In the 21st century, the populations of the world’s nations will display large and long-lived changes in age structure. Many of these began with fertility change and are amplified by declining mortality and by migration within and between nations. Demography will matter in this century not by force of numbers, but by the pressures of waves of age structural change. Many developing countries are in relatively early stages of fertility decline and will experience age waves for two or more generations. These waves create shifting flows of people into the key age groups, greatly complicating the task of managing development, from building human capabilities and creating jobs to growing industry, infrastructure and institutions. In this book, distinguished scientists examine key demographic, social, economic, and policy aspects of age structural change in developing economies. This book provides a joint examination of dimensions of age structural change that have often been considered in isolation from each other (for example, education, job creation, land use, health); it uses case studies to examine policy consequences and options and develops qualitative and formal methods to analyze the dynamics and consequences of age structural change.
Author(s): Shripad Tuljapurkar, Ian Pool, Vipan Prachuabmoh
Edition: 1
Year: 2005
Language: English
Pages: 252
1402034121......Page 1
CONTENTS......Page 6
Preface......Page 8
Acknowledgements......Page 10
The Authors......Page 11
Introduction......Page 13
1. Age-Structural Transitions, Population Waves and “Political Arithmetick”......Page 14
Part I: Issues and Patterns......Page 22
2. Age-Structural Transitions and Policy: Frameworks......Page 23
3. Human Capital Aspects of Economic Development: A Comparative Perspective in Asia......Page 50
4. A Comparative History of Age-Structure and Social Transitions among Asian Youth......Page 66
Part II: Policy Analysis, Models and Methods......Page 98
5. A Formal Model of Age-Structural Transitions......Page 99
6. Projecting Numbers of Living Children of Old People with an Example from Thailand......Page 114
7. Toward a Concept of Population Balance Considering Age-Structure, Human Capital, and Intergenerational Equity......Page 125
8. Structural and Policy Consequences of Mortality and Fertility Decline......Page 144
Part III: Country-Specific Transitions and Challenges......Page 160
9. Policy Implications for Old-Age Economic Support of Changes in Thailand’s Age Structure: A New Challenge......Page 161
10. Changing Family Structure in Turkey, 1968–1998......Page 184
11. The ‘Youth Bulge’ and Agriculture in the Philippines......Page 205
12. Singapore’s Changing Age Structure: Issues and Policy Implications for the Family and State......Page 222
A......Page 244
E......Page 245
G......Page 246
L......Page 247
P......Page 248
S......Page 250
T......Page 251
Y......Page 252
