The Democratic Peace and Territorial Conflict in the Twentieth Century

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Series-title......Page 5
Title......Page 7
Copyright......Page 8
Dedication......Page 9
Contents......Page 11
Figures......Page 12
Tables......Page 13
Acknowledgments......Page 19
Introduction......Page 21
The debate over norms vs. institutional accountability......Page 26
The puzzle of intra-regime variation in conflict behavior......Page 29
The debate over audience costs and democratic institutions......Page 32
The debate over the strategic behavior of democratic states in disputes with non-democratic states......Page 33
The debate over international-level vs. domestic-level explanations of foreign policy behavior......Page 36
What are the challenges for democratic leaders when managing disputes with authoritarian regimes?......Page 38
The interests of third parties in questions of war and peace over disputed territory......Page 39
Dyadic studies......Page 40
An alternative research design......Page 46
Territorial disputes and testing the democratic peace......Page 50
Conclusion......Page 52
Alternative paths to conflict and cooperation......Page 54
Analyzing territorial disputes......Page 64
The decision to challenge the status quo......Page 65
The decision to concede in negotiations......Page 69
The decision to escalate and risk war......Page 71
Conclusion......Page 75
A model of international politics......Page 76
Premise 1: International anarchy and the pursuit of foreign policy goals......Page 77
Premise 2: The value of relative military strength......Page 78
Premise 3: Uncertainty in estimating the military strength and resolve of adversaries......Page 79
Hypotheses......Page 80
Measurement of variables for empirical tests......Page 83
Military balance......Page 84
Common security ties......Page 86
Conclusion......Page 87
4 Domestic institutions and the Political Accountability Model......Page 88
Premise 1: The primacy of retaining office for incumbent leaders......Page 89
Premise 2: The strategic behavior of political opposition......Page 90
Premise 3: Differences in domestic political institutions are a source of variation in political accountability......Page 92
Premise 4: The impact of political vulnerability on foreign policy......Page 94
Comparisons across political systems......Page 95
Comparisons within political systems......Page 100
Comparisons among democratic leaders......Page 101
Comparisons among non-democratic leaders......Page 107
Comparisons among dyads......Page 109
Measuring the accountability of democratic and non-democratic leaders......Page 111
Measuring accountability among democratic leaders......Page 115
Measuring political security among non-democratic leaders......Page 116
Measuring political vulnerability of states in dyads......Page 118
Conclusion......Page 119
Political Norms Model......Page 121
Premise 1: Norms are principles for political bargaining......Page 122
Premise 2: Domestic political institutions are a source of political norms......Page 124
Comparing democratic and non-democratic political systems......Page 128
Comparisons within political systems......Page 132
Comparisons among dyads......Page 133
Comparing states with non-violent vs. violent political norms......Page 137
Comparisons within political systems......Page 140
Comparisons among dyads......Page 141
Conclusion......Page 142
Political Affinity Model......Page 144
Premise 1: Foreign policy as a means of retaining political office......Page 145
Premise 2: Group membership as a source of political identity formation......Page 146
Premise 3: Political conflict is greater between groups than within groups......Page 147
Hypotheses......Page 149
Similar and dissimilar political regimes......Page 153
Recent transitions to political similarity......Page 154
Political insecurity and politically dissimilar states......Page 155
Conclusion......Page 156
7 Empirical results for decisions to challenge the status quo......Page 158
Estimation of the Challenge the Status Quo Stage......Page 159
Results for the International Politics Model......Page 165
Results for hypotheses that compare leaders of democratic and non-democratic states......Page 173
Results for hypotheses that draw comparisons among leaders of democratic and non-democratic states......Page 179
Results for hypotheses that compare across dyads......Page 185
Results for hypotheses that compare leaders with strong vs. weak nonviolent norms......Page 189
Results for hypotheses that compare leaders among either democratic or non-democratic states......Page 193
Results for hypotheses that compare within and across dyads......Page 197
Results for the Political Affinity Model......Page 203
Conclusion......Page 206
Estimation of the Negotiations Stage......Page 209
Results of statistical tests......Page 212
Results for the International Politics Model......Page 214
Results for Political Accountability Model......Page 218
Results for hypotheses that compare leaders of democratic and non-democratic states......Page 219
Results for hypotheses that draw comparisons among leaders of democratic and non-democratic States......Page 225
Results for hypotheses that compare across dyads......Page 231
Results for the Political Norms Model......Page 234
Results for hypotheses that compare leaders with strong vs. weak nonviolent norms......Page 235
Results for hypotheses that compare leaders among either democratic or non-democratic states......Page 239
Results for hypotheses that compare within and across dyads......Page 241
Results for the Political Affinity Model......Page 243
Conclusion......Page 248
Estimation of the Escalation Stage......Page 251
Results of statistical tests......Page 252
Results for the International Politics Model......Page 253
Results for hypotheses that compare leaders of democratic and non-democratic states......Page 261
Results for hypotheses that draw comparisons among leaders of democratic and non-democratic states......Page 267
Results for hypotheses that compare across dyads......Page 271
Results for hypotheses that compare leaders with strong vs. weak nonviolent norms......Page 277
Results for hypotheses that compare leaders among either democratic or non-democratic states......Page 281
Results for hypotheses that compare within and across dyads......Page 283
Results for the Political Affinity Model......Page 289
Conclusion......Page 293
Review of empirical findings......Page 297
The payoffs of adopting an alternative research design......Page 304
Comparing the explanatory power of Political Norms vs. Political Accountability Models......Page 306
The puzzle of variation in the conflict behavior of democratic and non-democratic states......Page 307
The debate over audience costs and democratic institutions......Page 308
The debate over international-level vs. domestic-level explanations of foreign policy behavior......Page 310
Policy implications......Page 311
Is democracy an asset or liability for foreign policy-makers?......Page 312
Promoting the resolution of international disputes......Page 313
Third-party efforts at mediation and extended deterrence......Page 314
The Political Norms Model......Page 315
The Political Accountability Model......Page 316
General research design for studying international disputes......Page 317
Territorial conflict in the international system......Page 318
How to code disputes pursued intermittently......Page 321
How to code multiple claims between the same parties......Page 322
Coding by delimitation vs. demarcation......Page 323
How to code latent disputes......Page 324
List of dispute cases......Page 325
Case summaries of territorial disputes in Europe, 1919–1995......Page 329
Bibliography of sources listed in case summaries......Page 354
List of dispute cases......Page 360
Case summaries of territorial disputes in the Near East, Middle East, and North Africa 1919–1995......Page 365
Bibliography of sources listed in case summaries......Page 390
List of dispute cases......Page 395
Case summaries of territorial disputes in Africa, 1919–1995......Page 397
Bibliography of sources listed in case summaries......Page 412
List of dispute cases......Page 416
Case summaries of territorial disputes in Central Asia, the Far East, and Pacific......Page 419
Bibliography of sources listed in case summaries......Page 444
List of dispute cases......Page 452
Case summaries of territorial disputes in the Americas......Page 454
Bibliography of sources listed in case summaries......Page 476
Bibliography......Page 481
Index......Page 505