The heart of the contemporary argument on climate change and energy transition focuses on how energy supply should be decarbonized to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. This book proposes an alternative approach. The Age of Fire: Why All Existing Forecasts on the Energy Transition Are Wrong finds that energy transitions are not driven by supply-side driven transformations, but rather by evolutions in demand patterns. This author argues that ― contrary to common thought ― the so-called Energy Transition has not yet started. Exploring the potential of recently emerged key technologies, The Age of Fire explores the extent to which key technologies can significantly transform demand, i.e., provide the same service at a fraction of cost or offer new services not yet imagined. The conclusion is that, to a large extent, energy paradigm shifts are beneficial for society and inevitable: leading to lower costs, more jobs, and fast adaptation. This book concludes with key novel recommendations for government institutions to accelerate the energy transition, which ― instead of replicating an approach from the past ― would truly help advance civilization.
Author(s): Vincent Petit
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing
Year: 2021
Language: English
Pages: 204
City: Singapore
Contents
Foreword
About the Author
List of Figures
Part 1 Setting the Debate Right
Chapter 1 What Truly Drives Energy Transitions Is Not What We May Think
Is there an alternative course that could be charted, building on lessons from the past?
What Is Energy?
A Brief History of Energy Transitions
The origins
The first industrial revolution
The second industrial revolution
A historic moment of innovation
Long, Complex and Entangled, Demand-Driven Transitions
Energy transitions overlap
Energy transitions take time and build on the old system
Energy transitions are a byproduct of demand innovations
The Upcoming Energy Transition Will Not Be as Experts Currently Frame It
References
Chapter 2 The Current So-Called Energy Transition Has Not Yet Started
The Initial Kick
What about a new energy transition then?
Not-So-New Energy Sources
“This giant [free] nuclear reactor in the sky” (E. Musk)
Other well-known renewable energies
The most recent energy source, the atom — but not mature yet
Energy density: Is it really a problem?
Energy return on investment
Energy is good as long as it is there
What should we take away from this brief review?
Digital Everywhere — Even Where We Do Not Expect It
Computing supremacy
Always on
Digital everywhere, for better or for worse
Science fiction, for real
Working at an Atomic Scale
Nothing Has Happened Yet
References
Chapter 3 The Upcoming Energy Transition Will Be a Byproduct of Greater Changes at Stake
An Inefficient Economy
Massive waste
Significant assets underutilization
A Fragile Society
Energy and resources
Trade
Social contract
A fragile society
Sinking the Spaceship
Pollution
Climate change
How to Take It Forward?
References
Part 2 The “North Star”
Chapter 4 There Is a Stunning Potential to Do the Same Things … Much Better
Ultra-Efficient Buildings
The Edge
Blended uses
Consumer-centricity
Space and energy optimization
“Electronic orchestra”
And construction will also evolve
Buildings are in for a significant change
Ultra-Efficient Industries
The twentieth-century disruption
Best available technologies
Process intensification
Electrification
Digital everywhere
Circularity at the core of the next wave of innovation
What then will the future of industrial production be?
Ultra-Efficient Mobility
Multimodal mobility
Electrification
Transport as a service
Autonomous vehicles
Future of transport
Ultra-Efficient Infrastructure
Huge energy productivity potential
Systemic efficiency
Smart sector integration
Infrastructure is in for a big disruption
The Next Stage of Economic Development Will Be Human-Centricity
What it means for energy
Drivers of and challenges to adoption
A human-centric economy
References
Chapter 5 Are We Too Big to Fail, or Is It the Opposite?
Fragile societies
Can recipes from the past still work?
Resilient Resources
Circularity
A new periodic table of new materials
Food and water revolution
Harvesting free, locally available energy
Electrons to replace molecules
Resilient resources system
Resilient Trade
Global but fragile
Circularity, again
Decentralized manufacturing
Additive manufacturing
Software supersedes hardware
Happy deglobalization in an interconnected world?
Resilient Society
Information
Education
Future of work
Financing
More equal, more fragmented, yet interconnected?
The Next Stage of Our Social Construct Will Be Decentralization
Technology to the rescue
More decentralization
Major impact on the energy system
Drivers of and challenges to adoption
A decentralized society
References
Chapter 6 When We Reconcile with Our Original Beliefs
Three Revolutions Must Take Place
Air pollution
Water pollution
Soil pollution
It can only get worse
The true cost of pollution
Reverse innovation
Three revolutions must take place
Agriculture Revolution
Food dependencies
Bridging the productivity gap
Twenty-first-century agriculture
Industrial Revolution
Industrial waste, at end-use
Industrial waste, in manufacturing
A new periodic table, with new materials
Energy Revolution
Global picture
Depollution at point of use
Depollution of energy supply, mainly an electricity problem
Two-thirds emissions reduction
The Central Role of Water
The Next Stage of Our Civilization Will Be About Reconnecting with Nature
Civilization progress, at the expense of the planet
Three revolutions to prevent a catastrophe and rebuild a contract with nature
Reverse innovation and a less Westernized philosophy of life
Major impact on the energy system
Drivers of and challenges to adoption
A civilization that reconciles itself with nature
References
Chapter 7 The Future Will Be Very Different from the Way We Currently Conceive It
The World in 30 Years
Innovation-on-demand is truly at the heart of the upcoming energy transition
Making the economy more efficient
Building a more resilient society
Reinventing a harmonious relationship with nature
A new world is taking shape
The Age of Fire Is Over
Unexpected changes to the energy system
Significant evolution of existing demand
Rise of digital technologies in the energy mix
New demand for twenty-first-century agriculture
New demand in a water-scarce world
Other rebounds in new demand
The Age of Fire Is Over
Hence the title of this book
Critical impact on power infrastructure
The world in 30 years will look very different from what we think
References
Part 3 Riding the Inevitable
Chapter 8 Let’s Not Be Disappointed: It Will Mostly Look Like an Imperfect Patchwork of Changes
Different Innovations, Different Adoptions
Enabling Adoption: A Deeper Look
Buildings
Industry
Mobility
Agriculture
Water
Society
Infrastructure
Five Key, Entangled Challenges, and What to Take Away from Them
Technology
Business models
Competency and culture
Policies
New economies
Entangled challenges
What to take away?
References
Chapter 9 What Will Matter Now Is to Roll Up Our Sleeves
Accelerating Adoption: What It Will Take to Change
Unpacking the issue
Different timings per sector: Buildings and infrastructure
Different timings per sector: Mobility
Different timings per sector: Industry
Different timings per sector: Agriculture and water
Different timings per sector: Social innovations
Putting a Timeline to Change
Only at the beginning of the change process
Interdependent innovations
Policies key enabler
Can we sketch a timeline?
Priming the Pump of Change
References
Conclusion It’s Only the Beginning … Good News!
Change the lens through which we look at energy transitions
The Age of Fire Is Over
Not all this will happen overnight though
Lead by hope
Reference
Index
