Macro-level dynamics and modelling are well represented in the mainstream political risk literature. However, not many writings on the subject get their hands dirty in terms of revealing the hard, nuanced and practical work behind knowing what the issues might be for a specific foreign operation in a sensitive or volatile context, and how to plan for them.
Political Risk Intelligence for Business Operations in Complex Environments provides international managers, and by extension their organisations, with a foundational understanding of political risk analysis and planning for on-the-ground operations in challenging times and places. This means having a fluid grasp of what political risk means and why it matters in the organisation’s context, and how relevant intelligence can be gathered and analysed to inform decisions and planning towards an operation’s socio-political resilience.
The book explains:
- How and why political risk manifests and the forms it can take
- Company attitudes and operational attributes as a political risk variable
- Understanding the operational implications of socio-political dynamics and trends
- Stakeholder identification and analysis for informed engagement planning
- Scenario analysis to prepare for long-term contingencies and discontinuities
- Holistic, intelligence-driven political risk management planning
- Tactical intelligence exercises to maintain awareness and inform adaptation
- Intelligence management, collection and quality control
- Ethical considerations in political risk management
Rather than being bound by conventional notions of risk, the book emphasises the dynamic relationship between a foreign operation and its host environment and milieu as a source of both challenges and opportunities to manage them. Concepts, frameworks and practices are rounded out with real-world examples and relevant lessons from the author’s experience as a political risk consultant.
Author(s): Robert Mckellar
Publisher: Routledge
Year: 2023
Language: English
Pages: 429
City: New York
Cover
Half Title
Title Page
Copyright Page
Table of Contents
Author
List of Abbreviations
Introduction
An Iran Story
Objectives
Scope: What Focus and Why
A Reader’s Guide
Part I: Core Concepts
Chapter 1: Political Risk
As a Field and Practice
Definition and Characterisation
Three Illustrative Cases
AES in Georgia, 1999–2003: Systemic Challenge and Entanglement
Sainsbury’s in Egypt, 1999–2001: Political Risk Exacerbated by Cultural Missteps
Statoil in Algeria, 2013: Political Risk as Security Risk and as a Surprise Occurrence
References
Chapter 2: Complex Environments
A Sense of Complex
The Individual Citizen Analogy
A System of Socio-Political Complexity
Influences
Core System Elements: Political Risk Drivers
Governance
Social Relations
Socio-Economic Development
Symptoms: Political Risk Factors
Government (Mis-) Behaviour
Instability
Conflict
Chapter 3: Country Operations
Characterising Country Operations
Origins
Phase
Sector
Mode of Entry
An Operation as a Relationship System
Socio-Political Stakeholders
Socio-Political Profile
Assets Exposed to Political Risk
People
Reputation
Control
Continuity
Company Attitudes as a Political Risk Factor
References
Chapter 4: Introduction to Intelligence
Characterising Intelligence
Related Business Practices
Business Intelligence
Enterprise Risk Management
Strategy Formulation
Roles and Limits of Intelligence
Roles
Opportunity
Critical Factors
Foresight
Actors and Interests
Warning
Risk
Threat
Limits
References
Part II: The Baseline Intelligence Exercise
Chapter 5: Baseline Intelligence Exercise Overview
What, When and Why
Design Considerations
A Basic Problem
Bottom-Up Approach
Risk Checklist Approach
Operation-Centric Approach
Elements and Process
Chapter 6: Context and Focus
About the Operation
The Six Basic Questions
Operation Backstory
Assets and Dependencies
Political Risk Management
About the Socio-Political Environment
Indicators Snapshot
Country Backstory
Current System Overview and Scan
Cases and Real Experiences
Stock-Take and Final Checks
Stock-Take
Final Checks
Chapter 7: Terrain Analysis
Factor Analysis
Challenge Formulation
Challenge Formulation Examples
Clean-up and Refinement
Final Assessment and Prioritisation
Plausibility Assessment
Implications Assessment
Prioritisation
Final Results and Planning Inputs
Chapter 8: Stakeholder Analysis
Identification and Targeting
Clarifying the Units of Analysis
Preliminary Operational Profile
Identification Frameworks
Mind Mapping
Identification Matrix
Proximity Mapping
Stage Mapping
Derivation from Terrain Challenges
Identification Research: Discerning Real Actors
Domains
The Concept and Utility of Domains
Domain Definition
Domain Mapping
Town A: The Case of a Dynamic Local Ecosystem
Government Domains When Institutions Are Weak
Civil Society Domain Segments
Business Domains with Political-Business Networks
Armed Group/Criminal Domain
Stakeholder Investigation
Analytical Approach
The Path Towards Attitude
The Path Towards Influence
Potential Stakeholder Responses
Supporting Characterisation
Stakeholder Investigation Output Example
Regime Rival Faction (Military Faction – MF)
Who / What
Values and Interests
Rivalries and Relationships
Attitude to the Operation
Influence
Contingent Change in Influence: Coup
Potential Responses to the Operation Under Current Power Structure
Preliminary Indications for Engagement
Relationship and Linkage Mapping
Master Linkage Maps
Exploratory Linkage Mapping
Sense-Making
Attitude-Influence Matrix Insights
Key Reasons for Directions of Attitude
Summarising the Main Issues
Chapter 9: Political Risk Management Planning
Target Issues
Issue Categories from a Management Perspective
Issue Integration and Categorisation
Initiative Formulation
Initiatives for Core Issues
Host Community Friction, West African Highway Case
Crony Pressure, MENA IT Consultancy Case
Initiatives for Contingent Issues
Coup or Coup Attempt, West African Highway Case
Local Staff Detention, MENA IT Consultancy Case
Initiatives for Routine Issues
Ministry of Transport Interference, West African Highway Case
Bureaucratic Corruption, MENA IT Consultancy Case
Programme Definition
Functional Programmes
Stakeholder Agendas and Engagement Programmes
Strategy
Strategy Statement
Trade-offs
Implementation Structure and Resource Check
Timelines
Final Testing
Chapter 10: Scenario Analysis
Scoping
Factor Identification and Selection
Factor Directions and Links
Scenario Formulation
Scenario Construction
Scenario Development
Timelines and Signposts
The Unthinkables
Scenario Assessment
Planning
Baseline Intelligence Exercise Conclusions
Chapter 11: Supplementary Intelligence Exercises
Monitoring
Feasibility Assessment
Tactical Analysis
Conflict Analysis
Threat Assessment
Conclusions
Part III: The Practice of Intelligence
Chapter 12: Intelligence Management
The Intelligence Cycle: Roles and Workflows
Managing an Intelligence Task
The What: An Intelligence Case
The Who: The Intelligence Case Team
Intelligence Reporting
Intelligence Process versus Reports
Documented Report Formats and Attributes
Interactive Reporting
Intelligence Dissemination
Chapter 13: Intelligence Sources
Some Groundwork: Sources and Learning, Source Attributes
Contextual and Background Open Sources
Mid-Stage Open Sources
Fieldwork and Human Sources
The Rationale
Human Sources
Observation
Interviews
Managing Fieldwork Risks
References
Chapter 14: Intelligence Quality Pitfalls and Remedies
Intelligence Practitioners
Intelligence-User Relationship
User Organisation
References
Concluding Thoughts
Organisational Considerations
The Changing Landscape
Questions of Ethics
Index
