As an entrepreneur - and especially leading a medium-sized company - can you prepare for the future in a targeted manner? Which methods work and where do you succumb to classic thinking errors when planning for the future?
This book shows how companies can develop viable future scenarios for their own market in order to remain successful and profitable in the future. Anyone who thought they were operating in a stable market and were prepared for crises was proven wrong by the Corona pandemic. But even less dramatic influences such as technological disruption, side attacks by competitors from outside the industry or end-of-life scenarios are massively changing the environment of companies and demand - at the latest now! - a rethink.
In this completely revised 2nd edition, the author shows why early planning for the future can be decisive for success, why one should not rely on experience and intuition, and which mistakes should be avoided. In addition, he explains which tools can be used and put together to form a well-founded process with which future, but also crisis, management can be creatively planned.
A useful guide for managing directors, executives, marketing managers and planners in medium-sized companies - with helpful tips, illustrative examples and an individually adaptable template for a future workshop.
This book is a translation of the original German 2nd edition Zukunftsmanagement für den Mittelstand by Heino Hilbig, published by Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, part of Springer Nature in 2020. The translation was done with the help of artificial intelligence (machine translation by the service DeepL.com). A subsequent human revision was done primarily in terms of content, so that the book will read stylistically differently from a conventional translation. Springer Nature works continuously to further the development of tools for the production of books and on the related technologies to support the authors.
Author(s): Heino Hilbig
Publisher: Springer
Year: 2022
Language: English
Pages: 215
City: Cham
Foreword
The Day After Corona: Thoughts on the Second Edition
Foreword
Contents
About the Author
List of Figures
1: About the Inability to Predict the Future
1.1 A Future Concept Especially Medium-Sized Companies?
1.2 Preparing for the Future Requires above all Else
1.3 Reality: Predictions without Imagination
1.4 Linear Thinking Prevents a Successful Future!
1.5 Those Who Do Not Prepare Lose out: Even in the Age of Pandemics
1.6 Try it yourself: Predict Just 24 Hours of your Life
1.7 What Can Big Data Really Do? And cannot?
1.8 The Flock, the Flock Bird and the Consultant
References
2: Eight Typical Thinking Errors
2.1 Bias 1: The Linear View of Time
2.2 Bias 2: Compulsive Pattern Recognition
2.3 Bias 3: The Hindsight Bias
2.4 Bias 4: Black Swans
2.5 Bias 5: The Rules of Chaos
2.6 Bias 6: Physical Laws
2.7 Bias 7: Experts
2.8 Bias 8: Extrapolations
References
3: Learning from the Mistakes and Successes of Others
3.1 Kodak: A Market Does Not Belong to any Company
3.2 Olympia: Visions of the Future without Imagination
3.3 Swissair: Overestimating its Position
3.4 Daimler/AEG/Olympia: Failing to Recognize Opportunities
3.5 Polaroid et al.: You cannot Win by Retreating
3.6 Ikea: Identifying Opportunities in Challenges
3.7 Shell: There Is More than One Future
3.8 Rügenwalder Mühle: Innovation Can Be Planned
3.9 Casio: Identifying and Exploiting Market Changes
3.10 Apple: Acting Instead of Waiting
3.11 Learning from the Past? Yes. Prediction? No!
References
4: Dealing with Changing Markets
4.1 Three Types of Changes: Evolution, Revolution, Disruption
4.2 People, Technology and Business Models
4.3 Future you Have Overlooked?
4.4 More Precise Planning through Feedback Loops
4.5 Is there a “Right” Mind-Set?
4.5.1 Resilience: Stay Ready for the Change!
4.5.2 The Never-Ending Story: Future Management Never Ends!
4.5.3 Involving Employees
4.5.4 Thinking and Working Holistically
4.5.5 Developing Scenarios
4.5.6 Your Customers Do Not Know the Future either
4.5.7 Even the Tiniest Changes Revolutionise a Market
4.5.8 Outsiders: Attacks from the Side
4.5.9 Competing with yourself
4.5.10 Once Again: Future Management Never Ends!
4.6 Let’s Be Frank: Are you the Right Manager for the Job?
4.6.1 Phase I: Creative Start-Up
4.6.2 Phase II: The Company Is Established
4.6.3 Phase III: The Downturn
References
5: Creating your Toolbox for the Future
5.1 Research Methods
5.1.1 Tip 1: Determine What you Want to Find
5.1.2 Tip 2: Search as you Would Design a Web Page on the Topic
5.1.3 Tip 3: If you Are Not a Native English Speaker: Search in English Too
5.1.4 Tip 4: Switch Google to English Language Search Results
5.2 Google Day
5.3 Framing the Future: Future Scenarios
5.3.1 Step 1: Determine the Influencing Factors
5.3.2 Step 2: Define the Characteristics
5.3.3 Step 3: Define Meaningful Scenarios
5.3.4 Step 4: The Scenarios: Make the Story
5.4 Business Wargame
5.5 The Strategy Diagram
5.5.1 Step 1: Who Is your Competitor?
5.5.2 Step 2: The Activity Mindmap
5.5.3 Step 3: Scope of Activities
5.5.4 Step 4: Add your Own company’s Values to the Strategy Diagram
5.5.5 Step 5: Strategy Development
5.6 Tactical Prioritisation
5.6.1 Step 1: Identification of Contact Points/Measures
5.6.2 Step 2: The Customer Survey
5.6.3 Step 3: The Statistical Evaluation
References
6: Planning the Process
6.1 Research
6.2 Analysis
6.3 Interpretation
6.4 Reaction Test: Strategy Check
6.5 Future Scenarios
6.6 Strategy Development & Action
References
7: Designing the Initial Workshop
7.1 The Briefing
7.2 The Preliminary Research and the Oetkers’ Egg
7.3 The Workshop
8: Never Again: Creative Crisis Management for the Time after Corona
8.1 Resilience: Remaining Ready for Change
8.2 Thinking about Processes
8.3 Raising Employee Awareness
8.4 Working Holistically: Crisis Are Not a Departmental Issue
8.5 Developing Scenarios
8.6 Paying Attention to Small Deviations
8.7 Paying Attention to Marginal Issues
8.8 Examine Yourself
8.9 Remain Vigilant
Reference
9: Background Information
9.1 Quotes from People Who Seemed to Know better
Further Reading
On the Unpredictability of the Future
Ideas and Forecasts for the Future
Beck, München
Studies on the (Mis) Success Secrets of Successful Companies
Thinking Errors and Pattern Recognition
Workshop and Organizational Concepts
Appendix A. Your Future: A Conclusion
Index
