Analytical report. — Jamestown Foundation, 2010. — 41 p.This Jamestown Foundation Report on the Crimea is divided into nine sections. The first and second sections present the Executive Summary and Key Findings in the report. The third section explores the Crimean conundrum. The fourth analyzes the Ukrainian-Georgian relationship, Ukraine’s response to the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia and Russia’s de facto annexation of two separatist enclaves. The fifth section surveys Russia’s territorial claims over the Crimea and the port of Sevastopol within the context of Ukraine perceived by Russia as an allegedly “fragile,” “artificial” and “failed” state.
The sixth section analyzes Russia’s attempts to revive its great power status in the Eurasian region and how this policy affects Ukrainian-Russian relations. The seventh section investigates Ukraine’s security options in the domestic and international spheres in light of the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia and Russian territorial claims over the Crimea. The eighth section investigates the possibility of resetting Ukrainian-Russian relations following Yanukovych’s election and how this may impact the Crimea through three potential scenarios: disenchantment with Russia, accidental conflict and removal by the opposition. Lastly, the ninth section provides concluding observations to what has earlier been discussed in the Jamestown Foundation report.Executive Summary
Key Findings
The Crimean Conundrum
Ukraine, Georgia and Russia
The Crimea: Europe’s Next Flashpoint?
Russian Security Policy Toward Ukraine
Ukrainian Security Policy Toward Russia
Can President Yanukovych Reset Relations with Russia?
Conclusion
