This book introduces the Political Economy of Alternative Economic Futures for the Greek economy up to 2035. The analysis is not restricted to the presentation of a series of forecasts but aims to develop a comprehensive framework for Greece’s future. The analysis covers five realms regarding alternative economic futures, which outline the political economy of Greece: sustainable development; sustainable governance; inclusive growth; evolution of human behaviors; and dynamic growth. A growth, an unsustainable growth, a transformation, and a falldown scenario are generated based on the severity of key-uncertainty factors' effects.
Author(s): Panagiotis E. Petrakis, Pantelis C. Kostis, Kyriaki I. Kafka, Anna-Maria Kanzola
Series: The Political Economy of Greek Growth up to 2030
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Year: 2023
Language: English
Pages: 219
City: Cham
Preface
Acknowledgments
Contents
Introduction
Abbreviations
List of Figures
List of Tables
Part I Alternative Futures Analysis
1 Setting the Scenery: Factors Affecting the Future
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Tales from the Past Shaping the Future: Theory, Economic Crises, and Political Behaviors
1.2.1 Theory
1.2.2 The Recent Economic Crises and Political Behaviors
1.3 Connecting the Present with the Future: The Megatrends
1.4 Conclusions: Use of History, Scenario Building, and Foresight
References
2 Building Scenarios: The Four Economic Scenarios for Greek Alternative Economic Futures
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Step-By-Step Scenario Building: Theoretical and Practical Guide
2.3 The Oxford Global Economic Model (GEM) and Details for the Scenarios' Projections
2.4 The Two Versions of the Growth Scenario
2.5 The Three Scenarios Left: The Unsustainable Growth, the Transformation, and the Falldown
2.6 A Scenarios' Summary and Some Insights
References
3 Scenarios and Contextual Factors: Addressing the Implications
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Culture: An Indicator for the Future
3.3 Handling Uncertainty: Myopic or Forward-Looking Expectations?
3.4 In Place of Conclusions: Is There a Prevailing Scenario?
References
Part II The Past and the Present of the Greek economy
4 Sustainable Development
4.1 Introduction
4.2 The Evolution of Population and the Aging Problem
4.3 Environment Protection and the Ecological Footprint
4.4 Renewable Energy as a Source of Sustainable Development
4.5 The Rich Natural Resources of Greece
References
5 Sustainable Governance
5.1 Introduction
5.2 The Evolution of Governance Indicators: Divergence and Convergence During the Last Two Decades
5.3 The Improvement of Corruptions Perceptions During the Crisis of 2008
5.4 The Recrudescence of Economic Freedom
5.5 Confronting Terrorism and Money Laundering
Reference
6 Inclusive Growth
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Labor Market Conditions and Inclusivity
6.3 Participating in Education and Educational Quality
6.4 Personal Finance: Disposable Income and Household Conditions
6.5 People at Risk of Poverty and Social Protection Expenditure
6.6 Inequality, Material, and Social Deprivation in the Greek Economy
6.7 Health, Infant Mortality, and Healthcare Expenditure
References
7 Cultural Change and Development and Growth
7.1 Introduction
7.2 How Greeks Judge the Current Situation
7.3 Expectations about the Next 12 Months in the Greek Economy
7.4 The Low Institutional Trust in the Greek Society
7.5 Insecurity Hypothesis and Post-Materialism
References
8 The Dynamism of the Economy
8.1 Introduction
8.2 The Output Gap of the Greek Economy
8.3 The External Sector: Exports, Imports, and Current Account Balance
8.4 The Neuralgic Role of Consumption
8.5 Private vs. Public Investments and the FDIs
8.6 The Unsatisfactory Return of Savings
8.7 The Troubled Housing Market
8.8 PMI and Production in Manufacturing
8.9 Public Deficits, Debt, Revenues, and Expenditures in the Greek economy
8.10 Labor Productivity Growth
Reference
Part III Alternative Futures for Greece: The Five Scenarios Under the Five Pillars of Economic Development
9 Alternative Economic Futures and Sustainable Development
9.1 introduction
9.2 Population Dynamics: The Aging Problem in the Future
9.3 Environmental Issues as a Cornerstone
9.4 Renewable Energy Sources are the Key to Sustainable Development
References
10 Sustainable Governance and Alternative Economic Futures
10.1 Introduction
10.2 The Future of the Greek Governance Indicators
10.3 Corruptions Perceptions: A Way to a “Cleaner” Economy
10.4 Is There a Chance for a Μore Free Economy?
References
11 The Impact of Alternative Economic Futures on Inclusive Growth
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Labor Market Conditions and the Greek Economy in the Future
11.3 Human Capital and Education: Qualitative Characteristics
11.4 Household Conditions Under Different Scenarios
11.5 Poverty and Inequalities in the Greek Economy’s Future
11.6 Inclusiveness and the Health of the Greeks
References
12 Cultural Change and Alternative Futures
12.1 Introduction
12.2 How Are Greeks About to Judge Their Current Situation in the Future
12.3 The Formation of Expectations in the Future
12.4 Trust in European and Government Institutions
References
13 The Dynamism of the Economy and the Alternative Futures
13.1 Introduction
13.2 How Far from the Potential Output Will the Greek Economy Be in the Future?
13.3 The Greek External Sector in the Future
13.4 The Consumption-Based Greek Model
13.5 Investments as a Key for the Future Outcomes
13.6 The Future of Housing in the Greek Economy
13.7 Manufacturing Production and Challenges
13.8 Public Economics and Alternative Futures
13.9 Productivity up to 2035
References
Index
