The main goal of this text is to introduce the systems approach to disasters management community as an alternative approach that can provide support for interdisciplinary activities involved in the management of disasters. The systems approach draws on the fields of operations research and economics to create skills in solving complex management problems.The text is organized into four parts. Part I provides an introductory discussion of disaster management including an overview of the main terms used. Part II is devoted to the introduction of systems theory, mathematical formalization and classification of methods. The material presented in this section should be of practical relevance during the process of selecting an appropriate tool for the solution of a problem. Part III is technical in nature, providing a simulation approach and a detailed description of system dynamics simulation. This section details two areas of application: flood evacuation simulation, and disaster risk assessment. Part IV ends with a chapter covering steps to improve disaster management. Finally parts of the book can be used as a tool for specialized short courses for practitioners. For example a course on 'System analysis for emergency management optimization' could be based on Chapters 3, 4 and parts of Chapter 6.Included in the book is a CD with three computer programs Vensim PLE, LINPRO, and COMPRO. Vensim PLE (Personal Learning Edition) is state-of-the-art simulation software used for the implementation of system dynamics simulation. The other two programs are: LINPRO, a linear programming optimization tool; and COMPRO, for the implementation of the multi-objective analysis tool of compromise programming.
Author(s): Slobodan P. Simonovi?
Edition: 1
Year: 2010
Language: English
Pages: 312
SYSTEMS APPROACH
TO MANAGEMENT
OF DISASTERS......Page 5
Contents......Page 9
List of Figures and Tables......Page 15
About the Author......Page 21
Foreword......Page 23
Preface......Page 27
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 35
I MANAGEMENT OF DISASTERS......Page 37
1 Introduction......Page 39
1.1.1 Red River Flooding......Page 42
1.1.2 “Red River Flood of the Century,” Manitoba, Canada......Page 45
1.2 Tools for Management of Disasters—Two New Paradigms......Page 55
1.2.1 The Complexity Paradigm......Page 57
1.2.2 The Uncertainty Paradigm......Page 60
1.3 Conclusions......Page 62
References......Page 63
Exercises......Page 65
2.1 Definition......Page 66
2.2.1 Mitigation......Page 67
2.2.2 Preparedness......Page 75
2.2.4 Recovery......Page 76
2.3 Disaster Management in Canada—Brief Overview......Page 77
2.3.2 National Disaster Mitigation Strategy......Page 78
2.3.3 Joint Emergency Preparedness Program......Page 79
2.3.4 Emergency Response......Page 80
2.3.5 The Role of Federal Government in Disaster Recovery......Page 81
2.4 Decision Making and Integrated Disaster Management......Page 82
2.4.3 Decision Making in Government......Page 83
2.5 Systems View of Integrated Disaster Management......Page 84
References......Page 85
Exercises......Page 86
II SYSTEMS ANALYSIS FOR INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT OF DISASTERS......Page 87
3 Systems Thinking and Integrated Disaster Management......Page 89
3.1 System Definitions......Page 90
3.1.1 What is a System?......Page 91
3.1.2 Systems Thinking......Page 92
3.1.3 Systems Analysis......Page 95
3.1.5 Systems “Engineering”......Page 96
3.1.6 Feedback......Page 97
3.1.7 Mathematical Modeling......Page 102
3.1.8 A Classification of Systems......Page 104
3.2 Systems View of Integrated Disaster Management......Page 106
3.2.1 A Systems Typology in Integrated Disaster Management......Page 107
3.2.2 Systems View of Disaster Management......Page 109
3.2.3 Systems View of Disaster Management Activities......Page 112
3.3 System Formulation Examples......Page 113
3.3.1 Dynamics of Epidemics......Page 114
3.3.2 Shortest Supply Route......Page 116
3.3.3 Resources Allocation......Page 117
References......Page 118
Exercises......Page 119
4.1 Simulation......Page 121
4.2 System Dynamics Simulation......Page 125
4.3 Optimization......Page 128
4.4 Multiobjective Analysis......Page 131
4.5 Disaster Risk Management......Page 133
4.5.1 Sources of Uncertainty......Page 134
4.5.2 Conceptual Risk Definitions......Page 136
4.5.3 Probabilistic Approach......Page 138
4.5.4 A Fuzzy Set Approach......Page 139
4.6 Computer Support: Decision Support Systems......Page 142
References......Page 145
Exercises......Page 147
III IMPLEMENTATION OF SYSTEMS ANALYSIS TO MANAGEMENT OF DISASTERS......Page 149
5.1 Definitions......Page 151
5.2.1 Introduction......Page 152
5.2.2 System Structure and Patterns of Behavior......Page 153
5.3 System Dynamics Simulation Modeling Process......Page 162
5.3.1 Causal Loop Diagram......Page 163
5.3.2 Stock and Flow Diagram......Page 167
5.3.3 Generic Principles of System Dynamics Simulation Modeling......Page 169
5.3.4 Numerical Simulation......Page 173
5.4 System Dynamics Simulation Modeling Examples......Page 177
5.4.1 A Simple Flu Epidemic Model......Page 178
5.4.2 A More Complex Flu Epidemic Model with Recovery......Page 182
5.5.1 Introduction......Page 188
5.5.2 Human Behavior During Disasters......Page 189
5.5.3 A System Dynamics Simulation Model......Page 190
5.5.4 Application of the Evacuation Model to the Analyses of Flood Emergency Procedures in the Red River Basin, Manitoba, Canada......Page 198
5.5.5 Conclusions......Page 207
Exercises......Page 208
6 Optimization......Page 211
6.1.1 Formulation of Linear Optimization Models......Page 214
6.1.2 Algebraic Representations of Linear Optimization Models......Page 218
6.2 The Simplex Method for Solving Linear Programs......Page 222
6.2.1 Completeness of the Simplex Algorithm......Page 226
6.2.2 The Big M Method......Page 229
6.3 Duality in LP......Page 232
6.3.1 Sensitivity Analysis......Page 234
6.4.1 Formulation of the Transportation Problem......Page 238
6.4.2 Solution of the Transportation Problem......Page 243
6.5 Special Types of LP Problems—Network Problems......Page 249
6.5.1 The Shortest Path Problem......Page 253
6.5.2 The Minimum Spanning Tree Problem......Page 255
6.5.3 The Maximum Flow Problem......Page 259
6.6.1 Introduction......Page 265
6.6.2 The OPTEVAC Model......Page 266
6.6.3 A Casualty Evacuation Example......Page 267
References......Page 270
Exercises......Page 271
7 Multiobjective Analysis......Page 278
7.1.1 Toward Operational Framework for Multiobjective Analysis......Page 279
7.1.2 An Illustrative Example......Page 280
7.2 Multiobjective Analysis Methodology......Page 285
7.2.2 Nondominated Solutions......Page 287
7.2.3 Participation of Decision Makers......Page 290
7.2.4 Classification of Multiobjective Techniques......Page 291
7.2.5 Disaster Management Applications......Page 295
7.3 The Weighting Method......Page 299
7.4.1 Compromise Programming......Page 304
7.4.3 The COMPRO Computer Program......Page 309
7.5.1 Preparation of Input Data......Page 310
7.5.2 Solution of Flood Management Problem Using Compromise Programming......Page 311
References......Page 315
Exercises......Page 317
IV BE PREPARED......Page 321
8 A View Ahead......Page 323
8.1.1 Climate Change......Page 325
8.1.2 Population Growth and Migrations......Page 327
8.2 A Systems View......Page 328
References......Page 329
Index......Page 331
Color Plates......Page 345
