This book tries to build a broad view on industrial processes of large economies and their integration in the world. It provides insight into the industrialization progresses of the quartet of USA, China, Germany and Japan, all attaining individual industrialization success by distinct trade, fiscal and industrial policy path, the underlying principles of which can be traced back to respective nation's roots in civilization. The combination of their industrial output led to the integrated formation of international industrial distribution. While being highly productive, the current distributed pattern yields benefits that are unevenly dispersed among different regions, industries and societal groups within each participating nation and among engaging economies. To address the uneven benefits distribution at both domestic and international levels, large industrial economies took a plethora of policy actions that will impact industrial ecosystem and portfolio results. The book aims to help readers to build better investment strategies and robust risk management practice under the context of uncertainty and successfully navigate through choppy waters in the years ahead.
Author(s): Xiaojiang Zhang
Publisher: Springer
Year: 2022
Language: English
Pages: 196
City: Singapore
Introduction
Contents
About the Author
1 The Integrated State of Global Production Chain
1.1 China’s Top-Down Macro Engines
1.2 Bottom-Up Allocation by Export and Auto Production
1.3 The German-Sino Auto Linkage
1.4 The Sino Japan US Production Linkage
1.5 The Global Electronics Supply Chain and the IT Revolution
1.6 The Aerospace Supply Chain
2 Bismarck and the German Model of Consensus
2.1 Business, Labor and Governmental Mitigation
2.2 Research, Training and Limited Fiscal Support
2.3 Bank Lending and Long-Term Industrial Objectives
2.4 Stable Currency and Segmented Euro Fiscal Leverage
2.5 The German Search for a Stable Scaled Export Market
3 The Meiji Restoration and Value-Added Industrial Focus
3.1 Postwar Industrial Objectives and 5-Year Plans
3.2 Industrial Initiatives and Semiconductor Agreement
3.3 Trade Conflict and Interest Rate Liberalization
3.4 Currency Rate and the Plaza Accord
3.5 Aging Society and Fiscal Conservation
3.6 Sino-Japan-US Labor Division
4 The New Rome and the US Exceptionalism
4.1 Trade Industrial Policies in History
4.2 Fiscal Industrial Policy and Functional Focus
4.3 Direct Versus Indirect Specific Industrial Policy
4.4 Dollar Status, Yield Comparison and Industrial Allocation
4.5 The Global Deployment Model and Innovation Leverage
5 The Current Entrenched Global Imbalance
5.1 German Industrial Congregation Versus the Rest of Europe
5.2 Japanese Industrial Congregation by Industries and Regions
5.3 China Supply Chain Congregation and the Rise of Tier-1 Cities
5.4 US Tech International Success and Domestic Regional Divergence
5.5 The Capital Efficiency Model and the Social Divergence of the 1%
5.6 Industrial Policy Stability and Corporate Bias
5.7 Russia, UK and France
6 The Balancing Acts by the Large Industrial Economies
6.1 Broad Trade Tariff Increase and Corporate Tax Reduction
6.2 Industry-Specific Foreign Capital, Technology Restrictions
6.3 Home Market Development and Competitiveness
6.4 Home R&D and Industry Competitiveness
6.5 Home Labor Competitiveness and Social Safety
6.6 Industrial Globalization Dependency Diversification
7 The Current Macro Economic Structure of China
7.1 Successive 5-Year Plans and Changing Priorities
7.2 Macro Management Model—National Budgetary Expenditure
7.3 Macro Management Model—Policy Banks
7.4 Macro Management Model—PBOC and Financial Institutions
7.5 Macro Management Model—Corporates and Consumers
8 The Need and Path of Governance Modernization
8.1 The History of Geographical and Developmental Balance
8.2 The Key Governance-Building Events in China History
8.3 The Necessity of Gradual but Persistent Governance Reform
8.4 Current Value System and Government System
8.5 Past Market-Oriented Executive Branch Reform
9 Key Task Items for Governance Modernization
9.1 Mandate, Institute, Position, Task Realignment for Efficient Governance
9.2 Anti-corruption System for Effective Governance
9.3 Budgetary Reforms and Regional, Industrial Rebalance
9.4 Tax Reform, Real Estate and Fiscal Rebalance
9.5 Real Estate, Educational Reform and Wealth Rebalance
9.6 The Private Industries and Financial Reforms
9.7 Foreign Enterprises, Negative List Reform and Trade Agreements
10 The Future of Supply Chain Redistribution
10.1 The Decoupling Decision Process
10.2 German Japan US Auto Congregation in China
10.3 Sino-US Electronic Bifurcating Development
10.4 Maturing Manufacturing with China Plus One
10.5 Less Affected Medicine, Wintel, Aerospace, and Agricultural Industries
11 The Future of USD and the Global Capital Markets
11.1 Current Account, Oil and Electronics Supply Chain
11.2 Capital Accounts and Monetary Liquidity Synchronization
11.3 Value Preservation and Global Capital Markets
11.4 USD Risk Factors and Alternative Assessment
12 Potential Disruptive Industrial Development
12.1 Quantum Computing and the Control of the Global Electronic Ecosystem
12.2 Cloud Computing and the Rebalancing Within the Electronic Ecosystem
12.3 Chip Commoditization and the Redistribution Within the Electronic Ecosystem
12.4 Vehicles Electrification and Automotive Ecosystem Transformation
12.5 Self-driving Vehicles, Drones and Logistics Ecosystem Transformation
12.6 Clean Energy and Commodity Dollar Uncertainty
12.7 Gene, Human Brain Interaction and Emergence of New Bio-ecosystem
13 Uncertain Macro Development
13.1 Potential Macro Events from the US
13.2 Potential Macro Events from China
13.3 Potential Disruption in Sino–Europe–Japan Economic Integration
13.4 Potential Macro Development in Energy Source Countries
13.5 The Global Governance Model Feasibility
14 Specific End Notes
