This book presents a cutting-edge analysis of the economic effects and challenges of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with a special focus on EU sanctions on Russian energy and Ukraine’s political relationship with the European Union in a global context.
Welfens outlines key macroeconomic perspectives on the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, highlighting in particular how sanctions posed by the international community will have a wider economic impact than what has so far been envisaged. The book discusses the effects of Russian gas supply boycotts against Western countries as well as global effects of an EU energy import boycott on Russia, especially for China and the Asian continent. An innovative proposal to cut electricity prices is presented. It also explores the challenges to relations between the EU, China and Russia caused by the invasion, the effects of the unfolding refugee crisis (within a post-Brexit EU), military and humanitarian aid pledges to Ukraine, and the risks of reduced multilateralism within the world economy as a direct result of the war. The book also analyses the risks and benefits of potential enlargement of the EU to integrate Ukraine as a member state. The topics covered by the book are all set within a long-run view of diplomatic and economic relations between the West, Russia and Ukraine.
The factors analysed here provide a new, broader picture of the international effects of the conflict, as well as its potential implications for policy design as we enter a new global order marked by the Russo-Ukrainian war. The book will be of interest to researchers and policy-makers working in international economics, new political economy, European politics and integration, and macroeconomics more broadly.
Author(s): Paul J. J. Welfens
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Year: 2023
Language: English
Pages: 400
City: Cham
Preface
Contents
About the Author
List of Figures
List of Tables
Part I: The Background to the Russo-Ukrainian War and Contextual Factors
Chapter 1: Beginnings of the Russo-Ukrainian War
Key Thoughts on the Analytical Framework
Commodity Exports from Russia and Ukraine
Literature
Chapter 2: Turning Points in the Russo-Ukrainian War
Cyber Warfare and Digital Combat via the Internet
Leading OECD Donor Countries: A Confusing Debate
Bilateral Perspectives on Germany-Russia Trade
International Perspectives
Literature
Chapter 3: The West and Russia: Frozen Relations Between the UK and Russia for Decades
Development of the Relationship Between the UK and Russia
Literature
Chapter 4: Energy Perspectives
Energy Import Issues
Policy Options to Reduce Imports of Gas from Russia According to the International Energy Agency and Leopoldina
An Optimal Gas Energy Import Tariff of the EU Vis-à-Vis Russia
Literature
Part II: The Implications of an Energy Import or Export Boycott
Chapter 5: A Russian Energy Import Boycott by Germany or the EU as a Policy Option?
Literature
Chapter 6: A Russian Gas Supply Boycott Against Western Countries
OECD Modeling of an Energy Import Reduction and Bachmann et al. Study
Literature
Chapter 7: Asia and the Global Effects of an EU Energy Import Boycott of Russia
Literature
Part III: Wider Economic Challenges Arising from the Russo-Ukrainian War
Chapter 8: EU-China-Russia: Macroeconomic Aspects and Multinational Enterprises
EU Macroeconomic Aspects of the Russo-Ukrainian War
Inflation Outlook
To What Extent Is Russia’s Economy Weakened by the West’s Sanctions?
Multinational Companies with a View to Russia
Effects of Reduced Russian Oil and Gas Exports in Russia
The Electricity Price Shock: How to Cope with Russia’s Gas Cuts in Europe
Literature
Chapter 9: Ukrainian Refugees and Ukrainian Guest Workers in EU Countries and Their Effects on Ukraine and the EU
Literature
Chapter 10: Key Ukraine-related Emigration Aspects and EU Enlargement Risks with Ukraine
A Ukraine Accession to the European Union
Literature
Chapter 11: International Aid Pledges to Ukraine: Coverage, Effects, and Potential Challenges
Support to Ukraine by Selected OECD Countries
Further International Perspectives on Refugees
Conclusions and Options for Further Research
Literature
Part IV: The Implications for a New Global Economic Order
Chapter 12: Scenario Perspectives
Literature
Chapter 13: A New Global Economic Order
Future Prospects for the EU Plus the United Kingdom and Russia
Perspectives on UK-Russia Political Relations
Integration and Disintegration Aspects of the EU with regard to the Ukrainian Issue
Prospects for Developing Countries
Reconstruction Prospects of Ukraine
Effects of the Ukraine-Russia War on Countries in Asia
Key Ukraine Emigration Aspects and EU Enlargement Risks with Ukraine
Global Economic Outlook in the Medium Term
Global Economic and Power Perspectives on the Twenty-first Century
Economic Networking Power Perspectives
References
Chapter 14: Free Trade, Freedom, the Rule of Law, and Democracy Belong Together
Reconciliation of Interests of the US-Russia-Ukraine-EU and a New International Cities Network Policy
Literature
Annex A: German-Russian Economic Relations in 2021 (Federal Statistical Office of Germany, 24/2/2022)
Annex B: NATO Aircraft for Ukraine?
Annex C: Ukraine’s Neo-Nazi Problem—Cohen (2018), Published on REUTERS on March 19th, 2018
Annex D: EU Sanctions Against Russia (from EU Ukraine Support Website, March 2022)
Annex E: OECD Interim Economic Outlook, March 2022 (Economic Model Analysis of the Russo-Ukrainian War/Main Assumptions and Selected Results)
Annex F: Joint Statement by the Leaders of International Financial Organizations with Programs for Ukraine and Neighboring Countries (World Bank, 2022a)
Annex G: Intra-EU Solidarity Requirements of Member Countries under the EU Gas Supply Emergency Directive (Excerpts: 2017)
Annex H: Largest Exporters of Crude Oil and Coal
Annex I: On Important Sectors with High Electricity Intensity of Production (Expert Opinion for the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy, 2015)
Annex J: Sanctions Against Russia (According to Spisak [2020], Tony Blair Institute)
Annex K: Extract from the Emergency Plan for Gas for the Federal Republic of Germany (2019); (Transl: PJJW)
Annex L: Indirect Job Effects of Major Sectors in Germany (per 100 Direct Job Effects in the Respective Sector; Based on Input Output Analysis)
Annex M: Conceptual Framework—Key Quantities in the Bachmann et al. (2022) Model
Annex N: On International Citations of the Eltchaninoff Book on Putin (English Edition: Inside the Mind of Putin)
Annex O: IMF World Economic Outlook Projections, April 2022
Annex P: Traditional Gas Market Perspective in the EU and New Approach
Annex Q: EU Trade Relations with Ukraine. Facts, Figures, and Latest Developments (European Commission, 2020b)
Annex R: House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee (2017)
Annex S: Simplified Regression Analysis for the Russian Real Gross Domestic Product, 2005–2021
Annex T: Analytical Approach for the Economic Effects of a Gas Cut-off in Germany in the Second Half of 2022, According to Lan et al. (2022, p. 25)
Index
