Ultimata feature as a core concept in the coercive diplomacy scholarship. Conventional wisdom holds that pursuing an ultimatum strategy is risky. This book shows that the conventional wisdom is wrong on the basis of a new dataset of 87 ultimata issued from 1920–2020. It provides a historical examination of ultimata in Western strategic, political, and legal thought since antiquity until the present, and offers a four-pronged typology that explains their various purposes and effects: 1) the dictate, 2) the conditional war declaration, 3) the bluff, and 4) the brinkmanship ultimatum. The book yields a better understanding of interstate threat behaviour at a time of surging competition. Background materials can be consulted at www.coercivediplomacy.com.
Author(s): Tim Sweijs
Series: Twenty-first Century Perspectives on War, Peace, and Human Conflict
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Year: 2023
Language: English
Pages: 300
City: Cham
Acknowledgements
Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
Chapter 1: The Use and Utility of Ultimata in Coercive Diplomacy
Introduction
Key Contributions
A Genealogy of Ultimata
Track Record of Ultimata on the Basis of a New Dataset
A Typology of Ultimata
A Word on Method
Structure of This Book
References
Chapter 2: A Genealogy of Ultimata
Introduction
Ultimata from Antiquity Until the Second World War
Ultimata in Antiquity
Ultimata in the Middle Ages
Ultimata from the Renaissance to the Late Nineteenth Century
Ultimata from the First Hague Peace Conference to the Second World War
Conclusion
References
Chapter 3: Ultimata in Coercive Diplomacy
Introduction
Changing Views on the Threat of Force in Interstate Relations
The Use and Utility of Ultimata in Coercive Diplomacy: Arguments and Evidence
Conclusion
References
Chapter 4: The Dataset: Data Collection and Coding Procedures
Method
Definition and Operationalisation of Ultimata
Peace Versus War Settings
State Versus Non-state Actors
The Demand-Threat-Deadline Trinity
Strategic Versus Tactical
Time Period and Search and Research Strategy
Inclusion of Cases and Case Summaries
The Coding Scheme
Ultimatum, Demand, Threat, Deadline
The Coercer and the Target of Coercion
Regime Type
Material and Military Capabilities
International Support for Target of Coercion
Involvement League of Nations or United Nations
Demonstration and Use of Force Coercer and Target of Coercion
Ultimatum Dynamics: Strategies, Responses, and Outcomes
In Lieu of a Conclusion
References
Chapter 5: Ultimata 1920–2020: A Chronological Survey
Introduction
The First Wave: The 1920s
The Second Wave: 1930–1942
The Period 1945–1989
The Third Wave: The 1990s
Into the Twenty-First Century: 2000–2020
Conclusion
References
Chapter 6: Ultimata 1920–2020: Patterns and Findings
Introduction
Outcomes: Compliance and Objectives Achieved
Strategies: Escalate, Punish, Negotiate, End
Power Differences
Type of Demands
Demonstrations of Force
Type of Coalitions and Isolation of the Target of Coercion
Conclusion
References
Chapter 7: A Typology of Ultimata
Introduction
A Typology of Ultimata
The Dictate
The Conditional War Declaration
The Bluff
The Brinkmanship Ultimatum
Contribution of the Typology
References
Chapter 8: The Dictate
Delineating the Type
Dictates in the Dataset
Conclusion
References
Chapter 9: The Conditional War Declaration
Delineating the Type
Conditional War Declarations in the Dataset
Conclusion
References
Chapter 10: The Bluff
Delineating the Type
Bluffs in the Dataset
Conclusion
References
Chapter 11: The Brinkmanship Ultimatum
Delineating the Type
Brinkmanship Ultimata in the Dataset
Conclusion
References
Chapter 12: Findings and Conclusions
References
Index
