OECD Economic Surveys 2003-2004: Poland

Table of contents......Page 4
Assessment and recommendations......Page 9
An export-led recovery......Page 23
Table 1.1. Quarterly gross domestic product......Page 26
Figure 1.2. The exchange rate and industrial competitiveness......Page 27
Table 1.2. Balance of payments on a transaction basis......Page 28
Table 1.3. Value added by sector......Page 29
Figure 1.3. Labour market developments......Page 30
Slowing potential output growth and a large output gap......Page 31
Figure 1.1. Recent economic developments......Page 24
Figure 1.5. Inflation developments......Page 32
The short-term outlook......Page 33
Figure 1.6. Business indicators......Page 34
Table 1.4. Short-term outlook......Page 35
Restoring public finances to a sustainable path......Page 36
Speeding the convergence process......Page 37
Figure 1.8. Potential output and catching up......Page 38
Figure 1.9. Factors underlying potential output......Page 39
Figure 1.10. International comparison of labour market performance......Page 40
Figure 1.11. Key labour market indicators......Page 42
Figure 1.12. The wage distribution......Page 43
Figure 1.13. Employment rates by age......Page 44
Figure 1.14. Regional distribution of unemployment......Page 45
Figure 1.15. Investment performance......Page 47
Addressing the challenges......Page 49
Table 1.5. Simulated impact of various reforms......Page 50
Simultaneous reform in both product and labour markets is essential to success......Page 53
Notes......Page 54
Bibliography......Page 55
Annex A. Long-term simulations......Page 56
Figure 1.A1.1. Sources of additional potential output......Page 57
The inflation-targeting framework......Page 61
Figure 2.1. Inflation and the NBP’s inflation targets......Page 62
The conduct of monetary policy......Page 64
Figure 2.2. Interest rate developments......Page 66
Figure 2.3. Monetary conditions......Page 67
Figure 2.4. Yield curves......Page 68
Adopting the euro......Page 69
Figure 2.5. Taylor rule......Page 70
Box 2.1. Poland’s position with respect to the Maastricht Criteria for euro adoption......Page 71
Figure 2.6. Poland’s position with respect to the Maastricht criteria......Page 72
Fiscal policy......Page 73
Table 2.2. Various measures of the stance of fiscal policy......Page 74
Box 2.2. Accounting for the private pension scheme......Page 75
The fiscal stance......Page 76
Budget outturns in 2002 and 2003......Page 77
Box 2.3. Major measures in the 2002 and 2003 budgets......Page 78
Table 2.4. Government accounts......Page 79
The 2004 Budget......Page 80
Box 2.4. Impact of EU accession on Poland and the budget......Page 81
Table 2.5. Estimated net impact of EU transfers to Poland......Page 83
Table 2.6. Public debt and privatisation revenues......Page 84
Box 2.5. The Public Expenditure Reform plan......Page 86
Table 2.7. Proposed expenditure savings in the government’s Public Expenditure Reform......Page 87
Figure 2.7. Slippage in medium-term budgeting......Page 89
Table 2.8. Expenditures and revenues of some extrabudgetary funds......Page 91
Conclusions......Page 90
Notes......Page 93
Bibliography......Page 95
Personal transfer systems......Page 97
Figure 3.1. Relative importance of different personal transfers......Page 98
Box 3.1. The disability pension schemes......Page 99
Table 3.1. Age-specific disability benefit inflow rates......Page 100
Box 3.2. Other labour force withdrawal schemes......Page 101
Figure 3.3. Population shares of the employed and disability and pre-retirement pensioners......Page 102
Box 3.3. The special farmers pension system (KRUS)......Page 103
The transfer system considered as a whole......Page 104
Figure 3.4. Income sources of the non-employed......Page 105
Figure 3.5. Social transfers and the distribution of income......Page 106
Figure 3.6. Net replacement rates......Page 107
Box 3.5. Labour market reforms currently under consideration by the Polish authorities......Page 109
Lower labour costs......Page 114
Figure 3.7. Minimum wages and the distribution of wages......Page 115
Figure 3.8. Regional incidence of the minimum wage......Page 116
Reduce the tax wedge......Page 117
Figure 3.9. The tax wedge on labour in the OECD......Page 118
Increase the effectiveness of active labour market policy......Page 119
Table 3.2. The structure of Labour Fund expenditures......Page 120
Box 3.6. Active labour market policies in Poland......Page 121
Increase the flexibility of working-rules......Page 123
Figure 3.10. Part-time and fixed-term contracts......Page 125
Improve the level and relevance of formal education......Page 126
Table 3.3. Rural vs. urban educational performance......Page 127
Figure 3.11. Regional per pupil primary-school spending by income level......Page 128
Conclusion......Page 130
Box 3.8. Summary of labour market recommendations......Page 131
Notes......Page 134
Bibliography......Page 136
Policies to improve the environment for investment......Page 137
Investment performance......Page 138
Making more productive use of domestic savings......Page 139
Figure 4.1. Banking sector: comparative statistics......Page 140
Box 4.1. Banking-sector privatisation......Page 141
Figure 4.2. Interest-rate spreads......Page 142
Enforcing property rights and facilitating restructuring......Page 143
Improving the land registry......Page 145
Increasing the efficiency of capital markets......Page 146
Box 4.2. Open Pension Funds......Page 147
Tax administration and tax policy......Page 148
Towards modern foreign direct investment promotion strategy......Page 150
Policies to improve productivity and profitability......Page 151
Infrastructure......Page 153
Figure 4.3. Motorway densities......Page 154
Privatisation and restructuring......Page 158
Figure 4.4. Privatisation progress in selected transition economies......Page 159
Table 4.2. State-owned and controlled enterprises......Page 160
Box 4.4. The status of privatisation and restructuring in the industrial sector......Page 161
Rural development......Page 164
The farmers’ social security system and small-farm consolidation......Page 165
Figure 4.6. Market orientation of Polish farms......Page 166
Table 4.3. Number of private farms by size......Page 167
Box 4.5. Ownership restrictions on agricultural property......Page 169
Rural income transfers......Page 170
Table 4.4. Sources of farm household income by farm size......Page 171
Table 4.5. Expenditures of the Agency for reconstruction and modernisation of agriculture......Page 172
Box 4.6. The Special Accession Programme for Agriculture and Rural Development - (SAPARD)......Page 173
Summing up......Page 174
Table 4.6. Structural surveillance......Page 175
Notes......Page 184
Bibliography......Page 188
Performance......Page 191
Policies......Page 192
Table 5.1. Main indicators: climate change......Page 193
Table 5.2. Greenhouse gas emissions and sectoral indicators......Page 194
Main issues......Page 197
Policies......Page 198
Table 5.3. Main indicators: air pollution......Page 199
Table 5.4. Emission fees and estimated benefits of reducing emissions......Page 200
Main issues......Page 201
Policy......Page 202
Table 5.5. Performance indicators: sustainable retirement income......Page 203
Figure 5.1. Number of individuals receiving pensions under the old and new systems......Page 205
Figure 5.2. Total administrative charges and costs to pensioners in privately managed funds......Page 208
Table 5.6. Limitations on open pension fund portfolios......Page 209
Conclusions......Page 210
Notes......Page 211
Bibliography......Page 213
Annex A. Chronology of main economic events......Page 215
Glossary of acronyms......Page 218