The resurgence of Russian power in the Arctic and High North will be a key consideration for NATO planners. The Alliance’s northern flank represents both a potential vulnerability due to its relative isolation and an area in which NATO enjoys options for horizontal escalation in a conflict. Moreover, as the effects of climate change create opportunities for both navigation and resource extraction, peacetime control over the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and a contest to establish effective administrative control in this area are likely. Disagreements regarding the degree of Russia’s jurisdiction over the NSR could, for example, simmer into a form of sub-threshold competition. The purpose of this Whitehall Paper will be to examine the balance of power between NATO and Russia in this critical region in order to establish the level of ambition that the capabilities being developed by Russia can support.
Author(s): Sidharth Kaushal, James Byrne, Joseph Byrne, Giangiuseppe Pili, Gary Somerville
Series: Whitehall Papers, 100
Publisher: RUSI
Year: 2022
Language: English
Pages: 111
City: Philadelphia
Cover
Title Page
Copyright Page
Table of Contents
Acknowledgements
About the Authors
Introduction
Methodology
Structure
I: The Strategic Context
Russian Interests in the Arctic
II: The Balance of Capabilities in the Subsurface Domain
The Capabilities of Russia and NATO
Anti-Submarine Warfare
NATO
Modelling Interactions Between NATO and Russian Forces in the High North
Analysis
III: Russian and NATO Surface Capabilities in the High North
The Surface Capabilities and Supporting Infrastructure of the Northern Fleet
Russia’s Reconnaissance Strike Complex
NATO
Modelling a Russian A2/AD Campaign in the High North
Analysis
IV: The Balance of Power in the Air
Russian Capabilities and Infrastructure in the High North
The Russian IADS in the Arctic
NATO Capabilities
Analysing the Balance of Power in the Air
V: Russian Land and Amphibious Capabilities in the Arctic
Russian Ground Forces in the Arctic: Force Structure and Equipment
Operational and Strategic Mobility
The Capabilities of Russian Ground Assets in the Arctic
Conclusions
Afterword
Appendix 1: Salvo Combat Models for Surface Warfare
Appendix 2: Submarine ASW Interactions
