Russia-China Relations: Emerging Alliance Or Eternal Rivals?

Acknowledgments
Contents
Editors and Contributors
List of Figures
List of Tables
Introduction: Analyzing the Shifts in Sino-Russian Strategic Cooperation Since 2014
1 Changing Perceptions of Sino-Russian Cooperation over the Years
2 The Structure and Aims of This Volume
References
Part I: Mutual Perceptions and Narratives
Russia´s Strategic Outlook and Policies: What Role for China?
1 Introduction
2 Russia´s Global Strategic Outlook
3 Origins of the ``Comprehensive Strategic Partnership´´
4 The Military Dimension
4.1 Parallelism Russia/Ukraine and China/Taiwan
4.2 The Near and Middle East
4.3 Venezuela
5 The Economic Dimension
6 The Systemic Dimension
7 Conclusion
References
Imperialist Master, Comrade in Arms, Foe, Partner, and Now Ally? China´s Changing Views of Russia
1 Introduction
2 Russian ``Imperialism´´
3 From ``Comrade in Arms´´ to the Sino-Soviet Split
4 From Sino-Russian Border Clashes to Sino-US Rapprochement
5 ``Strategic Partner´´ in a Unipolar World
6 Sino-Russian Partnership in the Era of Sino-US Rivalry
6.1 Balance of Power Politics
6.2 Economic Cooperation
6.3 State-Society and People-to-People Relations
7 Conclusion
References
Domestic Politics: A Forgotten Factor in the Russian-Chinese Relationship
1 Introduction
2 Regime Survival: Domestic Structural Conditions
3 Domestic Actors: The Case of the Russian Federation
3.1 Beneficiaries
3.2 Caught In-Betweens
3.3 Converts
4 Domestic Political Obstacles
5 Conclusions
References
Part II: The Military Dimension of Sino-Russian Cooperation: Case Studies
Russian-Chinese Military-Technological Cooperation and the Ukrainian Factor
1 Introduction
2 Soviet Arms-Industrial Support for China
2.1 A Brief Period of Western Arms Transfers During the 1980s
2.2 The Impact of the 1989 Arms Embargo Against China
3 Post-Soviet Russia´s Interest in Delivering Arms Technologies to China
3.1 A Dip in Russian-Chinese Arms Trade During 2005-2012
4 The Impact of Ukrainian Arms Transfers to China Before 2014
5 Chinese-Ukrainian Defense Cooperation Since 2014
6 A Revival of Russian-Chinese Defense-Industrial Relations After 2014
7 The Outlook for Further Russian-Chinese Defense-Industrial Cooperation
References
Russia-China Naval Partnership and Its Significance
1 From Laying the Foundations of the PLA Navy to Breaking Up
2 Closing the Technological Gap with Russia´s Help
3 Intellectual Property Issues
4 Simulating an Alliance
5 Shared Security Interests and Perceptions of Inferiority
6 Seeking Political and Strategic Benefits
7 Operational Benefits
8 Lasting Distrust
9 Conclusions
References
Chinese and Russian Military Modernization and the Fourth Industrial Revolution
1 Introduction
2 China: Exploiting the 4IR Through Military-Civil Fusion
2.1 Chinese Military Modernization: Mechanization and Informatization
2.2 Intelligentized Warfare and Artificial Intelligence
2.3 Intelligentized Warfare and Military-Civil Fusion
3 Russia: Weaponizing Artificial Intelligence
3.1 The Soviet Era: The Military-Technical Revolution (MTR)
3.2 4IR Exploitation Under Putin
3.3 Exploiting the 4IR
4 Chinese and Russian Prospects for Exploiting the 4IR for Military Modernization
5 Prospects for Sino-Russian Cooperation in 4IR Technologies
References
China-Russia Cooperation in Nuclear Deterrence
1 Introduction
2 Nuclear Weapons and Great Power Competition
3 Evolution of Moscow-Beijing Nuclear Relations
4 Nuclear Issues from Gorbachev to the Ukraine Crisis
4.1 Establishing the New Relationship
4.2 Joint Opposition to US Ballistic Missile Defense
4.3 Areas of Discord
5 Nuclear Cooperation Since the Ukraine Crisis
5.1 Continued Opposition to US Missile Defense
5.2 Coordination in Northeast Asia
5.3 Missile Defense and Early Warning
5.4 Post-INF Cooperation
5.5 Multilateral Arms Control
6 Prospects for Cooperation in Nuclear Deterrence
References
Part III: Spatial and Multilateral Aspects of Sino-Russian Cooperation: Case Studies
Digital Authoritarianism and Technological Cooperation in Sino-Russian Relations: Common Goals and Diverging Standpoints
1 Introduction
2 Digital Surveillance and Censorship in China and Russia
3 Dilemmas for Western Tech Companies
4 Technology, Decoupling and Chinese and Russian Investment Strategies
5 Sino-Russian Cooperation and Its Limits
6 Conclusion
References
Sino-Russian Scientific Cooperation in the Arctic: From Deep Sea to Deep Space
1 Discourse Power and People-to-People Diplomacy
2 Russian Scientific Cooperation with Chinese Defence Universities
2.1 Collaboration in Undersea Surveillance and Hydroacoustics
2.2 Jointly Building an Underwater Great Wall
2.3 Space Cooperation and Implications for Security
2.4 Military-Civil Fusion in Arctic Underwater Acoustics
3 Conclusion
References
Partnership Without Substance: Sino-Russian Relations in Central and Eastern Europe
1 Introduction
2 The Strategic Context
2.1 The CEE Region in Russian and Chinese Foreign Policy
3 The Awkward Squad: Serbia, Hungary, Belarus, and Ukraine
4 17+1 = Trouble. The Rise and Fall of China-Led Multilateralism
5 The Scorecard
5.1 Looking Ahead
References
Cooperation Between Russia and China in Multilateral Organizations: A Tactical or a Strategic Alliance?
1 Introduction
2 Priorities, Commonalities and Differences
2.1 The Priorities of Russia and China in Geneva-Based Forums
2.2 Challenging the Narrative
2.3 Strategic Personnel Policy
3 Cooperation of Russia and China in Geneva-A Tactical or a Strategic Alliance?
3.1 Dismiss Criticism of Domestic and Foreign Policies
3.2 Shaping a Different Narrative-Through Policies and Personnel
3.3 Defensive Stance on Reform-A State-Centric Vision of Multilateralism
3.4 Russia and China as Beacons of the Autocratic Alliance in Multilateral Bodies
4 Options for the West
4.1 Stronger Engagement in Multilateral Forums
4.2 A More Strategic Personnel Policy
4.3 Building Alliances
4.4 Leading by Example
References
Part IV: The Way Forward: How Could the West Cope with Russia and China?
What a Military Alliance Between Russia and China Would Mean for NATO
1 Introduction
2 What an Emerging Military Alliance Between Russia and China Could Look Like
2.1 Examples from History and the Lessons the West Can Learn from Them
2.2 Implications and Consequences of a ``Model B´´ Alliance-Dangerous and Not Unlikely
2.3 A ``Nightmare Scenario´´ Based on ``Model B´´: War Between China and the USA in the Indo-Pacific Creates an Opportunity fo...
3 The Impact of a Russian-Chinese De Facto Alliance on Europe´s Security
3.1 Consequences of a Russian-Chinese Military Alliance for Peacetime Relationships
3.2 Consequences of a Russian-Chinese Military Alliance for International Crisis Management
3.3 Consequences of a Russian-Chinese Military Alliance for Deterrence and Defense in Crisis and Conflict
3.3.1 Political Aspects
3.3.2 Military-Operational Aspects
3.4 The Possible Impact on Russia´s Risk Calculus
3.5 The Impact on NATO´s Risk Calculus and Most Vulnerable Point
3.6 Consequences for NATO´s Defense Posture
4 Concluding Recommendations
References
Options for Dealing with Russia and China: A US Perspective
1 The Problem Set
2 The Key Assumptions
3 Building a Workable Strategy
4 Conclusions
References
The Way Forward: How Should Europe Deal with Russia and China?
1 Introduction
2 The Relevance of History
3 Can the Russian-Chinese Alliance be Broken?
4 What Kinds of War Contingencies Do we Have to Reckon with in the Event that the Russian-Chinese Axis Persists?
5 What Is the Role of `Europe´?
5.1 Acknowledging the Existence and Relevance of a Russian Military Threat
5.2 Rethinking: What Might be the Worst Case?
5.3 Rethinking Europe´s Relationship with China
6 Conclusions
References
Conclusion: Connecting the Dots and Defining the Challenge
1 Structural Incentives for Further Russian-Chinese Cooperation
2 Evidence Pointing to Differences and Lack of Cooperation: An Uneven Picture
3 Defining the Challenge to Europe, NATO and the US
4 Areas for Future Research
References
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