Morgan Kaufmann Series in Representation and Reasoning
Ronad J. Brachmann, Series Editor
"Readings in Uncertain Reasoning"
Edited by Glenn Shafer, University of Kansas
and Judea Pearl, University of California, Los Angeles
with a contribution by Paul R. Cohen, University of Massachusetts, Amherst
Most everyday reasoning and decision making is based on uncertain premises.
Human actions are based on guesses, often requiring explicit weighting of conflicting stimuli and evidence.
The readings in this book address the methods that have been used in artificial intelligence to build systems with the ability to manage uncertainty.
An authoritative and thorough colleciton of work, this volume presents forty-two key papers from the literature. In addition, the editors have provided introductions to the volume and to groups of papers that offer informative commentary and unifying perspective. In selecting the readings for the volume, the editors have represented all of the major approaches to work in the field and have related them to the historical tradition of probabilistic methods.
This volume will be useful as a text or supplement for courses in artificial intelligence with an emphasis on expert systems and commonsense reasoning. It will also be valuable reference for researchers, system developers and students in computer science, statistics, operations research, engineering, cognitive science and many other fields.
Author(s): Glenn Shafer, Judea Pearl
Edition: 1
Publisher: Morgan Kauffmann Publishers, Inc.
Year: 1990
Language: English
Pages: 768
City: San Mateo, California
Tags: Artificial Intelligence, Uncertainty, Reasoning, Probability
Contents
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v - Acknowledgements
Chapter 1: Introduction (by Glenn Shafer and Judea Pearl)
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Chapter 2: The Meaning of Probability
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7 - Introduction by Glenn Shafer
14 - 2.1 - The Foundations of Statistics Reconsidered (1961) (L.J. Savage)
21 - 2.2 - Why isn't Everyone a Bayesian? (1986) (B. Efron)
32 - 2.3 - Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974) (A. Tversky and D. Kahneman)
40 - 2.4 - Languages and Designs for Probability Judgement (1985) (G. Shafer and A. Tversky)
55 - 2.5 - Conditional Independence and its Representations (1989) (J. Pearl, D. Geiger, and T. Verma)
Chapter 3: Decision Making
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61 - Introduction by Glenn Shafer
68 - 3.1 - A Tutorial Introduction to Decision Theory (1968) (D.W. North)
79 - 3.2 - Evaluating Influence Diagrams (1986) (R.D. Shachter)
91 - 3.3 - Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions (1986) (A. Tversky and D. Kahneman)
105 - 3.4 - Critical Decisions under Uncertainty: Representation and Structure (1988) (B. Kuipers, A.J. Moskowitz, and J.P. Kassirer)
122 - 3.5 - Savage Revisited (1986) (G. Shafer)
161 - 3.6 - Computer Programs to Support Clinical Decision Making (1987) (E.H. Shortliffe)
Chapter 4: Architectures and Strategies for Reasoning Under Uncertainty
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167 - Introduction by Paul R. Cohen
177 - 4.1 - The Control of Reasoning under Uncertainty: A Discussion of Some Programs (1987) (P.R. Cohen)
198 - 4.2 - Predictability versus Responsiveness: Coordinating Problem Solvers in Dynamic Domains (1987) (E.H. Durfee and V.R. Lesser)
204 - 4.3 - A Robust Layered Control System for a Mobile Robot (1986) (R.A. Brooks)
214 - 4.4 - A Therapy Planning Architecture that Combines Decision Theory and Artificial Intelligence Techniques (1987) (C.P. Langlotz, L.M. Fagan, S.W. Tu, B.I. Sikic, and E.H. Shortliffe)
239 - 4.5 - Summarizing and Propagating Uncertain Information with Triangular Norms (1987) (P.P. Bonissone)
Chapter 5: Numerical Uncertainty in Expert Systems
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255 - Introduction by Judea Pearl
259 - 5.1 - A Model of Inexact Reasoning in Medicine (1975) (E.H. Shortliffe and B.G. Buchanan)
274 - 5.2 - Subjective Bayesian Methods for Rule-Based Inference Systems (1976) (R.O. Duda, P.E. Hart, and N.J. Nilsson)
282 - 5.3 - Categorical and Probabilistic Reasoning in Medical Diagnosis (1978) (P. Szolovits and S.G. Pauker)
298 - 5.4 - Probabilistic Interpretation for MYCIN's Certainty Factors (1986) (D. Heckerman)
313 - 5.5 - A Statistical View of Uncertainty in Expert Systems (1986) (D.J. Spiegelhalter)
332 - 5.6 - HUGIN - A Shell for Building Bayesian Belief Universes for Expert Systems (1989) (S.K. Andersen, K.G. Olesen, F.V. Jensen, and F. Jensen)
Chapter 6: The Bayesian Approach
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339 - Introduction by Judea Pearl
345 - 6.1 - Bayesian Decision Methods (1987) (J. Pearl)
353 - 6.2 - Probability, Frequency and Reasonable Expectation (1946) (R.T. Cox)
366 - 6.3 - Fusion, Propagation, and Structuring in Belief Networks (1986) (J. Pearl)
415 - 6.4 - Local Computations with Probabilities on Graphical Structures and Their Application to Expert Systems (1988) (S.L. Lauritzen and D.J. Spiegelhalter)
449 - 6.5 - On Evidential Reasoning in a Hierarchy of Hypotheses (1987) (J. Pearl)
452 - 6.6 - Stochastic Relaxation, Gibbs Distribution, and the Bayesian Restoration of Images (1984) (S. Geman and D. Geman)
Chapter 7: Belief Functions
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473 - Introduction by Glenn Shafer
482 - 7.1 - The Bayesian and Belief-Function Formalisms - A General Perspective for Auditing (1990) (G. Shafer and R. Srivastava)
522 - 7.2 - Uncertain Evidence and Artificial Intelligence (1988) (A.P. Dempster and A. Kong)
529 - 7.3 - The Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence (1984) (J. Gordon and E.H. Shortliffe)
540 - 7.4 - Bayesian and Belief-Functions Formalisms for Evidential Reasoning: A Conceptual Analysis (1989) (J. Pearl)
575 - 7.5 - Axioms for Probability and Belief-Function Propagation (1990) (P.P. Shenoy and G. Shafer)
611 - 7.6 - A Framework for Evidential-Reasoning Systems (1986) (J.D. Lowrance, T.D. Garvey, and T.M. Strat)
619 - 7.7 - Evidential Reasoning under DELIEF (1988) (D. Zarley, Y.-T. Hsia and G. Shafer)
Chapter 8: Non-Numerical Approaches to Plausible Inference
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625 - Introduction by Glenn Shafer and Judea Pearl
629 - 8.1 - Fragments of a Theory of Human Plausible Reasoning (1978) (A. Collins)
637 - 8.2 - Nonmonotonic Reasoning (1967) (R. Reiter)
657 - 8.3 - Extended Inference Modes in Reasoning by Computer Systems (1980) (T. Winograd)
668 - 8.4 - Implicit ordering of Defaults in Inheritance Systems (1984) (D.S. Touretzky)
672 - 8.5 - An Endorsement-Based Plan Recognition Program (1985) (M. Sullivan and P.R. Cohen)
Chapter 9: Integrating Probability and Logic
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677 - Introduction by Judea Pearl
680 - 9.1 Probabilistic Logic (1986) (N.J. Nilsson)
689 - 9.2 Methodological Simplicity in Expert System Construction: The Case of Judgement and Reasoned Assumptions (1983) (J. Doyle)
694 - 9.3 Belief Maintenance: An Integrated Approach to Uncertainty Management (1988) (K.B. Laskey and P.E. Lehner)
699 - 9.4 Probabilistic Semantics for Nonmonotonic Reasoning: A Survey (1989) (J. Pearl)
711 - 9.5 Qualitative Probabilistic Networks for Planning Under Uncertainty (1988) (M.P. Wellman)
723 - 9.6 Defaults and Probabilities: Extensions and Coherence (1989) (E. Neufeld)
735 - 9.7 Embracing Causality in Default Reasoning (1988) (J. Pearl)
742 - 9.8 An Introduction to Possibilistic and Fuzzy Logics (D. Dubois and H. Prade)
763 - Index
767 - Credits
