Nguyen T.D. , Uvo C. , Rosbjerg D. Relationship between Tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and monthly precipitation over the Central Highland, Vietnam, 2005, Technical University of Denmark, Lund University.
(На англ. / Взаимосвязь тропических регионов Тихого и Индийского океана: температурой поверхности океана и ежемесячными осадками над Центральным Вьетнамским нагорьем).Abstract In this study, the relationship between the monthly sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans and the monthly precipitation over the Vietnamese Central Highland (VCH) is investigated by means of singular value decomposition (SVD). From an atmospheric perspective, the seasonal variation of SST plays a critical role in the onset of the monsoon and the convective rain band movement associated with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The SST variation, in turn, is affected by the monsoon through cloud-radiation and wind-evaporation feedbacks. The analyses show that the relationships between precipitation and SST in both oceans vary significantly through the rainy season. In April, ENSO is strongly correlated with the precipitation over the VCH, while Indian Ocean SST only shows a significant correlation with precipitation in the northern VCH. In May, there is no significant relationship between precipitation and SST in either of the oceans. In June, precipitation over the VCH is negatively correlated with northern Indian Ocean and eastern off-equatorial Pacific SST. Through July to September, no significant relationships were found between Indian Ocean SST and precipitation patterns despite the existence of high correlations in SST patterns. Equatorial central to eastern Pacific SST, in turn, is positively correlated with precipitation in a small area from the north to the south of the VCH through the months. In October, precipitation over the VCH is strongly related to ENSO and positively correlated with equatorial eastern Indian Ocean SST. For November, the northwestern Pacific as well as the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean SST is positively and strongly correlated with precipitation over the VCH. Lag-time analyses reveal that Pacific SST has the potential for forecasting monthly precipitation patterns through the rainy season from one to three months in advance, while Indian Ocean SST is only a significant predictor one to two months in advance for monthly precipitation in October and November. Pacific SST is the good long-term predictor for precipitation over the VCH through all the months of the rainy season.
