This book presents the current conflict in the Middle East and North Africa over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the biggest in Africa. The project explains why economic, and to some extent political, survival is at the core of the conflict, specifically between Egypt and Ethiopia. Although the problem started with insistence of “no dam” by Egypt and subsequently narrowed down to a filling up period of the reservoir and technical operations of the dam, finding a solution agreeable to both nations has been elusive for the past eight years. Ensuring water for all members in the Basin is consistent with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 6, particularly given the looming effects of climate change, increasing population, urbanization, and rising consumptive water uses.
Author(s): Simon H. Okoth
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Year: 2021
Language: English
Pages: 308
City: Cham
Foreword
Acknowledgments
Introduction
Framing the Issue
Scope of the Study
Water Rights Conflict
The White House to the Rescue
Format
Contents
About the Author
Abbreviations
List of Figures
List of Tables
Part I The Conflict, Murmurs of War, and Response
1 Conflict in the Nile Basin
The Problem
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
Issues of Contention
Declaration to Build the Dam
The Context
Historical Commitment
Historical Impediments
Political Instability in Ethiopia
Drought and Famine
Economic Hardships
Colonial Treaties
Political Instability in Egypt
GERD Technical Aspects
Value-Based Conflicts
Dam as a Political Project
Rights
Risks
Equity
Efficiency
Benefits Versus Costs
Substantive Issues of Contention
Issue 1—Ethiopia’s Unilateral Decision vs. Legal Covenants
Issue 2—Negative Externalities?
Issue 3—Filling and Operation of the Dam
References
2 Murmurs of War
Significance of the Nile
Invasions
Romanticized
Governance
Politicization of the Nile
19th Century: First Critical Juncture
20th Century: Second Critical Juncture
Creation of the Nile Basin Initiative
History of NBI Formation
Goals and Objectives
The Structure
NBI and Water Security Goal
GERD Ignites Conflict
References
3 The Response
The NBI and Its Limitations
Efficacy of Water Institutions
Successes and Limitations
Structure
Governance
Processes
CFA and Its Limitations
Treaty Ratification
Permanent Institutions
Water Security
Conflict Resolution Mechanisms
Adaptability
Pluralistic Decision-Making
International Panel of Experts
Mediation-1: The Declaration of Principles
Mediation-2: Trump’s Deal or No Deal?
Twists and Turns
Regional “Capillarity Effect”
The MENA Powers and the Nile Basin Initiative
Regional Subsystem
Summary
References
4 Lessons Learned
Introduction
Strengths
Institutional
Policy
Evidence-Based Policy-Making
Policy Styles and Problem-Solving Approaches
Policy Instruments
Diplomatic
Weaknesses
Institutional
Policy
Diplomacy
Collective Action Problem: Strength or Weakness?
The Tragedy of the Commons: Strength or Weakness?
References
Part II Navigating Solutions Through Theoretical Lenses
5 Theoretical Solutions
Introduction
Prospect Theory
Losses, Gains, and Other Premises
Collective Action Theory
Cross-Cultural Communication Theory
Intergroup Contact Theory (Contact Hypothesis)
Pareto-Improvement Principle
References
Part III Short-Term Solutions
6 Ideal Third-Party Mediation
Introduction
Competencies
Understanding the Context
Negotiating Context
External Factors
Political Stressors
Social Stressors
Framing the Problem
Experience
Pragmatic Strategies
Distributive Strategy
Elicited/Integrative
Transformational Strategy
Duress-Free Mediation
Outcomes That Last
Compliance
Client Satisfaction
Summary
References
7 Bilateral Agreements and Litigations
Introduction
Bilateral Treaties
Summary
Litigation
Litigation Limitations
Summary
References
Part IV Long-Term Solutions
8 Renegotiate, Partition, Apportion the Waters, and Contextualize Negotiation
Introduction
Renegotiate the CFA
Conditions to Renegotiate
Renegotiation Costs: Constraints and Solutions
Lessons for Egypt
Partitioning the Nile Basin
Free-Rider
Defection and Group Size
The Upper Nile Basin (UNB)
The Lower Nile Basin (LNB)
Apportioning the Nile Waters
Allocating Water Quotas
Contextualized Negotiation Model (CNM)
Uniqueness
References
Part V Policy Recommendations and Conclusions
9 Policy Recommendations and Conclusions
Policy Recommendations: Implications for Egypt and Ethiopia
Going to War (Deploy “Hard Power”)
Mitigating Water Rights Conflicts
Resolving Water Rights Conflicts
Policy Recommendations: Implications for the Nile Basin
References
Conclusions
What Lack of Agreement Means for the Actors
Alternatives for Egypt
Implications for the MENA Powers and the Nile Basin Initiative
Regional Security
Appendix 1a
Timeline of Events—GERD Project
Appendix 1b
Timeline of Events—Negotiations
References
Index
