Technical Analysis Plain and Simple: Charting the Markets in Your Language

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“This book is an excellent primer. As a proponent of the art-versus-science school of technical analysis, his primary focus is on the practical aspects of chart reading and how to translate the intelligence derived from charts into investment decisions. If you have ever wondered what technical analysis is, or how you could get started doing it, this is a good place to start.”

John Bollinger, CFA, CMT, President, Bollinger Capital Management

 

“Here is the place to discover why the RSI goes up while the price is going down, how to measure potential moves from a breakout, how not to look at a chart with preconceived notions of what the market will do--‘Let the market talk....’ The advice is above all practical. [This is] a book to own, particularly in the earlier stages of your investment career.”

Michael Smyrk, STA Journal

 

“Finally, an easy-to-understand explanation of how technical analysis works! This primer shows investors how to spot trends and patterns in the markets that can help them choose winning stocks. Full of practical advice, this is a must have for both individual and professional investors.”

Susie Gharib, Coanchor, PBS Nightly Business Report

 

The Best-Selling Introduction to Technical Analysis: Updated with New Examples, Techniques, and Guidance!

  • Fully updated with new coverage of bubbles, sector rotation, and rare “black swan” market events

Technical analysis offers powerful, objective tools for picking stocks and making money--and in today’s market environment, that makes it more indispensable than ever. Unfortunately, most technical analysis books confuse investors instead of enlightening them. In this clear, practical, fully updated book, Barron’s Online technical analysis columnist Michael N. Kahn introduces proven technical analysis techniques in simple language that any investor can understand and use.

 

Kahn explains how technical analysis works and then teaches you how to read charts and translate them into investment decisions. You’ll learn how to use technical analysis to complement your current approach to stock selection, discover what makes a stock look promising, and objectively assess both risk and reward.

 

This completely revised third edition contains many new examples reflecting today’s transformed market environment. You’ll find detailed new coverage of recognizing bubbles, including real estate (2006), oil (2008), and bonds (2009). Kahn presents powerful new insights into the relationship between technical analysis and market psychology and crucial, up-to-date guidance on sector rotation in rapidly changing markets. He also presents a full chapter on navigating through chaotic, once-in-a-millennium, “black-swan” market events.

 

  • Why technical analysis works Bringing real objectivity to investment decision-making
  • Chart patterns: See the forest and the trees Recognizing markets that are changing, need a rest, or are about to take off
  • Understand the central importance of price... And what you must know about volume, time, and investor sentiment
  • Down the road: a taste of advanced technical analysis Candlesticks, cycles, Elliott waves, and how to debunk those guys on TV

Author(s): Michael N. Kahn
Edition: 3
Publisher: FT Press
Year: 2010

Language: English
Pages: 353

Contents......Page 6
Acknowledgments......Page 18
About the Author......Page 20
Preface......Page 22
About This Book......Page 26
How to Get the Most from This Book......Page 32
Part I: A FEW THINGS YOU’LL NEED TO KNOW BEFORE YOU BEGIN......Page 36
The Past......Page 38
Technical Market Theory......Page 41
For Fundamentalists......Page 45
2 WHAT IS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS?......Page 48
Components......Page 49
What Is the Market?......Page 51
A Picture Is Worth a Thousand Words......Page 54
What Good Is That?......Page 55
Tea Leaves? Crystal Ball?......Page 56
What About Earnings?......Page 57
Conclusion......Page 58
Bar Chart......Page 60
Support and Resistance......Page 61
Trends......Page 62
Breakout......Page 64
Continuation Patterns......Page 65
Momentum......Page 66
Divergence......Page 67
Part II: THE CORE OF CHART ANALYSIS......Page 68
What Is Really Going on to Form the Charts?......Page 70
Indecision and Alignment of Needs......Page 71
The Herding Effect......Page 72
Markets Are Scalable......Page 75
6 WHAT ARE SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN THE MARKETS?......Page 76
What Causes Support and Resistance Levels to Be Penetrated?......Page 77
Perceptions Are Reality......Page 78
Trendlines......Page 82
Fan Lines......Page 87
Less Is More......Page 90
Multiple Time Frames......Page 92
Moving Averages......Page 93
9 CHART PATTERNS—WHEN THE MARKET NEEDS A REST......Page 98
Rectangles......Page 99
Triangles......Page 100
Flags......Page 101
Cup with Handle......Page 102
Head and Shoulders......Page 108
Double Tops and Bottoms......Page 111
One-Day Reversals......Page 113
Rounded Tops and Bottoms......Page 114
Spikes......Page 115
Breakaway Gaps......Page 118
Exhaustion Gaps......Page 120
Other Gaps......Page 122
The Right Way......Page 124
The Wrong Way......Page 126
Part III: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IN THE REAL WORLD......Page 130
13 WHAT IS THERE OTHER THAN PRICE?......Page 132
Does the Market Have Bad Breadth?......Page 133
Sectors and Industry Groups......Page 137
Momentum......Page 138
Divergence......Page 139
14 VOLUME......Page 144
Accumulation and Distribution......Page 145
Cumulative Volume......Page 146
Proportion......Page 152
Cycles......Page 154
Sentiment Indicators......Page 156
Measuring Expectations That Drive Markets......Page 158
Subjective......Page 163
Social Mood......Page 164
17 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS REALLY IS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS......Page 166
The Major Markets......Page 167
Prove It!......Page 170
18 JUST WHAT MAKES A STOCK (BOND, COMMODITY) LOOK GOOD?......Page 172
Trend and Momentum......Page 173
Volume......Page 176
Relative Strength (the Market, Sectors, and Individual Stocks)......Page 177
Sector Selection......Page 182
Basing and Breakouts......Page 183
How Can Potential Profit Be Measured?......Page 184
Is That a Good Trade?......Page 188
Sometimes the Best Trade Is the One You Don’t Make......Page 192
Technician’s License......Page 196
Let the Market Talk......Page 199
Theme and Variation......Page 202
In the Real World, Nothing Is Textbook so Stay Flexible......Page 206
Part IV: THE ACTUAL PROCESS OF INVESTING......Page 210
The Questions......Page 212
No Fear......Page 213
Invalidating a Trendline......Page 218
Failure That Forewarns......Page 222
Failure That Cuts Losses......Page 224
Summary......Page 225
The Trend Is at Its End......Page 226
Price Objective Is Reached......Page 235
Stop Is Hit......Page 236
Would You Buy It Right Now, at Its Current Price?......Page 237
25 BEAR MARKETS......Page 238
What Happens in a Bear Market?......Page 239
Remember Why You Are Investing......Page 244
Part V: TOOLS AND CASE STUDIES......Page 246
Real-Time Data......Page 248
Charting Software......Page 249
Your Child’s Geometry Tools......Page 252
Technical Tasks......Page 254
Tools for Each Technical Task......Page 256
Combination Tools......Page 258
29 FINAL ADVICE......Page 260
30 CASE STUDY—THE PERFECT WORLD......Page 262
Are Conditions Favorable for Equity Assets?......Page 263
What Stocks Within the Good Sectors Are the Best to Buy?......Page 266
Risk Assessment......Page 267
Pull the Trigger......Page 268
31 CASE STUDY—THE REAL WORLD......Page 270
32 CASE STUDY—BIZARRO WORLD......Page 284
When Your Broker’s Recommendation Looks Like Nothing Special......Page 288
Confirmation Required......Page 290
What Makes a Stock Look Good?......Page 291
Compare Them to Each Other......Page 292
Part VI: FURTHER ON DOWN THE ROAD......Page 294
34 INTRODUCTION TO CANDLESTICKS......Page 296
Reading Candlesticks......Page 297
Basic Candlestick Shapes......Page 298
Reversal Indicators......Page 299
Continuation Indicators......Page 301
Trading with Candlesticks......Page 302
What Is a Cycle?......Page 306
Summary......Page 309
Introduction......Page 310
Open Interest......Page 314
Bollinger Bands......Page 315
Relative Strength Index (RSI)......Page 316
Stochastics......Page 317
RSI Versus Stochastics......Page 318
Fan Lines......Page 320
Fibonacci Retracements......Page 321
MACD......Page 323
Trin (Arms Index)......Page 327
Point and Figure......Page 328
38 DEBUNKING THE TV ANALYST......Page 334
Bear Trap......Page 338
Dead-Cat Bounce......Page 339
Whipsaw......Page 342
Catapult......Page 343
Candlestick Terms......Page 344
CLOSING THOUGHTS......Page 346
C......Page 348
E......Page 349
K–L......Page 350
Q–R......Page 351
T......Page 352
W–Z......Page 353