This volume studies the effects of alternative exchange rate regimes on accession countries in Central and Eastern Europe. The study uses different types of macro models and studies the sustainability and robustness of monetary policy practices.
Author(s): Lucio Vinhas De Souza, Bas Van Aarle
Year: 2005
Language: English
Pages: 256
Cover......Page 0
Contents......Page 7
List of Tables......Page 10
List of Figures......Page 12
List of Abbreviations......Page 14
Preface......Page 16
Foreword......Page 19
List of Contributors......Page 21
Part I: General Policy Issues for the Accession Countries......Page 25
1 Introduction......Page 27
2 Participating in the Euroarea: medium- to long-term effects......Page 31
3 Meeting the requirements of Euroarea entry: short-term implications......Page 39
4 Conclusions......Page 44
1 Introduction......Page 47
2 The optimum currency area theory......Page 49
3 The endogeneity hypothesis of OCA criteria and EMU enlargement......Page 54
4 Indices of endogenous optimum currency area......Page 58
5 Conclusions......Page 60
1 Introduction......Page 63
2 Modelling the exchange rate regime......Page 64
3 Data and procedures......Page 67
4 Estimation results......Page 68
5 Welfare effects of exchange rate regime choices......Page 72
6 Non-structural estimation of the effects of domestic and foreign shocks......Page 74
7 Conclusions......Page 76
1 Introduction......Page 78
2 A small macroeconomic model of Accession Countries......Page 80
3 Model estimation......Page 83
4 Model simulation......Page 94
1 Introduction......Page 103
2 Monetary view on forex rate determination......Page 104
3 The nominal forex regime and transitional growth......Page 109
4 The real forex regime and transitional growth......Page 118
5 Conclusions......Page 122
Part II: Country-specific Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Questions in the Run-up to Monetary Union......Page 125
1 Introduction......Page 127
2 Money-based stabilization policy (1991–95)......Page 130
3 Price and real exchange rate stability dual targeting policy (1996–2001)......Page 135
4 Exchange-rate-based stabilization policy and accession to ERM II (2001–)......Page 143
5 Conclusions......Page 150
1 Introduction......Page 154
2 Main features of the Estonian monetary regime......Page 155
3 The core features of the Estonian economy......Page 159
4 The MTM in Estonia......Page 175
5 Conclusions......Page 184
1 Introduction......Page 188
2 DIT in transitional economies......Page 189
3 Methodology and data......Page 192
4 Asset price reactions to changes in the CNB's official interest rate before DIT......Page 196
5 Asset price reactions to changes in the official interest rate in the DIT period......Page 198
6 Conclusions......Page 201
1 Introduction......Page 204
2 Concepts of equilibrium exchange rate......Page 205
3 Empirical estimations......Page 209
4 FEER calculations......Page 211
5 BEER estimations......Page 217
6 What should be the entry exchange rate?......Page 220
7 Conclusions......Page 225
2 The recent history of the Hungarian exchange rate and monetary regimes......Page 227
3 The Euroarea entry date: arguments, prospects and expectations......Page 233
4 Strategic issues related to ERM II participation......Page 243
5 Conclusions......Page 248
References......Page 249
E......Page 261
P......Page 262
Y......Page 263
