fisheries Forecasting
1.2 Nature and Research Content of Fisheries Forecasting Discipline
1.2.1 Nature and Status of the Discipline
1.2.2 Research Content of the Discipline
1.3 Relationship Between Fisheries Forecasting and Other Disciplines
1.4 General Situation of Foreign and Domestic Fisheries Forecasting Research
1.4.1 United States
1.4.2 Japan
1.4.3 China
References
2: Overview of the Marine Environment
2.1 The Marine Morphology
2.1.1 Marine Area and Partitioning
Oceans
Seas
Bays
Straits
2.1.2 Seabed Morphology
Coast
Continental Margins
Continental Shelf (Referred to as the Shelf)
Continental Slope
Continental Rise
Deep-Ocean Basin (Ocean Floor)
Ocean Trenches
2.1.3 Marine Sediments
2.2 Distribution of the Ocean Currents
2.2.1 Concept of Ocean Circulation and Its Genesis
2.2.2 Generation of Upwelling and Downwelling
2.2.3 Distribution of the Ocean Circulation
Equatorial Currents
Western-Boundary Currents
West Wind Drift
Eastern-Boundary Currents
Polar Circulation (Fig. 2.6)
2.2.4 Main Ocean Currents in Various Oceans
Pacific Ocean
Kuroshio Current
Oyashio Current
California Current
Equatorial Currents and Their Undercurrent
Peru Current
Atlantic Ocean
Gulf Stream
East Greenland Current
North Atlantic Current
Canary Current
Brazil Current
Indian Ocean
2.3 Sea Temperature Distribution in the Oceans
2.3.1 Basic Concept
2.3.2 Sea Temperature Distribution Pattern
Horizontal Distribution Pattern of Sea Surface Temperature
Vertical Changes in Sea Temperature
2.3.3 Distribution of Global Sea Surface Temperature
2.4 Distribution of Nutrient Salts and Primary Production in the Oceans
2.4.1 Nutrient Salts
Basic Concept
Sources of Nutrient Salts and Their Distribution
2.4.2 Primary Production
Related Concepts
2.4.3 Distribution of Marine Productivity
Tropical and Subtropical Ocean Regions and the Equatorial Zone
Tropical and Subtropical Ocean Regions
Equatorial Zone
Temperate (Subpolar) Zone in the Oceans
Northern Hemisphere
Southern Ocean
Polar Zone
Coastal Zones
Upwelling Fronts
Shelf-Slope Break Frontal Zone
Low-Salinity Fronts and Tidal Mixing Fronts
References
3: Shoaling and Migration of Fish and Their Relationships with Environment
3.1 Significance of Fish Shoaling and Migration
3.1.1 Concepts and Categories of Shoaling Fish
Breeding Shoals
Feeding Shoals
Overwintering Shoal
Temporary Shoals
3.1.2 General Patterns of Shoaling Fish
3.1.3 Functions of Shoaling Fish
Defensing Against Predators
Enhanced Foraging Success
Reproductive Advantages
Other Aspects
3.1.4 The Behavioral Mechanism and Structure of Shoaling Fish
The Behavioral Mechanism of Shoaling Fish
The Role of Vision in Shoaling Fish
The Role of Lateral Sense in Shoaling Fish
The Role of Olfaction in Shoaling Fish
Fish Shoal Structure
3.2 Fish Migration and Distribution
3.2.1 Definition and Types of Fish Migration
Definition of Fish Migration
Types of Fish Migration
Based on Driving Force of Migratory Movements
Based on Purpose of Migration
Breeding Migration or Spawning Migration
Feeding Migration (Also Called Foraging or Fattening Migration)
Overwintering Migration (Also Known as Seasonal Migration or Temperature-Adaptive Migration)
According to Ecological Environment (Nature of Waters)
Migration of Oceanodromous Fish
Migration of Anadromous Fish
Migration of Catadromous Fish
Migration of Potamodromous Fish
3.2.2 Mechanism and Biological Significance of Fish Migration
Mechanism of Fish Migration
Factors Affecting Fish Migration
Internal Factors
External Factors
Mechanisms of Orientation During Migration
Hydrochemical Factors
Water Current
Tropism of Fish
Temperature
Topography
Genetic Factors
Cosmic Factors
The Biological Significance of Fish Migration
3.2.3 Vertical Migration of Fish
Characteristics of Vertical Migration
Vertical Migration Speed
Influencing Factors
3.2.4 Research Methods for Fish Migration
Statistical Catch Analyses
The Tagging Method
The Definition of Tagging
The Significance of Tagging
Types of Tagging
External Tags
Isotopic Tags
Bio-remote Sensing Tags
Data-Storage Tags
PSAT
Distribution Model Prediction
Prediction of Migration Based on Trace Element and Stable Isotope Analysis
Trace Element Analysis
Stable Isotope Analysis
3.3 Characteristics of the Marine Environment and Its Impact on Fish Distribution
3.3.1 Characteristics of the Marine Environment
3.3.2 The Impact of the Marine Environment on Fish Distribution
Marine Environmental Factors
Comprehensive Effects
Effects of Dominant Factors
Direct and Indirect Effects
The Limiting Mechanism of Marine Environmental Factors
General Effects of Marine Environmental Conditions on Fish Behavior
3.4 The Relationship Between Fish Behavior and Temperature
3.4.1 Response of Fish to Temperature
3.4.2 Adaptation of Fish to Water Temperature Changes
3.4.3 The Optimal Temperature Range for Fish Species
3.4.4 Impact of Water Temperature on Fish Shoaling and Migration
3.4.5 Vertical Structure of Water Temperature and the Distribution of Fish
3.5 Relationship Between Fish Movement and Ocean Currents
3.5.1 Types of Ocean Currents
3.5.2 The Impact of Ocean Currents on the Survival Rate of Fish Larvae
3.5.3 Relationship Between Ocean Currents and the Range of Fish Migration
3.5.4 Relationship Between Ocean Currents and Tuna Distribution
3.5.5 Relationship Between Tidal Currents and Fisheries
3.6 Relationship Between Fish Movement and Water Salinity
3.6.1 Distribution of Salinity in the Ocean
3.6.2 Responses of Fish to Salinity Changes
3.6.3 Fish Respond to Salinity Changes by Regulating Osmotic Pressure
3.6.4 The Relationship Between Salinity and Fish Movement
3.7 Relationship Between Fish Movement and Dissolved Oxygen
3.7.1 Dissolved Oxygen in Seawater
3.7.2 Harm of Anoxic Water to Fish and Its Effect on Fish Movement
3.7.3 Relationship Between Dissolved Oxygen and Tuna Distribution
3.8 Relationship Between Fish Movement and Other Factors
3.8.1 Relationship Between Fish Movement and Water Depth and Seafloor Topography
3.8.2 Relationship Between Fish Movement and Bait Organisms
Bait Organisms
Plankton
Demersal Organisms
Swimming Animals
Predators
Predatory Fish and Animals
Red Tide Organisms
References
4: Basic Theories of Formation of Fishing Ground
4.1 Basic Concepts and Types of Fishing Grounds
4.1.1 The Concept of Fishing Grounds and Their Characteristics
Fishing Grounds
Basic Characteristics of Fishing Grounds
Several Basic Issues Studied in the Science of Fishing Ground
Basic Conditions for the Formation of Fishing Grounds
4.1.2 Types of Fishing Grounds
4.1.3 Fishing Period (Fishing Season)
4.1.4 Evaluation of the Value of Fishing Grounds
4.2 General Principles for the Formation of Excellent Fishing Grounds
4.2.1 Fishing Grounds Along Current Boundaries
Concept of a Current Boundary
Reasons for the Formation of Fishing Grounds Along Current Boundaries
Kitahara´s Law of Fishing Conditions
Method for Judging Current Boundaries
Amount of Aggregation of Floating Substances in Fishing Grounds Along Current Boundaries
Distribution of Fishing Grounds Along Current Boundaries
4.2.2 Fishing Grounds in Eddy Areas
Mechanical Eddy
Topographically Generated Eddy
Compound Eddy
4.2.3 Upwelling Fishing Grounds
General Principles for the Formation of Upwelling Fishing Grounds
Types of Upwelling
Wind-Induced Upwelling
Divergent Upwelling
Anticline Structure of Water Temperature
Cold-Water Dome
Distribution of Upwelling Fishing Grounds
4.2.4 Continental Fishing Grounds
Main Water Systems That Affect Continental Fishing Grounds
Conditions for the Formation of Continental Fishing Grounds
Distribution of the Main Continental Fishing Grounds Around the World
4.2.5 Fishing Grounds in Reef Banks
Types of Sea Areas with Reef Banks and Their Distribution
Distribution of Fishing Grounds in Reef Banks
4.2.6 Distribution of the Main Fishing Grounds Around the World
References
5: Basic Principles and Methods of Fisheries Forecasting
5.1 Overview of Fisheries Forecasting
5.1.1 The Concept of Fisheries Forecasting
5.1.2 Types and Content of Fisheries Forecasting
Divided Based on the Forecast Period
Divided Based on Fisheries Forecasting Content
5.2 Techniques and Methods for Fisheries Forecasting
5.2.1 Basic Process of Fisheries Forecasting
5.2.2 Composition of a Fisheries Forecasting Model
Basis of Fisheries Science
Data Models
Forecasting Models
5.2.3 Introduction of the Main Fisheries Forecasting Models
Statistical Models
Linear Regression Models
Generalized Regression Model
Bayesian Method
Time Series Analysis
Spatial Analysis and Interpolation
Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence Methods
ANN Models
Rule-Based Expert System
CBR
Mechanism/Process Models and Theoretical Models
5.3 Application of Ocean Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in Fisheries Forecasting
5.3.1 Application of Remote Sensing in Fisheries Forecasting
SST
Ocean Water Color
5.3.2 Application of GIS in Fisheries Forecasting
Development History of Fisheries GIS
Utilization of GIS to Study the Relationship Between Fishery Resources and the Marine Environment
Utilization of GIS to Study Fisheries Forecasting
5.4 Application of Habitat Theories and Methods in Fisheries Forecasting
5.4.1 Basic Concept
5.4.2 Brief Description of Research Methods
5.4.3 Commonly Used HSI Calculation Formulas and Their Applications
5.4.4 Application of the HSI in Marine Fisheries
References
6: Case Studies of Fisheries Forecasting
6.1 Fishing Season Analysis and Fishing Ground Forecasting
6.1.1 Fishing Season Analysis: Case Studying for O. bartramii in the North Pacific Ocean
Migration Distribution of O. bartramii
Relationship Between Fishing Season Analysis for O. bartramii and the Marine Environment
Relationship Between the Fishing Season of O. bartramii and Sea Temperature
Relationship Between the Formation of the O. bartramii Fishing Season and Ocean Currents
6.1.2 Fishing Period Prediction: Case Studying for Japanese Spanish Mackerel S. niphonius in the East China Sea
Overview of the Migration Distribution of S. niphonius
Fishing Period Forecasting for S. niphonius
Sea Temperature and Fishing Period
Air Temperature and Fishing Season Date
6.1.3 Prediction of Central Fishing Grounds
Prediction of the Central Fishing Grounds for Katsuwonus pelamis (Skipjack Tuna) in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean
Biological Overview of the Katsuwonus pelamis Fishery in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean
Analysis of the Distribution of Katsuwonus pelamis Fishing Grounds in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean and Distribution P...
Correlation of CPUE with Surface Sea Temperature
CPUE Spatial-Temporal Distribution and Gravity Center Movement
ENSO and the Movement of the Fishing Ground Gravity Center
Relationship Between Fishing Ground Displacement and Sea Temperature Changes
Changes in the Gravity Center of the Central Fishing Ground for Katsuwonus pelamis and Establishment of a Prediction Model
Correlation Between Longitude and Latitude of the Quarterly Production Gravity Centers Each Year and the SSTA for the Nino 3.4...
Relationship Between the Longitude Distribution of the Quarterly Production Gravity Centers Each Year and the SSTA for the Nin...
Prediction Model for the Longitude of the Production Gravity Center of Katsuwonus pelamis Based on the SSTA Value
Forecasting the Central Fishing Ground for O. bartramii
Establishing a Forecast Model for the Central Fishing Ground of O. bartramii
Comparison of the Distribution of the 20 and 15 C Isotherms in Each Month
Warm-Water Branch Distribution of the Kuroshio Current Each Year and Its Relationship with the Gravity Center of Operating Fis...
Forecast Model for Fishing Ground Movement
6.2 Catch Prediction
6.2.1 Catch Prediction Based on Multivariate Linear Regression: Case Studying for Largehead Hairtail (Trichiurus haumela) in t...
6.2.2 Catch Prediction Based on the Grey System
Principles of Grey Dynamic Modeling
The GM (n, 1) Model
The GM (1, h) Model
The GM (1, 1) Model
Grey Disaster Prediction
Testing Methods for the Grey Prediction Model
Testing Method with Absolute Correlation
Testing Method with the MSE Ratio and Small Error Probability
Cases of Catch Prediction with the Grey System
Catch Prediction Based on Grey Theory: Case Studying for Penaeus chinensis Yield in the Bohai Sea
Prediction of the Abundance of the Eel Fry Catch
6.3 Prediction of Abundance or Abundance Index
6.3.1 Prediction of the Abundance of O. bartramii in the North Pacific Ocean
Relationship Between the Year-to-Year Variation in the SST of Spawning Grounds and Resource Abundance
Relationship Between the Year-to-Year Variation in the SST of Feeding Grounds and Resource Abundance
Relationship Between Resource Abundance and Mean SST Anomaly Value
6.3.2 Prediction of the Abundance of Argentine Shortfin Squid (Illex argentinus) in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean
Correlation Analysis and the Selection of Key Areas
Forecast Model Realization and Comparison of the Results
Multivariate Linear Model
EBP Forecast Model
6.3.3 Prediction of the Recruitment of Dosidicus gigas in the Southeast Pacific Ocean
Analysis of the Characteristic Environmental Factors
Forecast Model Realization and Comparison of the Results
6.3.4 Prediction of the Abundance of Antarctic Krill (Euphausia superba)
Variations in Euphausia superba Catch
Year-to-Year and Seasonal Changes in Sea Ice in the Spring and Winter (July to November)
Establishment of the Relationship Between the CPUE for Krill and Sea Ice in the Winter and Spring (July to November) and the R...
References
7: Effects of Global Climate Changes on Marine Fishery Resources
7.1 Current Status of Marine Fishery Development in the World
7.1.1 Development of Marine Fishery
7.1.2 Status of Marine Fishery Development in Each Statistical Area by FAO
Northwest Pacific Ocean
Northeast Pacific Ocean
Western Central Pacific Ocean
Eastern Central Pacific Ocean
Southwest Pacific Ocean
Southeast Pacific Ocean
Northwest Atlantic Ocean
Northeast Atlantic Ocean
Western Central Atlantic Ocean
Eastern Central Atlantic Ocean
Southwest Atlantic Ocean
Southeast Atlantic Ocean
The Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea
East Indian Ocean
West Indian Ocean
Antarctic Sea
7.2 Overview of Changes in the Global Marine Environment
7.2.1 Global Climate Warming and Its Effects on the Marine Ecosystem
The Concept of Global Warming and Its Causes
Trends in Global Warming and the Consequences
Effects of Global Warming on the Marine Ecosystem
7.2.2 Ocean Acidification and Its Harm to Marine Biological Resources
The Concept of Ocean Acidification and Its Causes
The Concept of Ocean Acidification
Causes of Ocean Acidification
The Harm of Ocean Acidification
Effects on Phytoplankton
Effects on Coral Reefs
Effects on Mollusks
Effects on Fish
Effects on Marine Fisheries
7.2.3 Phenomena of Global Climate Change with Greater Effects on Fisheries
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Oceanic Warm Pool and Cold Pool
Aleutian Low
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
7.3 Effects of Climate Change on the Fishing Grounds for the World´s Main Species
7.3.1 Tuna
7.3.2 Saury
7.3.3 Chilean Jack Mackerel
7.3.4 Peruvian Anchovy
7.3.5 Cod
7.3.6 Salmonids
7.3.7 Cephalopods
References
