Tales of Brexits Past and Present: Understanding the Choices, Threats and Opportunities In Our Separation from the EU

Cover
Title Page
Copyright Page
Contents
List of Abbreviations
Foreword
Introduction
Insights from the Past Can Help Us Today
Brexit I: The End of Roman Britain – Economic and Political Brexit
Brexit II: Henry VIII’s Legal Brexit
Brexit III: Elizabeth’s Mercantilist Brexit
The Need for Entrepreneurial Exceptionalism
Success Heals Division
1 Motivation, Myth and Reality
Immigration
Do Remain Supporters Have a Collective Identity?
Tribe and Voter Coalition in the Brexit World
Today’s Pre-Brexit World
Promenade I: Criteria for Measuring Success
2 Brexit Today: The Current State of Play
Article 50
Brexit Execution Streams
The Exit Negotiations
The Legislative Programme
Economic Background
Post-2008 Crash Economic Impact
Employment, Growth and Real Wage Pressures
The Productivity Dimension
Innovation In Today’s Rapidly Changing Products/Markets
Supply Chains
Making a Global Living
Public Sector Austerity & Private Sector Short Termism
Promenade II: Which Growth Model Is Needed?
3 Brexit MK I AD 410
Third Century Trial Brexit?
Fifth Century Hard Brexit?
A Fifth Century Monetary and Spatial Shock?
Promenade III: Lessons from the End of Britain?
Sometimes Change Can Happen Rapidly
Supply Chains Matter
The State Matters
4 Brexit MK II The Road from Rome in the 1530’s
England and Europe Before the Break with Rome
Henry’s Divorce
Sixteenth Century Legal Background
The Brexit Break of the 1530’s
Promenade IV: Lessons from the 1530’s for Today?
Similar or Different?
Legal Success Does Not Mean a Brexit Success
Unintended Economic and Social Consequences?
5 Brexit MK III Elizabeth I: The Pragmatic Problem Solver
Building Stability
Rebuilding the Economy
Elizabeth’s ‘England First’ Policy
Global Adventuring
Privateering
Elizabethan Outsourcing
The End Result
Promenade V: Brexit Then and Now – The Challenge List
Pointers from Previous Brexits
Transitioning to the New Order
Driving Success in the Face of Challenge
6 The Global Innovation Economy
A Rapidly Changing World
Platform Firms and Big Bang Disruption
Technology Clusters
Entrepreneurial Capital
Entrepreneurs and Risk Capital
The Funding Paradox
Long-term Financial Returns Need Successful Businesses
Innovating New Markets in the Face of Uncertainty
Dealing with Uncertainty and Risk
The Importance of Human Capital
Studio I: The Innovation Canvas
7 The Generational Divide
Funding Retired People
Entitlement Culture
Studio II: The Generational Canvas
8 The Left Behind
Defining the Left Behind
The Importance of Ambition
The Importance of Stability
Earnings
Job Subsidies
Studio III: The Left Behind
9 International Dimensions
Free Trade Dreams?
Why Are These Forecasts Are So Different?
Adjusting to a New International Model
What Sort of Adjustment Can We Expect with Brexit?
Non EU Free Trade Agreements as a Growth Engine?
Studio IV: International Trade
10 Popularism and the Internet
Signs of an Older Narrative in a Modern Age?
New Fault Lines
Nihilism as a Mainstream Policy
Is Social Media Today’s ‘Smart’ Munich Beer Hall?
Post-modern Truth?
11 Which Brexit This Time?
Is There an Unrecognised Elephant in the Brexit Room?
The Left Behind Need Economic Success
The Brexit Opportunity
The Brexit Adjustment
The Brexit Risk
Our Shared Challenge
Appendix 1: The European Union Today
Appendix 2: Could Subsidiarity Be ‘Praemunire’ in Sheep’s Clothing?
Appendix 3: July 2018 Brexit White Paper
Proposed Governance Relationship
Economic Stream
Security Stream
Cross-cutting Issues
Endnotes
Glossary
Bibliography
Index