The Well Timed Strategy: Managing the Business Cycle for Competitive Advantage

Most companies ignore one of their best opportunities for honing competitive advantage: the opportunity to proactively manage business cycles and macroeconomic turbulence. Despite the profound impact that the business cycle has on the fortunes and fate of so many businesses large and small--and the employees and investors that depend on them--not fa single book offers a comprehensive guide to strategically and tactically managing the business cycle. The Well-Timed Strategy shows how to manage not just the business cycle and industry cycles but also today's unprecedented level of macroeconomic turbulence. Peter Navarro shows how to align every facet of business strategy, tactics, and operations to reflect changing business conditions. Drawing on hundreds of examples, Navarro distills clear, simple management principles for managing economic upswings and downswings. Navarro addresses everything from inventory, production, and supply chain management to marketing, pricing, and long-term capital investment. Navarro presents examples from around the globe, ranging from Broadcom and Cemex to Paccar and Xilinx Chinese real estate developers to U.S. small caps. Clear, concise, and exceptionally readable, The Well-Timed Strategy makes complex macroeconomic forecasting easy to understand -- and even easier to act upon.   Introduction  xvii   Chapter 1: Strategies and Tactics of the Master Cyclist Executive  1 Chapter 2: Countercycling Your Capital Expenditures  15 Chapter 3: The Acquisitive Master Cyclist Buys Low and Sells High  39 Chapter 4: The Art of “Cherry Picking” and Other Well-Timed Tactics of the Human Resources Manager  55 Chapter 5: “Macromanaging” Your Production, Inventory, and Supply Chain  75 Chapter 6: Master Cyclist Marketing Through the Business Cycle Seasons  95 Chapter 7: Pricing the Cycle and Managing Credit and Account Receivables  111 Chapter 8: Proactive Profiting From Oil Price Spikes, Interest Rate Hikes, and Exchange Rate Risks  129 Chapter 9: When You Can’t Beat the Business Cycle, Hedge Its Risks!  149 Chapter 10: Surviving—and Prospering from—the Economic Shocks of War, Terrorism, Drought, and Disease  169 Chapter 11: The Master Cyclist’s Favorite Forecasting Tools  185   Concluding Thoughts  211   Appendix A: The Master Cyclist Project’s Treasure Trove of Data and All-Star Team  213 Appendix B: A Business Cycle Primer  223   Notes  233   Index  239