This book presents a comprehensive survey of the current state of Russia and how Russia is likely to develop in the immediate future. Not always sticking to the mainstream narrative, it covers political events including Putin’s constitutional reforms of January 2020 and their likely consequences, economic developments, Russia’s international relations and military activities, and changes and issues in Russian society, including in education, the place of women, health care and religion. Special attention is paid to manifestations of the COVID-19 pandemic. The book’s overall conclusion is that events of 2020 may compel Putin to ‘think again’ before he decides whether to run for office in 2024.
Author(s): J. L. Black
Series: Routledge Contemporary Russia and Eastern Europe Series
Publisher: Routledge
Year: 2021
Language: English
Pages: 442
City: London
Cover
Half Title
Series Page
Title Page
Copyright Page
Table of Contents
List of figures
List of tables
Preface
Transliteration, spelling, punctuation and sources
Abbreviations and key terms
About the author
Introduction
Chapter 1: The presidency, the executive and the Constitution
Introduction
The president’s mandate
The government before 2020
Who is Vladimir Putin?
The question of succession looms early
Putinism
Siloviki, oligarchs and cronyism
Presidential envoys
Public chamber
National security agencies
Street protests
Inauguration promises, 2018
Forming a government
Presidential staff
Outlining the future
Trust in president fades
Coping with domestic non-political problems
Constitutional amendments, 2020
More succession speculation
Putin, the ‘eternal’ president
Presidential powers
Administrative reset
The new government
Working with the pandemic
The All-Russia Vote and beyond
Post-vote
Chapter 2: The Russian Federation: Internal strengths and strains
Introduction
General structure
Constitutional amendments 2020
The federal legislature
The governors
Language matters
Coronavirus pandemic and the federation
Crimea
Siberia and Russia’s far East
Siberia deals with climate change – or doesn’t
Northern sea route
The North Caucasus
Chechnya
The Islamicist cancer: Terrorism
Terrorism in the North Caucasus
Terrorist acts elsewhere in Russia
Russian and international anti-terrorism activities
Terrorism of another kind
The future of terrorism in Russia
Chapter 3: The political arena
Introduction
Main street politics
The post-presidential election political scene, 2018
The State Duma
United Russia
The Duma opposition
The extra-systemic opposition
Navalny to the forefront
Re-modelling political movements outside the Duma
Searching for a cause via social media
The politics of pension reform
Searching for a party to support
Moscow’s mayoralty race, 2018
Electoral fallout
2019–20 – turning points?
New electoral crisis in Moscow
Regional elections
More parties
Nationalists – riding high
Constitutional amendments and the political arena
Political reset
Back to work – Pandemic, Khabarovsk and Navalny variables
Politics and the pandemic
Back to political theatre
Unrest in the regions
A Navalny riddle, again
First test: Regional elections, September 2020
Chapter 4: Economic patterns and the sanctions saga
Introduction
Sanctions and the oligarchs 4
Import substitution
Sanctions become American weapon of choice
Weathering the storm
Pandemic panic
Domestic issues
National projects revisited
Infrastructure initiatives and SPIEF-2018
Pension reform and Russian labour
Revising the budget, and the pandemic
Economic integration
Caspian Sea
Eurasia
The BRICS
Industry, trade and development
The Kerch Strait Bridge and domestic transportation issues
Foreign investment
Pivot to the East
The ASEAN
Western remnant
Energy
Gas & gas pipelines
LNG
Oil sector
Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs)
SPIEF-2019
Other natural resources
Government shuffle, coronavirus, price war and an energy strategy for 2035
Down on the farm: The agricultural sector
Coronavirus and protecting the food supply
Back to work
Budgeting to cover for 2020
Chapter 5: Russia in the world: Changing patterns
Introduction
The Skripal factor
Ukraine
Donbas
Crimea
South Caucasus 65
The Middle East
Iran–Iraq–US, 2020. Russia in the middle
Syria
Iran, Israel and further diplomatic muddle
Europe and the EU 118
Eastern Europe
Poland and the Baltic States
Belarus
Moldova
Populist leaders in Europe and Russia
Western Europe
Germany
The UK
The Italian link
European institutions
Latin America
Pivot to the East: Central Asia, Southeast Asia, Far East
Valdai’s ‘Asia’ theme, 2019
Moscow’s ‘pivot to the East’ and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
India
North Korea
Japan
Africa
Coronavirus: manifestations for the world order
Pandemic aid
Chapter 6: New Cold War: The Russian Federation, the United States – and China
Introduction
Moscow and Washington face off in 2018
The 2018 summit
Mid-term elections in USA
The Mueller report
International interaction
Russophobia in action
NGOs as ‘foreign agents’
Spy capers
Space capers
Manipulating public opinion
Ides of March, 2019
Modernizing Cold War. Digital wars
Putin and Trump meet again
A new American ambassador
Coronavirus blame-casting
Russia and the US presidential election, 2020
China matters
Final straws?
Chapter 7: The re-militarization of Russia, and the end of arms control?
Introduction
Spending
Arms control treaties targeted
Conscripts
Strategic issues
China joins up
Other strategic operations
Buzzing – dangerous games
Arms race and arms sales
INF saga and arms control
Strategic consequences
Arms out of control
Weaponizing space
Weapons sales
The CSTO
NATO
Chapter 8: Quality of life: Media, mind and behaviour
Introduction
Media
Internet interplay
Print & TV media
Vedomosti sold
Education, science and the arts
Education
Coronavirus disruption
Science
Arts
Human & civil rights
LGBT woes
Women on the march and ‘family values’
The dilemma of crime and corruption
The criminal world
Eternal corruption
Sectoral corruption
Chapter 9: Quality of life: Pandemic, body & soul
Introduction
Coronavirus pandemic and its over-arching implications
Public response
Second wave
Vaccine nationalism
Quality of life
Seeds of social (dis)satisfaction
Climate change 100
General healthcare
Alcohol & drug abuse
Infectious diseases other than COVID-19
World Cup, fitness and sport
Religion
Constitutional amendments 2020
Coronavirus & the Church
Demographics, immigration & the workforce
Back to work
Closing remarks: What’s left after 2020?
Stability anyone?
The Presidency
The domestic political scene
Poisoned politics
The international arena
Biden in office
Demonization of Russia
The economy
Quality of life
Pandemic futures
Government and society going into 2021
A second ‘January Revolution’, 2021
Navalny comes home
Street protests against the odds
Bibliography
Index
