How do you learn about what’s going on in the world? Did a news headline grab your attention? Did a news story report on recent research? What do you need to know to be a critical consumer of the news you read? If you are looking to start developing your data self-defense and critical news consumption skills, this book is for you! It reflects a long-term collaboration between a statistician and a journalist to shed light on the statistics behind the stories and the stories behind the statistics. The only prerequisite for enjoying this book is an interest in developing the skills and insights for better understanding news stories that incorporate quantitative information.
Chapters in Statistics Behind the Headlines kick off with a news story headline and a summary of the story itself. The meat of each chapter consists of an exploration of the statistical and journalism concepts needed to understand the data analyzed and reported in the story. The chapters are organized around these sections:
- What ideas will you encounter in this chapter?
- What is claimed? Is it appropriate?
- Who is claiming this?
- Why is it claimed? What makes this a story worth telling?
- Is this a good measure of impact?
- How is the claim supported?
- What evidence is reported?
- What is the quality/strength of the evidence?
- Does the claim seem reasonable?
- How does this claim fit with what is already known?
- How much does this matter?
- Considering the coverage
Chapters close with connections to the Stats + Stories podcast.
Author(s): A. John Bailer, Rosemary Pennington
Series: ASA-CRC Series on Statistical Reasoning in Science and Society
Publisher: CRC Press/Chapman & Hall
Year: 2022
Language: English
Pages: 203
City: Boca Raton
Cover
Half Title
Series Page
Title Page
Copyright Page
Table of Contents
Preface
Acknowledgments
Chapter 1 A Field Guide to Reading the Statistics behind the Headlines
Journalists and Statisticians Share Similar Goals
Structure of Each Chapter
Statistical Concepts to Be Explored
What Is It? How Much Is There?
Data Generation/Producing Data
Describing Data
Drawing Conclusions from Data
If I Do This, Then That Will Happen
Journalism 101
Chapter 2 Predicting Global Population Growth and Framing How You Report It
Story Summary
What Ideas Will You Encounter in This Chapter?
What Is Claimed? Is It Appropriate?
Who Is Claiming This?
Why Is It Claimed? What Makes This a Story Worth Telling?
Is This a Good Measure of Impact?
How Is the Claim Supported?
What Evidence Is Reported?
What Is the Quality/Strength of the Evidence?
Does the Claim Seem Reasonable?
How Does This Claim Fit with What Is Already Known?
How Much Does This Matter?
Comparison of Population Perspective versus Individual Perspective?
Will I Change My Behavior as a Consequence of This?
Considering the Coverage
Review
Stats + Stories Podcasts
References – World Population Projection
Notes
Chapter 3 Social Media and Mental Health
Story Summary
What Ideas Will You Encounter in This Chapter?
What Is Claimed? Is It Appropriate?
Who Is Claiming This?
Why Is It Claimed?
Is This a Good Measure of Impact?
Variables
Odds and Odds Ratios
How Is the Claim Supported?
What Evidence Is Reported?
What Is the Quality/Strength of the Evidence?
Is a 2x Increase in Odds of Problems a Cause for Concern?
What Are the Baseline Rates of These Mental Health Problems?
Is the Claim Reasonable in Itself? Does Prior Belief Impact My Belief? Confirmation Bias?
How Does This Claim Fit with What Is Already Known?
How Much Does This Matter to Me?
Does a Study of U.S. Young Teens Translate to Older Teens or to Other Countries?
Considering the Coverage
Review
Stats + Stories Podcasts
Notes
Chapter 4 Speedy Sneakers: Technological Boosterism or Sound Science?
Story Summary
What Ideas Will You Encounter in This Chapter?
What Is Claimed? Is It Appropriate?
Who Is Claiming This?
Why Is It Claimed?
Is This a Good Measure of Impact?
How Is the Claim Supported?
What Evidence Is Reported?
What Is the Quality/Strength of the Evidence?
Is the Claim Reasonable in Itself? Does Prior Belief Impact My Belief? Confirmation Bias?
How Does This Claim Fit with What Is Already Known?
How Much Does This Matter to Me?
Considering the Coverage
Review
To Learn More
A Bonus Story
Stats + Stories Podcasts
Chapter 5 Investigating Series Binge-Watching
Story Summary
What Ideas Will You Encounter in This Chapter?
What Is Claimed? Is It Appropriate?
Who Is Claiming This?
Why Is It Claimed?
Is This a Good Measure of Impact?
How Is the Claim Supported?
What Evidence Is Reported?
How Much Television Do You Watch? Government Survey Says …
Are You a Binge-Watcher? Industry Report Says …
Is Watching Lots of TV Is Good, Bad or Both for You? Experts Say …
Binging and Stress? Scientific Presentation Says …
What Is the Quality/Strength of the Evidence?
Is the Claim Reasonable in Itself? Does Prior Belief Impact My Belief? Confirmation Bias?
How Does This Claim Fit with What Is Already Known?
How Much Does This Matter to Me?
Considering the Coverage
Review
Stats + Stories Podcasts
Chapter 6 Tracking the Spread of “False News”
Story Summary
What Ideas Will You Encounter in This Chapter?
What Is Claimed? and Is It Appropriate?
Who Is Claiming This?
Why Is It Claimed?
Is This a Good Measure of Impact?
How Is the Claim Supported?
What Evidence Is Reported?
What Is the Quality/Strength of the Evidence?
Is the Claim Reasonable in Itself? Does Prior Belief Impact My Belief? Confirmation Bias?
How Does This Claim Fit with What Is Already Known?
How Much Does This Matter to Me?
Considering the Coverage
Review
Stats + Stories Podcasts
Note
Chapter 7 Modeling What It Means to “Flatten the Curve”
Story Summary
What Ideas Will You Encounter in This Chapter?
What Is Claimed? Is It Appropriate?
Who Is Claiming This?
Why Is It Claimed?
Is This a Good Measure of Impact?
How Is the Claim Supported?
What Evidence Is Reported?
What Is the Quality/Strength of the Evidence?
Is the Claim Reasonable in Itself? Does Prior Belief Impact My Belief? Confirmation Bias?
How Does This Claim Fit with What Is Already Known?
How Much Does This Matter to Me?
Considering the Coverage
Review and Recap
COVID Coda
Stats + Stories Podcasts
Chapter 8 One Governor, Two Outcomes and Three COVID Tests
Story Summary
What Ideas Will You Encounter in This Chapter?
What Is Claimed? Is It Appropriate?
Who Is Claiming This?
Why Is It Claimed?
Is This a Good Measure of Impact?
How Is the Claim Supported?
What Evidence Is Reported?
What Is the Quality/Strength of the Evidence?
Is the Claim Reasonable in Itself? Does Prior Belief Impact My Belief? Confirmation Bias
Community with Low Rate of Infection
Rapid, Less Accurate Test
Slower, More Accurate Test
Community with a Higher Rate of Infection
Rapid, Less Accurate Test
Slower, More Accurate Test
How Much Does This Matter to Me?
Considering the Coverage
Review
Stats + Stories Podcasts
Chapter 9 Research Reproducibility and Reporting Results
Story Summary
What Ideas Will You Encounter in This Chapter?
What Is Claimed? Is It Appropriate?
Who Is Claiming This?
Why Is It Claimed? What Makes This a Story Worth Telling?
Is This a Good Measure of Impact?
How Is the Claim Supported?
What Evidence Is Reported?
What Is the Quality/Strength of the Evidence?
Does the Claim Seem Reasonable?
How Does This Claim Fit with What Is Already Known?
How Much Does This Matter?
Comparison of Population Perspective versus Individual Perspective?
Will I Change My Behavior as a Consequence of This?
Considering the Coverage
Review
Coda: A New 3 R’s?
Stats + Stories Podcasts
Chapter 10 Now, What?
Consider the Weight of Evidence
Consider the Source
Consider the History
Be a Critical Reader … of Everything
Bibliography
Index
