Risk Assessment in Forensic Practice sets out a concise critical review of the way in which risk is assessed in current forensic practice. Setting the area in its historical context, this text outlines current practice in an accessible and clear format and discusses major critiques as well as the ways in which current practice might be developed to improve public protection.
Providing an account of the main issues involved in risk and probability and the ways that these have been applied in practice, the book describes current forensic practice in relation to the dominant algorithmic and checklist-based methods. Critiques of these arising from social-legal, risk analysis and experimental psychology perspectives are summarised, and questions of the accuracy, fairness and lack of analysis are considered, along with the main challenges associated with making group and individual predictions of events. The text rejects the idea that clinical assessments of risk are generally ineffective and stresses the role of environmental context, training and expertise in improving practice. Through the author’s work in the field, this text also offers insight into the ways in which current practice might be improved and calls for greater analysis and methodological rigour.
Risk Assessment in Forensic Practice appeals to a wide range of forensic practitioners including psychologists, psychiatrists, social workers, mental health nurses and lawyers. The text is also relevant to those involved in management and decision-making across forensic settings.
Author(s): David Crighton
Series: New Frontiers in Forensic Psychology
Publisher: Routledge
Year: 2022
Language: English
Pages: 215
City: London
Cover
Half Title
Series Page
Title Page
Copyright Page
Table of Contents
Series Foreword
Acknowledgements
Disclosure
Introduction
1 Key Issues in Risk
Risk and Uncertainty
Probability
Measuring Probability
The Principle of Indifference
Types of Probability
Relative Frequency Probability
Knowledge-Based Probability
Problems with Knowledge-Based Probability
Applying Probability
Descriptive and Inferential Statistics
Conclusion
2 The Language of Risk
Risk Assessment
Risk Treatment
Dose Response
Risk Management
Cautionary and Precautionary Principles
Robustness and Resilience
Risk and Protective Factors
Conclusion
3 Current Practice in Risk: Actuarial and Algorithmic Approaches
Use of Actuarial and Algorithmic Approaches in Practice
Policing
Sentencing and Conditional Release
Risk Treatment
The Case for Using Actuarial and Algorithmic RAIs
Conclusion
4 Current Practice in Risk: Structured Clinical Judgement Approaches
Use in Practice
Policing
Sentencing and Conditional Release
Risk Treatment
The Case for Using Checklist RAIs
Conclusion
5 Critiques of Current Practice: Socio-Legal Perspectives
Fairness
Accuracy
Individual and Group-Based Predictions
Impact
Conclusion
6 Critiques of Current Practice: Risk Analysis Perspectives
Risk Management
Risk Analysis
Measuring Risk
Simplified Qualitative Analysis
Standard Qualitative and/or Quantitative Analysis
Model-Based and Primarily Quantitative Methods
Treating Risk as an Expected Value
Criticisms of Using Relative Frequency Probability
Criticisms of Using Knowledge-Based Probability
Syntactic Criterion
Pragmatic Criteria
Calibration
Treating Risk as a Product of History
Standardisation and Consensus
Using Models
Conclusion
7 Critiques of Current Practice: Psychological Perspectives
Unbounded Rationality
Optimisation Under Constraints
Cognitive Illusions
Ecological Rationality
Biases Associated with Cognitive Illusions
Representativeness
Availability
Anchoring and Adjustment
Affect
Heuristics and Judgement
Critiques of Cognitive Illusions Research
Some Problems while Using Content-Blind Norms
Studies of Heuristics
Are Cognitive Illusions and Ecological Rationality Essentially Similar?
The Adaptive Toolbox
Conclusion
8 Dealing with Risk Better: Analysis and Treatment of Risks
The Scale of the Problem
Analysing Risks
Barriers to Change
Doing Better
Risk Analysis: Planning
Risk Analysis: Methods
Cause and Effect Analysis (CEA) or Ishikawa Diagrams
Structured What If Technique (SWIFT)
Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
Event Tree Analyses (ETA)
Bayesian Networks
Risk Analysis: Probabilistic Assessment
Risk Evaluation
Risk Treatment
Risk Management
Conclusion
9 Dealing with Risk Better: Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Changing Practice
How to Develop More Accurate Assessments
The MacArthur Study
Conclusion
10 Dealing with Risk Better: Changing the Environment
Getting Rid of the ‘Cargo Cult’ Science
Changing Environments to Make Better Decisions
The Attractions of Simplicity
Conclusion
References
Index
