Mathletics is a remarkably entertaining book that shows readers how to use simple mathematics to analyze a range of statistical and probability-related questions in professional baseball, basketball, and football, and in sports gambling. How does professional baseball evaluate hitters? Is a singles hitter like Wade Boggs more valuable than a power hitter like David Ortiz? Should NFL teams pass or run more often on first downs? Could professional basketball have used statistics to expose the crooked referee Tim Donaghy? Does money buy performance in professional sports? In Mathletics, Wayne Winston describes the mathematical methods that top coaches and managers use to evaluate players and improve team performance, and gives math enthusiasts the practical tools they need to enhance their understanding and enjoyment of their favorite sports--and maybe even gain the outside edge to winning bets. Mathletics blends fun math problems with sports stories of actual games, teams, and players, along with personal anecdotes from Winston's work as a sports consultant. Winston uses easy-to-read tables and illustrations to illuminate the techniques and ideas he presents, and all the necessary math concepts--such as arithmetic, basic statistics and probability, and Monte Carlo simulations--are fully explained in the examples. After reading Mathletics, you will understand why baseball teams should almost never bunt, why football overtime systems are unfair, why points, rebounds, and assists aren't enough to determine who's the NBA's best player--and much, much more.
Author(s): Wayne L. Winston
Edition: First Edition
Year: 2009
Language: English
Pages: 376
Contents......Page 8
Preface......Page 12
Acknowledgments......Page 14
List of Abbreviations......Page 16
Part I. Baseball......Page 20
1. Baseball’s Pythagorean Theorem......Page 22
The Runs-Created Approach......Page 30
3. Evaluating Hitters by Linear Weights......Page 36
4. Evaluating Hitters by Monte Carlo Simulation......Page 49
5. Evaluating Baseball Pitchers and Forecasting Future Pitcher Performance......Page 60
6. Baseball Decision-Making......Page 71
Sabermetrics’ Last Frontier......Page 83
8. Player Win Averages......Page 90
Evaluating Trades and Fair Salary......Page 98
10. Park Factors......Page 103
11. Streakiness in Sports......Page 106
12. The Platoon Effect......Page 121
13. Was Tony Perez a Great Clutch Hitter?......Page 125
14. Pitch Count and Pitcher Effectiveness......Page 129
15. Would Ted Williams Hit .406 Today?......Page 132
16. Was Joe DiMaggio’s 56-Game Hitting Streak the Greatest Sports Record of All Time?......Page 135
17. Major League Equivalents......Page 142
Part II. Football......Page 144
18. What Makes NFL Teams Win?......Page 146
19. Who’s Better, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning?......Page 151
20. Football States and Values......Page 157
21. Football Decision-Making 101......Page 162
22. A State and Value Analysis of the 2006 Super Bowl Champion Colts......Page 170
23. If Passing Is Better Than Running, Why Don’t Teams Always Pass?......Page 177
24. Should We Go for a One-Point or Two-Point Conversion?......Page 184
The Case of College Football Overtime......Page 191
26. Why Is the NFL’s Overtime System Fatally Flawed?......Page 194
27. How Valuable Are High Draft Picks in the NFL?......Page 199
Part III. Basketball......Page 204
The Four-Factor Model......Page 206
29. Linear Weights for Evaluating NBA Players......Page 214
30. Adjusted +/– Player Ratings......Page 221
31. NBA Lineup Analysis......Page 243
32. Analyzing Team and Individual Matchups......Page 247
33. NBA Players’ Salaries and the Draft......Page 252
34. Are NBA Officials Prejudiced?......Page 256
35. Are College Basketball Games Fixed?......Page 261
36. Did Tim Donaghy Fix NBA Games?......Page 263
37. End-Game Basketball Strategy......Page 267
Part IV. Playing with Money, and Other Topics for Serious Sports Fans......Page 272
38. Sports Gambling 101......Page 274
39. Freakonomics Meets the Bookmaker......Page 281
40. Rating Sports Teams......Page 285
41. Which League Has Greater Parity, The NFL or the NBA?......Page 302
42. The Ratings Percentage Index (RPI)......Page 306
43. From Point Ratings to Probabilities......Page 309
The Kelly Growth Criteria......Page 317
45. Ranking Great Sports Collapses......Page 322
46. Can Money Buy Success?......Page 330
47. Does Joey Crawford Hate the Spurs?......Page 338
The Case of NBA Back-to-Back Games and NFL Bye Weeks......Page 340
49. Can the Bowl Championship Series Be Saved?......Page 343
50. Comparing Players from Different Eras......Page 350
51. Conclusions......Page 354
Index of Databases......Page 360
Annotated Bibliography......Page 362
C......Page 372
G......Page 373
M......Page 374
P......Page 375
W......Page 376
Z......Page 377
