Contrary to our stereotypical views, dictators often introduce elections in which they refrain from employing blatant electoral fraud. Why do electoral reforms happen in autocracies? Do these elections destabilize autocratic rule? The Dictator's Dilemma at the Ballot Box argues that strong autocrats who can garner popular support become less dependent on coercive electioneering strategies. When autocrats fail to design elections properly, elections backfire in the form of coups, protests, and the opposition's stunning election victories. The book's theoretical implications are tested on a battery of cross-national analyses with newly collected data on autocratic elections and in-depth comparative case studies of the two Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
Author(s): Masaaki Higashijima
Series: Weiser Center For Emerging Democracies
Edition: 1
Publisher: University Of Michigan Press
Year: 2022
Language: English
Commentary: TruePDF
Pages: 367
Tags: Dictatorship; Elections: Corrupt Practices; Elections: Corrupt Practices: Case Studies; Elections: Corrupt Practices: Kazakhstan; Elections: Corrupt Practices: Kyrgyzstan
Cover
Half title
Series title
Title
Copyright
Dedication
Contents
Acknowledgments
List of Figures
List of Tables
List of Abbreviations
Note on Translation and Transliteration
Part I | Puzzles and Arguments
1 | Introduction
1.1 | Twin Puzzles of Autocratic Elections
1.2 | Argument in Brief
1.3 | Contributions
1.4 | Research Design, Key Empirical Findings, and the Organization of the Book
2 | A Theory of Autocratic Elections
2.1 | Introduction
2.2 | Fundamental Problems of Autocratic Rule and the Roles of Elections in Dictatorships
2.3 | The Electoral Dilemma in Dictatorships
2.4 | The Game of Autocratic Elections: The Dictator, Ruling Elites, and the Opposition
2.5 | The Dictator’s Tools at the Ballot Box: Electoral Manipulation and Economic Maneuvering
2.6 | The Distribution of Mobilization Capabilities and Autocratic Election Design
2.7 | Unintended Consequences of Autocratic Elections: Post-Electoral Political Conflicts
2.8 | Operationalization and Preliminary Analysis: Mobilization Capabilities and the Correlates of Victory Margins
2.9 | Conclusion
Part II | Cross-National Explorations
3 | Blatant Electoral Fraud
3.1 | Variation in Blatant Electoral Fraud under Authoritarian Regimes
3.2 | Literature on Electoral Fraud
3.3 | Blatant Electoral Fraud and the Dictator’s Mobilization Capabilities
3.4 | Cross-National Statistical Analysis of Blatant Electoral Fraud
3.5 | Conclusion
4 | Institutional Manipulation
4.1 | The Puzzle of Electoral System Choice in Dictatorships
4.2 | Literature on Electoral System Design
4.3 | The Costs and Benefits of SMD and PR in Authoritarian Regimes
4.4 | The Dictator’s Mobilization Capabilities and the Strategic Choice of Electoral Systems
4.5 | Cross-National Statistical Analysis of Institutional Manipulation
4.6 | Conclusion
5 | Economic Maneuvering
5.1 | Autocracies and Political Business Cycles
5.2 | A Trade-off between Electoral Manipulation and Economic Maneuvering
5.3 | Cross-National Statistical Analysis of Economic Maneuvering
5.4 | Conclusion
6 | Backfiring at the Ballot Box
6.1 | Popular Protests and Leadership Turnover in the Aftermath of Autocratic Elections
6.2 | Literature on Post-Electoral Political Order
6.3 | Destabilizing Effects of Autocratic Elections
6.4 | Cross-National Statistical Analysis of Post-Electoral Political Conflicts
6.5 | Conclusion
Part III | Comparative Case Studies
7 | From Electoral Manipulation to Economic Maneuvering: Nazarbaev’s Kazakhstan
7.1 | Introduction
7.2 | Limited Liberalization and Autocratization
7.3 | Electoral Manipulation in Kazakhstan
7.4 | The Strengthening of Nazarbaev’s Mobilization Capabilities
7.5 | Economic Maneuvering in Kazakhstan
7.6 | Conclusion
8 | From Electoral Manipulation to Autocratic Breakdown: Akaev’s Kyrgyzstan
8.1 | Introduction
8.2 | From Electoral Democracy to Electoral Authoritarianism
8.3 | Electoral Manipulation and Post-Electoral Protests in Kyrgyzstan
8.4 | The Weakening of Akaev’s Mobilization Capabilities
8.5 | Economic Maneuvering in Kyrgyzstan
8.6 | Conclusion
9 | Conclusion
9.1 | The Main Findings
9.2 | Policy Implications
9.3 | Future Research Avenues
Appendix
References
Index
