Washington, DC: National Research Council (NRC), National Academy Press, 1985. — 204 pp. — ISBN: 0-309-55466-7.The Committee on the Atmospheric Effects of Nuclear Explosions addressed the following charge: (1) determine the manner in which the atmosphere of the earth would be modified by a major exchange of nuclear weapons and, insofar as the current state of knowledge and understanding permits, give a quantitative description of the more important of the changes, and (2) recommend research and exploratory work appropriate to a better understanding of the question. The committee was not asked to (and did not) address the related but distinct questions of the extent of radioactive fallout or the biological or social implications of postwar atmospheric modification. Recent calculations by different investigators suggest that the climatic effects from a major nuclear exchange could be large in scale. Although there are enormous uncertainties involved in the calculations, the committee believes that long-term climatic effects with severe implications for the biosphere could occur, and these effects should be included in any analysis of the consequences of nuclear war. However, the committee cannot subscribe with confidence to any specific quantitative conclusions drawn from calculations based on current scientific knowledge. The estimates are necessarily rough and can only be used as a general indication of the seriousness of what might occur.
Despite the early state of understanding of these matters, the possibility of severe degradation of the atmosphere after a major nuclear exchange is of sufficient national and international concern that a major effort to narrow the scientific uncertainties should be given a high priority.Contents.
Summary and Conclusions.
Recommendations for Research.
The Baseline Nuclear Exchange.
Dust.
Fires.
Chemistry.
Atmospheric Effects and Interactions.
Use of Climatic Effects of Volcanic Eruptions and Extraterrestrial Impacts on the Earth as Analogs.
Appendix: Evolution of Knowledge About Long-Term Nuclear Effects.
Index.
