product iamge

The Deutsche Bank Guide to Exchange-Rate Determination

This document was uploaded by one of our users. The uploader already confirmed that they had the permission to publish it. If you are author/publisher or own the copyright of this documents, please report to us by using this DMCA report form.

Download
Search on Amazon

Simply click on the Download Book button.

Yes, Book downloads on Ebookily are 100% Free.

Sometimes the book is free on Amazon As well, so go ahead and hit "Search on Amazon"

Author(s): Michael R. Rosenberg, David Folkerts-Landau
Publisher: Deutsche Bank
Year: 2002

Language: English
Commentary: A Survey of Exchange-Rate Forecasting Models and Strategies
Pages: 160
Tags: Финансово-экономические дисциплины;Финансы;

Introduction 4
Exchange Rate Determination in the Short Run 7
Currency Forecasting Using Technical Analysis 11
Sentiment and Positioning Indicators 21
Currency Options Market 22
Order Flow and the Determination of Exchange Rates 24
Investor Positioning and the Trend in Exchange Rates 27
Risk Appetite Shifts and Currency Trends 28
Exchange Rate Determination in the Long Run 31
Purchasing Power Parity 33
The Macroeconomic-Balance Approach to Long-Run
Exchange-Rate Determination 42
The Real Long-Run Equilibrium Exchange Rate 43
Productivity Trends and Exchange Rates 46
Terms of Trade and Exchange Rates 50
Net International Investment and the Equilibrium Exchange Rate 51
Long-Term Cycles in Exchange Rates 53
Overshooting Exchange Rates 60
Exchange Rate Determination in the Medium Run 63
International Parity Conditions 65
Real Interest-Rate Differential Model 67
Forward-Rate Bias Strategy 72
Current-Account Imbalances and the Determination of
Exchange Rates 77
Capital Flows and Exchange Rates 86
Mundell-Fleming Model 96
Monetary Approach 104
Portfolio-Balance Approach 108
Fiscal Policy 115
Economic Growth 119
Central-Bank Intervention 124
Anticipating Currency Crises in Emerging Markets 129
References 155