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Safety Accidents in Risky Industries: Black Swans, Gray Rhinos and Other Adverse Events

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This text introduces bad events (incidents and accidents) named as metaphors. The metaphors, called as "safety animals," are named as black swan, gray rhino, gray swans, and invisible gorilla.

The book analyzes incidents and accidents from the context of the safety management system in the risky industries including aviation, nuclear, chemical, oil, and petroleum. It further uses mathematical analysis of these events (through statistics and probabilities) and presents preventive and corrective measures in dealing with the same.

It comprehensively covers important topics including real-time monitoring, reverse stress testing, change management, predictive maintenance, management system, contingency plans, human factors, behavioral safety, anticipatory failure determination, resilience engineering (RE), resilience management (RM), Swiss cheese model, and probability distribution.

Aimed at professionals working in the fields of health and safety, quality engineering, compliance engineering, aerospace engineering, occupational health and safety, and industrial engineering, this text:

    • Provides an insight to safety managers in analyzing bad events and the ways to deal with them

    • Covers randomness, uncertainty, and predictability in detail

    • Explains concepts including reverse stress testing, real-time monitoring, and predictive maintenance in a comprehensive manner

    • Presents mathematical analysis of incidents and accidents using statistics and probability theories

    Author(s): Sasho Andonov
    Publisher: CRC Press
    Year: 2022

    Language: English
    Pages: 210
    City: Boca Raton

    Cover
    Half Title
    Title Page
    Copyright Page
    Table of Contents
    Preface
    Author
    Acronyms and Abbreviations
    Introductory Explanations Regarding the Things and Terms in This Book
    Chapter 1 Philosophy of Science As Introduction
    1.1 Introduction
    1.2 History of Human Scientific Thinking
    1.3 Determinism, Randomness, and Chaos
    1.4 “The Context of the Things”
    1.5 Reasons for Unpredictability
    1.5.1 Randomness
    1.5.2 Uncertainty
    1.5.3 Randomness Vs Uncertainty
    1.6 Randomness, Uncertainty, and Predictability
    Chapter 2 The Black Swan Events
    2.1 Introduction
    2.2 Can the BSe Be Considered in the Risky Industry?
    2.3 Consideration of the BSe in the Risky Industries
    2.3.1 It Is Unpredictable
    2.3.1.1 Extension of the Definition of Probability
    2.3.1.2 Statistics and Probability
    2.3.1.3 Probability Distributions
    2.3.2 It Has Huge (Usually Bad!) Consequences When It Happens
    2.3.3 Analyzing the Event Later, We Realize that It Was Logical to Happen
    2.4 The Characteristics of the BSe in Stock Exchange Area
    2.5 The Outliers and the Black Swans Events
    2.6 The Differences of ”the Context of the Things” in Stock Exchange Vs Risky Industry
    2.7 Influence of the Complexity in the Risky Industries
    2.8 The Equipment and the BSe in the Risky Industries
    Chapter 3 Analysis of the ”Fat-tails” in the Risky Industries
    3.1 Introduction
    3.2 Swiss Cheese Model
    3.3 Swiss Cheese Model and Alignment of the ”Holes”
    3.3.1 Alignment of the ”Holes” in Same Time
    3.3.2 Alignment of the ”Holes” in Sequence of Time
    3.4 Multiple Causes of Accident to Happen…?
    3.5 May We Use This Approach in the Risky Industry?
    Chapter 4 What to Do with BSe in the Risky Industry?
    4.1 Introduction
    4.2 How We Calculate the Risk in the Risky Industries?
    4.3 BSe in the Risky Industries
    4.4 The BSe and Ignorance
    4.5 The BSe and Procedures
    Chapter 5 The Gray Rhino Events
    5.1 Introduction
    5.2 The Gray Rhinos
    5.3 The Phases of GRe
    5.4 Differences between BSe and GRe
    5.5 How to Deal with the GRe in General?
    Chapter 6 Specifics of the GRe in the Risky Industries
    6.1 Introduction
    6.2 How to Prepare to Handle GRe in the Risky Industries?
    6.2.1 Understanding the GRe in General
    6.2.2 Understanding the GRe in “the Context of Things“ of Your Organization
    6.3 Information Vs Data
    6.4 Defense Lines for GRe
    6.4.1 Defense Lines of the Company
    6.4.2 Defense Lines of the Regulator
    6.5 Intentional or Unintentional GRe
    6.6 Coronavirus (COVID-19) in 2020
    Chapter 7 The Invisible Gorilla
    7.1 Introduction
    7.2 The Invisible Gorilla Experiment
    7.3 Illusions of IG
    7.3.1 Illusions of Attention
    7.3.2 Illusion of Memory
    7.3.3 Illusion of Confidence
    7.3.4 Illusion of Knowledge
    7.3.5 Illusion of Cause
    7.3.6 Illusion of Potential
    7.4 IG in the Risky Industries
    7.5 How to “Fight“ Illusions of Invisible Gorilla?
    7.5.1 How to “Fight“ the Illusions of Attention?
    7.5.2 How to “Fight“ the Illusion of Memory?
    7.5.3 How to “Fight“ the Illusion of Confidence?
    7.5.4 How to “Fight“ the Illusion of Knowledge?
    7.5.5 How to “Fight“ the Illusion of Cause?
    7.5.6 How to “Fight“ the Illusion of Potential?
    7.6 Epilogue for the Invisible Gorilla
    Chapter 8 Other “Safety Animals“
    8.1 Introduction
    8.2 The Gray Swan Events
    8.3 The Black Elephant Events
    8.4 The ”No Seen – No Hear – No Speak” Monkeys
    8.5 The Ostrich in the Sand
    8.6 The Dragon-King Events
    8.7 The Red Herring
    Chapter 9 How to Fight ”Safety Animals”?
    9.1 Introduction
    9.2 Areas Affected by ”Safety Animals”
    9.3 Taleb’s ”Platonicity”
    9.4 The Gray Rhino’s Harbingers
    9.5 Dealing with the Consequences Instead of the Causes…?
    9.6 Anticipatory Failure Determination (ADF)
    9.7 Video Games as Training and/or Analyzing Tool
    9.8 Real-Time Monitoring
    9.9 Reverse Stress Testing
    9.10 Change Management
    9.11 Predictive Maintenance
    9.12 Management Systems
    9.13 Contingency Plans
    9.14 Regulatory Bodies
    9.15 Survival Psychology
    9.15.1 Survival Psychology for Individuals
    9.15.2 Survival Psychology for Companies
    9.16 Resilience Engineering and Resilience Management
    9.17 Human Factors and Behavioral Safety
    9.17.1 Human Factors
    9.17.2 Behavioral Safety
    9.18 List of Hazards and Uncertainty
    9.19 What to Do If There Are Few ”Safety Animals” at the Same Time?
    Chapter 10 Top Management and ”Safety Animals”
    10.1 Introduction
    10.2 Management Teams
    10.3 Responsibility and Accountability
    10.4 Top Managers
    10.5 Undertaking Risk and Top Managers
    10.6 IG and Managers
    10.7 Cynefin Framework
    Final Words
    Index