After two decades of War on Terror, it is particularly important, for both academic and policy purposes, to clearly understand why the US formidable mobilization of means and might has transformed into a such a blatant geostrategic defeat of the US and its allies in the broad Middle East. This is all the more paradoxical that the WOT achieved a series of tactical victories – such as the toppling of hostile regimes in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya; the crippling of the national economies of enemy states by sanctions; the successful targeted killing of lead terrorist Usama Bin Laden, ISIS cult leaders Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi and his successor, etc. So, why have these tactical victories not led to what was supposed to become, according to the US government, a ‘Greater Middle East’? With most authors being from or living in the Middle East, this book is unique as it brings perspectives and answers from the region. This is crucially important as we are entering, we argue, the era of a Post-American Middle East.Chapters 1 and 10 are available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com
Author(s): Laurent A. Lambert, Moosa Elayah
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Year: 2023
Language: English
Pages: 286
City: London
Preface
Contents
List of Contributors
List of Figures
List of Tables
1 Introduction
Why This Book?
A New Era
9/11/2001 and the War on Terror
Structure of This Book
References
Part I War, Expanding Chaos & Failed State-Building Across the Middle East
2 Afghanistan Since 2001: US Geostrategic Ambitions, a Failed State, and the Return of the Taliban
Afghanistan: Why Did Nothing Go as Planned?
“To War, Not to Court”. 9/11 and the Rush to War
First US Strikes, Capture of Kabul by the Northern Alliance, Bin Laden Disappears
The Social and “Liberal” War in Afghanistan: Creating a Society via Military Power?
2002–2010: State-Building, Society-Building: How to “Liberalize” Afghan Society?
2010–2011. The Battle of Marjah: The Victory of the Generals?
2011–2021. Leaving Afghanistan (The Least Damaging Way Possible)
The Institutionalization of Instability: The Afghan State Since 2001
Back to the Bonn Legacy: Depoliticizing State Reforms, Overlooking Elite Politics
The Puzzle of State Capacity—State Failure
International Donors: Centralizing the State—Bypassing the State
From State Failure to Regime Illegitimacy: Democratic Disenchantment
Democratic Ambitions in Absence of Elite Settlement
The Failure of Electoral Democracy
Accounting for the Resurgence of the Taliban Movement
Re-Anchoring the Taliban Phenomenon in State-Society Relations
Overtaking the State, Acting Like a State
Conclusion
3 Iraq 2003–2007, Geopolitics of an Imperial Democratization
Introduction: Debating American Imperialism in Iraq (2003–2007)
Going to Iraq (2001–2002)
Changing the Rationale of War and the Neoconservative Influence
How to Define the American Empire?
Acknowledging the Empire
A New Imperial Discourse of Concrete Actions on the Ground—Not Just a Moral Discourse
From the Ideological “Imperial Project” (2001) to the “Imperial Moment” on the Ground in Iraq (2003)
Was (Also) the Invasion of Iraq a War for Oil?
Why the Invasion: The Main Categories of Classical Explanations Are Insufficient in the Case of Iraq
Firdos Square, Baghdad, April 9, 2003: The “Benevolent Empire” on the Ground
The Failure of the Imperial Moment in Iraq: Social Collapse (2003), the Battle of Fallujah (2004), and the Final Surge as the End of the American Moment (2007)
2003–2004: Social, Economic, and Political Collapse in Occupied Iraq
The Battle for Fallujah (2004): Regaining Control by Stabilizing the “Sunni Triangle”
“The Surge” (2007): The End of the American Imperial Moment in Iraq
Conclusion: On the “Impotence of Power” or Powerlessness of Power in the Middle East
4 The Quasi-Legal Foundations of Rebel Oil Governance: The Case of the Houthis in Yemen
Introduction
The Crimi-Legal Logics of Rebel Oil Governance
Oil and Houthi Rule in Northern Yemen
Conclusion
References
5 Wars Against Terror in Oil Lands, Russian Interventions, and Chinese Energy Policies: The Case of Northern Iraq and Syria
Introduction
The Fragile Context of Syria, from Small Oil Exporter to Energy Pauper
The Iraqi Oil, Grand Geopolitics and Production Challenges
The Failed 2003 Liberation of Iraq’s Oil
China’s Energy Policies, Foreign Infrastructure Development, and Implications for Iraq
Scenario Analysis and Framework
Results of the Energy Scenarios Analysis
Conclusion
Bibliography
Part II Indirect Consequences of the War on Terror and Legacy
6 Violence, Political Instabilities and Large-Scale Migrations in the MENA Region: Libyan, Syrian, and Yemeni Cases in Regional Perspective
Introduction
I—The Multiple Push Factors Behind MENA Migrations
Violence and Political Legacy of the War on Terror
II—Effects of the Migration Policies of the EU, Turkey, and the Gulf States on Migrations from Libya, Syria, and Yemen
From European Dream to EU Policing
Mass Migrations and EU—Turkey Relations
EU-Libyan Engagement
Criminalisation and the Fear of Radicalisation/Terrorism
KSA and the Gulf States: Labour Migrations, No Refugees, and Forced Yemeni Returns
The Case of Yemen and Saudi Arabia
Conclusion
References
7 Overcoming Jihadism in Arabia: Preventing Violent Extremism Policies in the Gulf Monarchies
Introduction
Setting the Context
Preventing Violent Extremism (PVE) in the Literature
Methodological Approach and Data Collected
Policies and Institutions in the GCC
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
The State of Qatar
Kuwait
The United Arab Emirates
Bahrain
The Sultanate of Oman
Discussion and Findings
Conclusion
References
8 Trump and Netanyahu’s Failed Palestine Sell-Out: ‘A Hate Plan, Not a Peace Plan’
Introduction
Imperialistic Genealogy of the ‘Deal of the Century’
‘A Significant Concession’
‘Woe to the Vanquished’
Mixed Reactions to the Deal
Conclusion
9 Geopolitical Polarization, Natural Gas, and Regional Energy (Dis-)Integration in the Middle East and North Africa
Introduction
Demand, Cooperation, and Tensions Around Natural Gas in the Middle East and Beyond
Regional Energy Cooperation, Integration, and Economic Benefits
The Weaponization of Natural Gas
East Mediterranean Gas, New Dynamics, and the Institutionalization of Tensions
Geopolitical Background and the Role of Natural Gas in East-Med Tensions
When Geopolitics Dictates Politics and Policies
Escalations in Maritime and Diplomatic Disputes Over Gas Resources
Turkey and Cyprus
Israel and Lebanon
Drivers of Tensions Surrounding Natural Gas in the Region
The Demographic Factor and Boom in Regional Natural Gas Demand
Non-mutually Agreed Operations and Pipeline Politics Exacerbate Old Tensions
The Problematic Compositions of the New Gas Fora in a Period of US-Sponsored Polarization
Duplication of a Gas Forum Despite Limited Reserves Among EMGF Member Countries
Conclusion
References
10 Conclusions
The Four Why.s of the WOT Failure from a Middle East Perspective
The Uncertain Post-American Middle East
Joint Threat from China and Russia to the US Role in the Region
New Priorities
References
Annex A: Detailed Description of the Methodology for Chinese-Iraqi Energy Forecasting
First Scenario: The Energy Transition Scenario
Second Scenario: Energy Diversification of Suppliers
Diversification of Energy Supplier
Third Scenario: Business as Usual Scenario
Evaluation Matrix
