As global great power competition intensifies, there is growing concern about the geopolitical future of Antarctica. This book delves into the question of how can we anticipate, prepare for, and potentially even shape that future? Now in its 60th year, the Antarctic Treaty System has been comparatively resilient and successful in governing the Antarctic region. This book assesses how our ability to make accurate predictions about the future of the Antarctic Treaty System reduces rapidly in the face of political and biophysical complexity, uncertainty, and the passage of time. This poses a critical risk for organisations making long-range decisions about their policy, strategy, and investments in the frozen south.
Scenarios are useful planning tools for considering futures beyond the limits of standard prediction. This book explores how a multi-disciplinary focus of classical geopolitics might be applied systematically to create scenarios on Antarctic futures that are plausible, rigorous, and robust. This book illustrates a pragmatic, nine-step scenario development process, using the topical issue of military activities in Antarctica. Along the way, the authors make suggestions to augment current theory and practice of geopolitical scenario planning. In doing so, this book seeks to rediscover the importance of a classical (primarily state-centric) lens on Antarctic geopolitics, which in recent decades has been overshadowed by more critical perspectives.
This book is written for anyone with an interest in the rigorous assessment of geopolitical futures - in Antarctica and beyond.
Author(s): Jeffrey McGee, David Edmiston, Marcus Haward
Series: Springer Polar Sciences
Publisher: Springer
Year: 2021
Language: English
Pages: 222
City: Cham
Foreword
Preface
Acknowledgments
Praise for The Future of Antarctica
Contents
About the Authors
Abbreviations
List of Figures
List of Tables
1 Introduction
1.1 The Antarctic Treaty System: Responsive, Resilient—And Largely Successful
1.2 The Antarctic Treaty System: Fears for the Future?
1.3 Antarctic Futures and Scenarios
1.4 Antarctic Futures: A Multi-disciplinary Approach
1.5 Classical and Critical Geopolitics
1.6 Towards a Critical Realist Geopolitics?
1.7 What This Book is About
References
2 History of Antarctic Territorial Claims and Spatial Contestation
2.1 Introduction
2.2 The ‘Antarctic Problem’
2.3 Geopolitics and Resolving the ‘Antarctic Problem’
2.4 The Antarctic Treaty: Setting Aside Geopolitical Differences?
2.5 Geopolitics and the Future of Antarctica
References
3 Scenario Analysis and the Limits of Prediction
3.1 Overview
3.2 What Are Scenarios?
3.3 Ten Key Properties of Scenarios
3.4 Reality Check: Scenarios and Our Need to Predict
3.5 Plausibility and the ‘aha’ Moment
3.6 A Revised Model: Introducing the Zone of Plausibility
3.7 Dissecting Turbulence, Uncertainty, Novelty and Ambiguity (TUNA)
3.8 Summary
References
4 Objectives, Approaches and Techniques
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Objectives, Approaches, and Techniques
4.3 Framing Before Reframing
4.4 Level 1—Define Your Strategic Objectives
4.5 Level 2—Identify Your General Approach/es
4.6 A Scenario Toolbox
4.7 Deductive Approaches: Intuitive, Archetypal, and Normative
4.8 Deductive (Intuitive) Approaches
4.9 Deductive (Archetype) Approaches
4.10 Deductive (Normative) Approaches
4.11 Inductive Approaches
4.12 Quantitative approaches
4.13 Hybrid approaches
4.14 Integrated approaches
4.15 Scoping approaches
4.16 Engagement approaches
4.17 Level 3—Select Your Specific Technique/s
4.18 The ‘Intuitive Logics 2 × 2’ Technique
4.18.1 Step 1: Identify Your Scenario Standpoint
4.18.2 Step 2: Set Your Time Horizon
4.18.3 Step 3: Identify the Key Driving Forces
4.18.4 Step 4: Distinguish Critical Uncertainties from Predetermined Elements
4.18.5 Step 5: Rank Critical Uncertainties by Importance and Uncertainty
4.18.6 Step 6: Select Your General Approach/es
4.18.7 Step 7: Construct the Scenario Matrix
4.18.8 Step 8: Develop the Scenario Narratives
4.18.9 Step 9: ‘Wind Tunnel Test’ Current Strategy and Prepare Policy Advice
4.19 Insights from the Process and Adding Depth: An Alternative to IL 2 × 2—Towards ‘IL 5’
4.20 Summary
References
5 Antarctic Geopolitics: Background
5.1 Overview
5.2 A Brief Recap: Geopolitics—Classical, Critical, and Other Approaches
5.3 Antarctica and Classical Geopolitical Analysis
5.4 Nine Themes for the Driving Forces of Antarctic Geopolitics
5.5 Challenges for the Scenario Planner!
5.6 Four Dynamics of Driving Forces
5.7 Pulling These Together: The ‘Dynamic Signature’ of a Driving Force
5.8 Nine Themes for Driving Forces
5.9 Summary
References
6 Militarisation of Antarctica
6.1 Introduction
6.2 History of Militarisation in Antarctica
6.3 Managing Militarisation Under the Antarctic Treaty 1959
6.4 Traditional Military/Strategic Threats in Antarctica
6.5 ‘Dual-Use’ Equipment in Antarctica
6.6 Summary
References
7 Antarctic Militarisation: Scenario Analysis
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Step 1: Identify Your Scenario Standpoint
7.3 Step 2: Set Your Time Horizon
7.4 Step 3: Identify Driving Forces of Antarctic Militarisation
7.5 Step 4: Classify Driving Forces as Predetermined Elements or Critical Uncertainties
7.6 Step 5: Rank Driving Forces by Importance and Uncertainty
7.7 Step 6: Select Your General Approach/es
7.8 Step 7: Construct the Scenario Matrix
7.9 Summary
References
8 Antarctic Militarisation: Five Scenarios
8.1 Introduction
8.1.1 Scenario 1: Splendid Isolation
8.1.2 Scenario 2: Quarantine
8.1.3 Scenario 3: Stealth
8.1.4 Scenario 4: Cold War II
8.1.5 IL 5: A Fifth Scenario for Antarctic Militarisation
8.1.6 Scenario 5: Pressures Managed
8.2 Step 9: Wind Tunnel Test Current Strategy and Prepare Policy Advice
8.3 Summary
Reference
9 Scenario Analysis and the Classical View of Antarctic Geopolitics
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Geopolitics: The Intersection of Power, Authority, and Space
9.2.1 Power
9.2.2 Military Power
9.2.3 Scientific and Logistical Power
9.2.4 Authority
9.2.5 Space
9.3 Antarctica Through a Classical Geopolitical Lens
9.3.1 Power and International Law
9.3.2 Antarctica and ‘Space in Rivalry Between States’
9.4 Summary
References
10 Conclusion
10.1 Our Objectives
10.2 Our Findings: Geopolitical Scenario Analysis
10.3 Our Findings: Geopolitical Futures for Antarctica
References
Index
