Even before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Central Region faced numerous obstacles to building a stable and prosperous future. The region, which encompasses the Middle East, the Horn of Africa, Central Asia, and South Asia, has been plagued by economic and political uncertainty amidst dramatic shifts in the global power structure. With the pandemic now exacerbating the volatility in this already fragile region, the U.S.'s strategic objectives are rife for re-examination.
A complicated stew of factors such as weakening of established governance systems, the emboldening of extremist individuals and groups through advances in digital technology, the humanitarian crises in Afghanistan and Syria, and the intensification of the great power competition with China and Russia are creating a fertile environment for the growth of violent extremist organizations (VEOs). Such organizations take advantage of vulnerable, aggrieved, and traumatized populations to fuel radicalization, recruitment, and unrest, which further undermine stability and the potential for peace and prosperity.While it is still early to fully understand how the ongoing response to the COVID-19 pandemic will impact U.S. policy, this book provides a timely analysis of relevant dynamics such as popular radicalization, digital information ecosystems, networks of influence, and new capabilities to recognize and prepare for other such black swan events in the region.
Author(s): Adib Farhadi, Anthony Masys
Publisher: Springer
Year: 2022
Language: English
Pages: 330
City: Cham
Preface
Acknowledgements
Contents
Editors and Contributors
From the Great Power Competition to Great Power Cooperation: Strategic Lessons from a Pandemic
Introduction
How the Pandemic Has Altered the Geo-Strategic Landscape in CASA - Revealed Interconnectedness and Interdependence
Increased Vulnerability to Misinformation in the COVID-19 Era
Recommendations for U.S. Strategic Shifts in a Post-Pandemic CASA Region
New Silk Road Initiative Investment in Afghanistan
Cooperation with Other Regional Powers
Cooperation Over Competition with China in Afghanistan
China–U.S. Partnerships
Conclusion
References
Iran and the United States: The Way Forward
Introduction
The Military Dimension
US–Iran Relations—the Way Forward
References
Who Are the Great Powers in 2021?
Introduction
The United States
China and Russia
…and India?
Regional Power Competition
Iran
Pakistan
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Israel
Jordan
Exploiting Regional Friction Points and Proxy Fights
Yemen
Other Players in the Region
Oman
Bahrain
Kuwait
The Global Rebalance
References
Exploiting Seams and Gaps in the Central Asia and South Asia Region: A Framework for Analysis
Introduction
Seven Days in March 2021: The Suez Canal Crisis, the Greater Indian Ocean Region, and CASA
The Seams and Gaps Analytical Framework
Geographic and Cognitive Seams: Intra-Ocean Trade Routes and the CASA Region
Diplomatic, Economic, Institutional, and Cognitive: China’s Belt and Road Initiative
Conclusions: Calibration and Consistency to Close Seams and Gaps
References
Building Trust and Advancing U.S. Geoeconomic Strength Through Public–Private Partnership Stakeholder Capitalism
Introduction
Shifting to Stakeholder Capitalism Over State or Shareholder Capitalism
State, Business, and Human Security
Re-aligning State Security in the Post-COVID-19 Era of the GPC
The Emergence of Global Interdependence of State Security
Opportunities for Growth at Home and Abroad
Interdependence of Critical Infrastructure
Business Security and Access to Capital
China and the U.S.—Rivals and Partners
The Prescription
Public Private Partnerships (PPPs)
Medical PPPs
Education PPPs
Supply Chain PPPs
Industrial Policy and the U.S. Defense Industry
Findings
References
Russia Views Central Asia/South Asia-The Immediate Threat and Longer-Term Opportunity
Introduction
Russia Evaluates Her Position from Continuities of Geography, Enemy and Historic Military and Ethnic Cultural Memory
Russia in Central Asia and the South Caucasus States (CASC) and Beyond
Conclusion
References
Anti-Democratic Malign Influence in the Time of COVID-19
Introduction
The Strategic Logic of Anti-Democratic Malign Influence
Social Trust
Trust in Experts/Authorities
Trust in Democratic Institutions and Processes
Psychosocial & Strategic Effects
Exploiting Extant Factors and Conditions
Global Democratic Recession Looming Towards Crisis
Pandemic Propaganda and Disinformation
A Perfect Storm for Anti-Democratic Malign Influence
Policy Implications
Conclusion
References
COVID, Democratic Fallout Versus New National Humiliation: China’s Perception and Strategy in the Middle East
The Fallout of COVID and the Marketplace of Democracy
Beijing’s Perception of Fear and Strongman Authoritarian Power
Beijing’s Middle East Calculation: Navigating the Status Quo
Turkey
Egypt
India
Strategic Alliance: Shifting Realpolitik Trajectory
A Short-, Medium- and Long-Term Projection
Short Term (2020 to 2025)
Medium Term (2025 to 2035)
Long Term (2035 to 2045)
Conclusion: Confronting the Future
References
Russia’s Energy Ambitions in the Middle East
Introduction
Mitigating Competition
Attracting Investment
Creating Political Leverage
Russian Energy Companies and the Kremlin
The Fall and Raise of the OPEC+
Conclusion
References
The COVID-19 Pandemic: Gray Rhinos, Complexity, Prediction, and National Security
Introduction
On Gray Rhinos
The COVID-19 Pandemic Gray Rhino
Prediction
The COVID-19 Pandemic as a Complex System
Modeling Gray Rhino Complex Systems
Requirements
Theoretical Requirements
Methodological Requirements
Data Requirements
Talent Requirements
Need for a National Capability
References
The Russo-Persian Cooperation in the Syrian Civil War: A New Battleground in the Great Power Competition
Introduction
Questions
Statement of Methods
Theoretical Framework
Syrian Civil War, A New Indication in Russia-Iran Relation
Iran’s Involvement in Syria
Russia and Her Involvement in Syria
The Outcome and Future of Russo-Persian Cooperation in Syria
Conclusion
References
Radicalization to Violent Extremism: A Creeping Crisis, an Examination Through the PAR Model
Introduction
Creeping Crisis
Understanding Radicalization
Models of Radicalization
Actor Network Theory Lens
Discussion
Pressure and Release (PAR) Model
The Progression of Vulnerability
Conclusion
References
Great Power Competition in the Digital Age
Introduction
First, the “Intangible” Challenge
Second, the More “Tangible” Challenge
Conclusion
Cognitive Security and Emotional Warfare: The Science and Practice for Understanding, Analyzing and Preventing the Spread of Violent Extremism in the CENTCOM AOR
Background
Cognitive Versus Emotional Paradigm in Terrorism and Warfare: A Brief Historical and Scientific Insight
The Human Domain Matrix (HDM): The Science and Practice of Conflict Engagement
Interdisciplinary Science of the Human Domain Matrix
Weaponizing the Mind: From Trauma to Terrorism
Conclusion
References
Caring for the Whole Soldier in the Wake of COVID-19
Introduction
The Effects of COVID-19 on the U.S. Military to Date
A Proposal for Revising the Two-Dimensional Model of the Whole Soldier
Integrating Each Aspect of Spirituality into Care for the Whole Soldier
Spirituality Assessments and Care for the Whole Soldier
Spiritual Practices for Soldiers’ Daily Lives
Captain Harold Earls
Corporal Jonathon Grajales
Conclusion
References
Africa’s Strategic Pivots: From China’s Rise to Tradeoff Between Battling Covid-19 and Violent Extremism
Introduction
Why Is this Happening?
Rise of Covid-19
A Strategic Pivot
Why the Slow Spread Initially?
Other Possible Reasons
African Youth
Climate
Lower Population Density
Less Travel
Excellent Masks
Effective Cross-Border Cooperation
Indirect Protection from Other Treatments
A Viral Mutation
Operational Success
The Initial Logic of a Lockdown
Rwanda Success
African Success Story
Spun into Action
African Ingenuity
Sign of Success
Ethiopia Role Model
Community Activism
Making Kenyon Masks
Africa’s Own Solutions
Relentless Pandemic and Rising Concerns
Another Strategic Pivot
Double Whammy
Fertile Ground for Terrorists
Services
Militaries Squeezed on All Sides
Violent Attacks
African Governments Losing Ground
Redeploying
Coronavirus Pandemic
References
Counter Intuitiveness of Influence Science, Social Judgment Theory, and Strategic Messaging in Great Power Competition
Introduction
Counter-Intuitiveness of Influence Science
The Science of Influence
Social Judgement Theory
Applied Message Development
Information Activities in the Great Power Competition
Conceptual Influence Model
Influence and Rapport
China
China’s Overt Information Initiatives
China’s COVID Diplomacy
Media Expansion and Acquisition
Information Advantage Gained Through Economic Leverage
U.S. Messaging
Russia
Conclusions
Summary
References
