The History and Future of Technology: Can Technology Save Humanity from Extinction?

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Eminent physicist and economist, Robert Ayres, examines the history of technology as a change agent in society, focusing on societal roots rather than technology as an autonomous, self-perpetuating phenomenon. With rare exceptions, technology is developed in response to societal needs that have evolutionary roots and causes. In our genus Homo, language evolved in response to a need for our ancestors to communicate, both in the moment, and to posterity. A band of hunters had no chance in competition with predators that were larger and faster without this type of organization, which eventually gave birth to writing and music. The steam engine did not leap fully formed from the brain of James Watt. It evolved from a need to pump water out of coal mines, driven by a need to burn coal instead of firewood, in turn due to deforestation. Later, the steam engine made machines and mechanization possible. Even quite simple machines increased human productivity by a factor of hundreds, if not thousands. That was the Industrial Revolution. 

If we count electricity and the automobile as a second industrial revolution, and the digital computer as the beginning of a third, the world is now on the cusp of a fourth revolution led by microbiology. These industrial revolutions have benefited many in the short term, but devastated the Earth’s ecosystems. Can technology save the human race from the catastrophic consequences of its past success? That is the question this book will try to answer.

Author(s): Robert U. Ayres
Publisher: Springer
Year: 2021

Language: English
Pages: 848
City: Cham

Preface
Acknowledgments
Contents
Part I: Before the Industrial Revolution
1: Introduction
2: Fire and Water: Technologies Extending Nature
2.1 Bipedalism: Down from the Trees
2.2 Pottery, Cooking, and Mobility
2.3 Keeping the Dark at Bay
2.4 Pain, Anesthesia, and Surgery
2.5 Water Management and Farming
2.6 Agriculture
2.7 Extensions of the Legs: Mobility and Transport
3: Extensions of the Body
3.1 From Skin to Fibers
3.2 From Fibers to Fabrics and Clothing
3.3 From Caves to Walls to Settlements
3.4 From Teeth and Claws to Bows and Arrows
3.5 Metallurgy
3.6 Firearms and Explosives
4: Words and Music
4.1 Cave Art
4.2 Writing and Stories
4.3 Tokens, Numbers, Ideographs, Pictographs, and Cuneiform
4.4 Logography: Shift from Visual to Aural
4.5 The Alphabet: Segmentation of Sounds
4.6 Musical Notation
4.7 Musical Instruments
4.8 From Numbers to Arithmetic And Algebra
5: Printing, Movable Type, and Books
5.1 Precursors of Paper
5.2 Gutenberg, Movable Type, and the Bible
5.3 The Protestant Reformation and the Rise of Knowledge
Part II: The Age of Fossile Fuels
6: The Enlightenment: The Rise of Science
6.1 Money and Credit
6.2 Universities and “Higher Learning”
6.3 Alchemy and Chemistry
6.4 Magnetism and Electricity
6.5 Philosophy and Astronomy
6.6 Entropy, Complexity, and the Universe as a “Heat Engine”
7: The First Stage of Industrialization: Coking and Canals (1712–1820)
7.1 Coking and Iron Smelting
7.2 Coal and Canals
7.3 Foundations of Chemistry
7.4 The Alkali Industry and Soap Making
7.5 Phosphorus and “Safety Matches”
7.6 Rubber
8: Machine Tools and Mechanization
8.1 Attaching Metals: Welding, Soldering and Brazing, Riveting
8.2 Screws, Machines, and Machine Tools
8.3 Ball Bearings and Roller Bearings
8.4 Printing Inventions
8.5 Clocks, Automata, and Watches
8.6 Locks and Keys
8.7 The Repeating Rifle and the Safety Pin
8.8 The Zipper Fastener
8.9 The Bicycle
9: The Triumph of Steam and Steel (1820–1876)
9.1 From a Pump to an Engine
9.2 Trevithick’s High-Pressure Steam Engine
9.3 Mechanization of Textile Manufacturing
9.4 George Stephenson and the Railway Boom
9.5 The Hot Blast and Cheap Steel
10: Petroleum and Petrochemicals
10.1 Petroleum, the New “Black Gold”
10.2 Coal Gas for Streetlighting
10.3 Aniline Dyes
10.4 Synthetic Fibers: From Rayon to Orlon
10.5 Fertilizers and Nitrogen Fixation
10.6 Petroleum Refining Technology
11: Anesthesia, Surgery, and Modern Medicine
11.1 Anesthesia, Analgesics, and the Conquest of Pain
11.2 Antiseptics and Antibiotics
11.3 Immunology and Vaccines
11.4 Opiates and Drug Injection
11.5 Sulfa Drugs
12: Mobility: From Rails to Roads to Space Travel
12.1 From Pistons to Turbines
12.2 The Steam Turbine
12.3 Gas Turbine Technology
12.4 The Automobile Revolution
12.5 Powered Flight
12.6 From Airmail to Air Transport
12.7 Rockets, Missiles, and Space Travel
13: Electricity and Electrification of Factories and Homes
13.1 Early Experiments
13.2 Michael Faraday, Joseph Henry, and Magnetic Induction
13.3 Dynamos and Motors
13.4 Arc Light
13.5 Edison’s Jumbo Generator and Central Station Power
13.6 Trams, Street Railways and TGV
13.7 Household Electrification and Kitchen Appliances
14: Communications: From Carrier Pigeons to Telephones and Radio (1876–1976)
14.1 When Messages Are Urgent, Time Matters Most
14.2 The Semaphore and the Telegraph
14.3 The Telephone
14.4 Cables
14.5 Microwaves, Radar, and Communications Satellites
14.6 Communications Satellites
14.7 Fiber Optics
15: The History of Artificial Light
15.1 Wax Candles and Oil Lamps
15.2 Gaslight
15.3 Incandescent Lights
15.4 Fluorescent Lamps
15.5 Halogen Light
15.6 Light-Emitting Diodes (LEDs)
15.7 Organic LEDs
15.8 Light Amplification by Stimulated Emission of Radiation (Lasers)
15.9 Multiangle Light Scattering (MALS)
Part III: Information Age
16: Electronic Broadcast Media: Radio and TV
16.1 Radio
16.2 Television
16.3 Videophones, Video Conferencing, and Interactive Games
16.4 LCDs and Flat-Panel Displays
17: Photography and Movies
17.1 Photography from the Camera Obscura to the Brownie
17.2 Movies and Sound Recordings
17.3 Kirlian Photography
17.4 Digital Cameras
17.5 Copying Machines and Xerography
17.6 X-rays and X-ray Microscopy
17.7 Laser Holography
17.8 Electron Microscopy
17.9 Radar and Lidar
18: The Transistor Transition: 1945–1969
18.1 Semiconductors and Transistors
18.2 Magnetic Disk Storage and Core Memories
18.3 Static and Dynamic Semiconductor Memories: SRAM and DRAM
18.4 Image Processing and Digital Cameras
18.5 Integrated Circuits and Microprocessors
18.6 Mobile Phones
19: Machine Computation and Digitization
19.1 Computation by Machines
19.2 Electronic Computation
19.3 Computer Languages Before the Intel Microprocessor
19.4 Computer Languages and Operating System After Intel’s Microprocessor
19.5 Mobile Operating Systems; Android
19.6 Data Interface Technology
19.7 ASCII, Bar Codes, Credit Cards, and Chargers
20: The Internet and the World Wide Web
20.1 The Internet
20.2 The Increasing Speed of the Internet
20.3 The World Wide Web
20.4 Web Browsers
20.5 Search Engines and the Rise of Google
20.6 The Internet: Agent of Personal Freedom or Autocratic Control?
20.7 The Blockchain: Is It a Game Changer?
20.8 Quantum Computing
20.9 Some Critiques of the Internet and the WorldWideWeb
21: The Eco-Footprint of Material Wealth: Pollution, Climate Change, and Epidemics
21.1 The “Circular Economy” Is an Unreachable Limit, Like Absolute Zero
21.2 On Water Pollution and Fresh Water Scarcity
21.3 Air Pollution and Climate Change
21.4 Global Warming, Climate Change, and Sea Level Rise
21.5 On Pests, Eco-Pathologies and Extinctions
22: Nuclear Power
22.1 Background: Nuclear Weapons
22.2 Nuclear Power and Atoms for Peace
22.3 Nuclear Power Problems
22.4 Nonconventional (Thorium-Based) Nuclear Power
22.5 Nuclear Fusion; ITER
22.6 Nuclear-Powered Aircraft and Spaceships
23: Solar Power and Renewables
23.1 The Transition to Zero Carbon
23.2 Photovoltaics
23.3 Superconductors
23.4 EROEI and Fossil Fuels Vs. Renewables
23.5 Electric Energy Storage
23.6 Electric Vehicles (EVs)
23.7 Electric Battery Technology
23.8 Solid-State Batteries
23.9 Self-Driving (Autonomous) Vehicles
23.10 Robotics
24: Scarce Elements and Scarce Metals
24.1 Lithium Availability
24.2 The Periodic Table
24.3 Sources, Hitch-Hikers, and By-Products
24.4 Reduction of Ores to Metal
24.5 On Materials That Do Not Recycle
24.6 The Supply–Demand Disconnect
24.7 Recycling and Metal Rental: The “Circular Economy”
24.8 Resource Depletion as a Limit to Growth
25: Food and Agriculture
25.1 Historical Background
25.2 The Fertilizer Problem
25.3 The Phosphorus Problem
25.4 Indoor Farming with LEDs
25.5 Light Quality (Fig. 25.5)
25.6 History of Vertical Agriculture
25.7 Cultured Meat
26: Biotechnology and Human Health
26.1 Birth Control Technology: Toward the Pill
26.2 Medical Progress and Declining Death Rates
26.3 DNA and RNA
26.4 Prokaryotes and Eukaryotes
26.5 Genetic Modification and Cloning
26.6 Epigenesis
26.7 Bacteriophages
26.8 The Rise of New Diseases and Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria
27: Can Technology Save Homo Sapiens from Extinction? Utopia 2120
27.1 Things Are Changing
27.2 The History of Looking Ahead
27.3 Pessimism Rampant
27.4 Will Artificial Intelligence (AI) Come to the Rescue?
27.5 A Case for Cautious Optimism
27.6 New Utopia 2120?
27.7 End of Report
Appendix: On Impossibilities
References
Index