Written in 1993, it is fascinating to re-read "Russia 2010" today, 11 years later -- but still 6 years before the ultimate forecast date of the title -- to see how Dan Yergin and Thane Gustafson's predictions are doing. Given the events of recent months, with the school massacre in southern Russia and other terrorist actions, the ongoing brutal war in Chechnya, the continued clampdown on freedom of the press and civil society in Russia, the prosecution/persecution of leading business moguls (specifically, Mikhail Khodorkovsky), and President Putin's dramatic moves to increase his power, Russia should definitely be getting a lot more attention than most people have been giving it. Which makes the analysis of "Russia 2010" more relevant than ever.
Most importantely, what Yergin and Gustafson did in "Russia 2010" was NOT to make absolute forecasts or to simply (and mindlessly) extrapolate from the situation at the time, but instead to apply powerful "scenario planning" techniques to thinking through the most likely futures for Russia. Back in 1993, the authors laid out four main scenarios: 1) "muddling down;" 2) the "Two-Headed Eagle;" 3) "Time of Troubles;" and 4) "Chudo" (economic miracle). How did the authors do?
Today, in 2004, we can confidently conclude that #4 was wrong -- there has been no Russian economic miracle, although oil prices have certainly helped Russia recover from the post-Soviet low point of the early- to mid-1990s. It also turns out that #1, "muddling down," the scenario that came closest to simply extrapolating from the existing situation at the time (as most forecasters erroneously do) was somewhat off the mark in the long run, although its predictions of a "relatively free atmosphere" and "weak Russian central government" did hold true for a few years at least. Scenario #3 is interesting, as it accurately anticipates separatist tendencies (although not specifically mentioning Chechnya) and the reaction of the "Russian Bear" to reassert itself. To some extent, that's exactly what we see today.
It is Scenario #4 (the "Two-Headed Eagle"), however, that appears to have hit the nail squarely - almost eerily so -- on the head. In "Russia 2010," Yergin and Gustafson posit that an attempted assassination on the Russian President by a "petty hoodlum"/mafia type "from the north Caucasus" leads to: a) Russian military action in that unnamed north Caucasus republic; b) a popular call for a crackdown on "the mafia, on corruption, and the private economy, which are all rolled into one in many people's minds;" c) the central government taking advantage of this situation to consolidate its own power, rein in the provinces, strengthen the executive over the legislative branch, reassert its control over natural resource exports; and d) an "ambivalent" and half-hearted Western reaction to these moves. Sound familiar? It should, because Scenario #4 -- the "premature reconstitution of a strong state" -- is almost exactly what we're seeing right now in Russia.
What Yergin and Gustafson have done, among other things, is to have demonstrated the tremendous value of "scenario planning" -- rigorously thinking through possible future paths as opposed to mindlessly extrapolating from the present. Although the latter course of action may be the easier (and lazier) way of trying to predict the future, it is also the least helpful and least accurate. Why would we think the future would be just like the present and recent past? The simple answer? Failure of imagination, and the lack of courage to go out on a limb and stand out from the herd. As Yergin and Gustafson point out, the normal "extrapolate from the current situation" forecasting methodology failed us miserably during the past few decades, missing most of the major turning points of those years. For instance, just about nobody managed to predict the Iranian Revolution, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the rise of Al Qaeda, 9/11, the course of oil prices from 1973 to now, or just about anything else during that period. Yergin and Gustafson, however, by spending some time and effort to actually think through possible scenarios, hit the nail on the head regarding the future of Russia in one of their four posited "scenarios" -- with two of the three others having large elements of truth as well. True, it's not 2010 yet, but as of September 2004, Yergin and Gustafson are looking pretty darned smart!
Author(s): Daniel Yergin, Thane Gustafson
Edition: First Edition
Publisher: Vintage
Year: 1995
Language: English
Pages: 348
PRAISE FOR RUSSIA 2010......Page 2
Contents......Page 10
xix......Page 18
Sakharov, Andrei 3......Page 22
4......Page 23
6......Page 25
7-8......Page 26
8......Page 27
10-11......Page 29
CERA [Cambridge Energy Research Associates] in, xx, 11-12......Page 30
Stanislaw, Joseph, xix-xx 12......Page 31
13......Page 32
Chudo Scenario, xiii, 15......Page 34
PART I. After the Fall......Page 38
21......Page 40
Chernobyl nuclear reactor incident in, 24-25......Page 43
25-26......Page 44
expelled from Politburo, 27......Page 46
28......Page 47
rivalry with Gorbachev, 29-30......Page 48
30-31......Page 49
failed coups against, 32-33......Page 51
election as president of Russian Federation, 33......Page 52
failed coups against, 35......Page 54
PART II. The Building Blocks......Page 60
45......Page 64
46-47......Page 65
failed coups against, 47......Page 66
homogeneity of, 48-49......Page 67
49......Page 68
50-51......Page 69
51......Page 70
53......Page 72
rise of, 58-59......Page 77
KGB, 59......Page 78
60......Page 79
economic reform under, 62......Page 81
conflict between Russia and, 63......Page 82
5. The Implosion of Empire......Page 85
67-68......Page 86
68......Page 87
on local businesses, 69-70......Page 88
THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST......Page 89
on military and technological competition, 71-72......Page 90
pop culture, 72-73......Page 91
73......Page 92
6. Players and Prime Movers......Page 94
as president of Russian Republic, 76......Page 95
failed coups against, 77......Page 96
78......Page 97
and legislatures, 80-83......Page 99
81......Page 100
Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs 83......Page 102
and local political machines, 84-85......Page 103
86-87......Page 105
89-94......Page 108
93-94......Page 112
94......Page 113
95......Page 114
of 101-2......Page 120
103-4......Page 122
104......Page 123
and civil-military relations, 106-7......Page 125
homogeneity of, 108-9......Page 127
Wealth of Nations, The [Smith] 110......Page 129
111-12......Page 130
legal, cultural, and institutional context of, 112......Page 131
113......Page 132
problems of conversion to market economy, 115-16......Page 134
by mafias, 116-18......Page 135
transition to, 118-19......Page 137
120-21......Page 139
122......Page 141
123-24......Page 142
124......Page 143
125-26......Page 144
violence, outlook for 126......Page 145
127......Page 146
PART III. The Scenarios: Stories of the Future......Page 148
133......Page 152
136......Page 155
in scenarios, 137......Page 156
in scenarios, 138-39......Page 157
in scenarios, 139......Page 158
in scenarios, 141-42......Page 160
in scenarios, 143-44......Page 162
in scenarios, 145......Page 164
economic system in, 146......Page 165
Zhvanetskii, Mikhail 147......Page 166
economic system, 151-56......Page 170
military and police in, 152......Page 171
military and police in, 153......Page 172
tensions within, 156-57......Page 175
economic system, 158-61......Page 177
of 160-61......Page 179
161......Page 180
in scenarios, 162......Page 181
and former Soviet republics, 163-66......Page 182
164......Page 183
165......Page 184
political system in, 166-68......Page 185
in scenarios, 168-69......Page 187
xiii, 169-76......Page 188
171......Page 190
foreign policy in, 173-74......Page 192
EVOLUTION OF THE RUSSIAN BEAR......Page 193
175......Page 194
Chudo Scenario, xiii, 177-94......Page 196
in scenarios, 179......Page 198
Zinoviev, Aleksandr 180-81......Page 199
in scenarios, 181-83......Page 200
in scenarios, 183......Page 202
consumer society, 184......Page 203
185......Page 204
Singapore 186......Page 205
in scenarios, 187......Page 206
190......Page 209
191......Page 210
193......Page 212
PART IV. Looking Around the Corner......Page 214
and mafias, 197-98......Page 216
200......Page 219
and Capitalism Russian-Style, 201-2......Page 220
204-5......Page 223
205......Page 224
209-10......Page 228
surprises in, 216-34......Page 235
Analysis......Page 237
219......Page 238
potential decline of, 221-23......Page 240
Analysis......Page 242
and potential capitalism in China, 224......Page 243
and AIDS, 225-27......Page 244
and potential Iranian invasion of Azerbaijan, 227-29......Page 246
228......Page 247
230......Page 249
231......Page 250
conflict between Russia and, 232-34......Page 251
233-34......Page 252
PART V. What It Means for the World......Page 254
Stent, Angela 238n......Page 257
foreign policy in, 239......Page 258
241......Page 260
242......Page 261
243......Page 262
244......Page 263
conflict between Russia and, 245......Page 264
246......Page 265
nuclear weapons in, 247-49......Page 266
Chernobyl nuclear reactor incident in, 249......Page 268
250......Page 269
251......Page 270
and foreign policy, 252-55......Page 271
255......Page 274
and Russian foreign policy, 256......Page 275
259......Page 278
262......Page 281
and foreign policy, 263-64......Page 282
Strauss, Robert 265......Page 284
PROVIDING FOR THE SEED CORN......Page 285
269-70......Page 288
foreign investment of, 270-72......Page 289
and foreign investment, 272-73......Page 291
and foreign investment, 274......Page 293
foreign policy of, 275-76......Page 294
and foreign investment, 276-77......Page 295
foreign investment in, 277-84......Page 296
oil projects in, 280......Page 299
oil projects in, 282......Page 301
Sinco 283......Page 302
foreign investment in, 284......Page 303
285-87......Page 304
Vietnam War 286......Page 305
and foreign policy, 287-96......Page 306
THE BOUNDS OF THE POSSIBLE......Page 307
290-91......Page 309
292......Page 311
294......Page 313
International Science Foundation 295......Page 314
foreign policy of, 296......Page 315
foreign policy in, 298......Page 317
Appendix......Page 320
list of, 303......Page 322
CHAPTER 1: “THE WORLD BEHIND THE MIRROR”......Page 323
CHAPTER 2: THE NEW RUSSIAN REVOLUTION......Page 324
CHAPTER 4: THE BIG ENGINE THAT COULDN’T......Page 325
CHAPTER 7: THAT THE GUARD NOT TIRE......Page 326
CHAPTER 12: CHUDO: THE RUSSIAN ECONOMIC MIRACLE......Page 327
CHAPTER 16: THE RETURN OF A GREAT POWER......Page 328
CHAPTER 17: WHO PAYS FOR THE PLOWSHARES? FOREIGN INVESTORS AND THE NEW CAPITALISTS......Page 329
CHAPTER 18: RUSSIA AND THE WEST......Page 330
Acknowledgments......Page 331
Index......Page 335
55......Page 74
82......Page 101
90......Page 109
172......Page 191
39......Page 58
by mafias, 96......Page 115
23......Page 42
foreign investment in, 268......Page 287
Westernizers 253......Page 272
114......Page 133
in Capitalism Russian-Style, 199......Page 218
167......Page 186
Vladimir Tractor Factory 61-62......Page 80
257......Page 276
140......Page 159
need for realistic system of, 119......Page 138
in scenarios, 135......Page 154
military and police in, 142-43......Page 161
moral values 121......Page 140
26......Page 45
279......Page 298
of the xx......Page 19
18......Page 37
in Capitalism Russian-Style, 203......Page 222
in Capitalism Russian-Style, 198......Page 217
consumer society, 202......Page 221
on Capitalism Russian-Style, 206-7......Page 225
in Capitalism Russian-Style, 214......Page 233
207......Page 226
aversion to use of force, 17......Page 36
relationship with Germany, 258-59......Page 277
36......Page 55
79......Page 98
on business and investment, 16-17......Page 35
102......Page 121
261......Page 280
nuclear weapon removal in, 220......Page 239
and Russian foreign policy, 240......Page 259
182......Page 201
in scenarios, 189......Page 208
in scenarios, 178......Page 197
Chudo Scenario, xiii, 132......Page 151
264......Page 283
triple transition of, 289......Page 308
210......Page 229
economic reform under, 37......Page 56
22......Page 41
64......Page 83
92......Page 111
54......Page 73
failed coups against, 38-39......Page 57
267......Page 286
40......Page 59
91......Page 110
212......Page 231
in scenarios, 148......Page 167
economic system, 150......Page 169
maps 254......Page 273
5......Page 24
foreign policy of, 293-94......Page 312
foreign policy in, 291......Page 310
and foreign investment, 273......Page 292
foreign investment by, 271......Page 290
foreign policy of, 260......Page 279
governments and institutions, 97......Page 116
and the military, 87-88......Page 106
FSK, 107......Page 126
military and police in, 149-50......Page 168
G 2 nations......Page 21
in scenarios, 154......Page 173
Yakovlev, Alexander 31......Page 50
Iakovlev, Veniamin 105......Page 124
144......Page 163
in scenarios, 155......Page 174
in scenarios, 170......Page 189
International Monetary Fund [IMF] 98......Page 117
14......Page 33
192......Page 211
foreign policy in, 299......Page 318
52......Page 71
157......Page 176
56......Page 75
and mafias, 117......Page 136
131......Page 150
188......Page 207
potential decline of, 278......Page 297
failed coups against, 88......Page 107
248......Page 267
34......Page 53
foreign policy in, 297......Page 316
prime movers in, 74......Page 93
Schlesinger, James 9......Page 28
dissolution of Supreme Soviet and parliament, 85......Page 104
and oil industry, 281......Page 300
229......Page 248
ABOUT THE AUTHORS......Page 347
