Making Sense of Statistics (Palgrave Study Guides)

Cover......Page 1
Contents......Page 8
List of Figures......Page 12
List of Tables......Page 14
Preface......Page 16
1.1 Statistics......Page 18
1.2 The difficulties of statistics......Page 20
1.3 Non-mathematical methods......Page 22
1.4 Bucket and ball models and computer simulation......Page 24
1.5 Numbers, calculators and computers......Page 27
1.6 Suggestions for studying statistics and using this book......Page 28
2.1 Probability......Page 33
2.2 What do the balls and buckets represent?......Page 36
2.3 Where do probabilities come from?......Page 37
2.5 Sampling......Page 38
2.6 Similar concepts......Page 42
2.7 Exercises......Page 43
2.8 Summary of main points......Page 44
3.1 Introduction......Page 45
3.2 What can a sample tell us about?......Page 46
3.3 Variables, cases and units of analysis......Page 47
3.4 Summarising a single variable......Page 48
3.5 Summarising the relation between two category variables......Page 56
3.7 Summarising the relation between two number variables......Page 57
3.8 Summarising the relation between three or more variables......Page 65
3.9 Beyond the data: cause, effect and the wider context......Page 66
3.10 Similar concepts......Page 68
3.11 Exercises......Page 69
3.12 Summary of main points......Page 71
4.1 Introduction......Page 72
4.2 Characteristic features of the statistical approach......Page 73
4.3 What sort of conclusions does statistics provide?......Page 74
4.4 What are the alternatives to statistics?......Page 76
4.5 Anecdotes about specific cases......Page 77
4.6 Fuzzy logic......Page 78
4.7 Chaos......Page 80
4.9 Summary of main points......Page 84
5.1 Working out probabilities by listing equally likely possibilities......Page 86
5.2 Working out probabilities by thought experiments: the lots of times tactic......Page 87
5.3 Working out probabilities by computer simulation......Page 92
5.4 Simulating distributions of probabilities: the two bucket model......Page 94
5.5 The Poisson distribution: counts of random events......Page 98
5.6 The normal distribution......Page 102
5.8 Exercises......Page 107
5.9 Summary of main points......Page 109
6.1 Introduction......Page 111
6.2 An experiment on telepathy......Page 112
6.4 Bayes' principle: the pruned ball method......Page 113
6.6 Null hypothesis testing......Page 118
6.7 Exercises......Page 120
6.8 Summary of main points......Page 121
7.1 Introduction......Page 122
7.2 Bootstrap confidence intervals......Page 123
7.3 Large populations: does size matter?......Page 129
7.4 What is the smallest sample we can get away with?......Page 130
7.5 Other statistics: proportions, quartiles, correlations and so on......Page 132
7.6 Assumptions behind bootstrap confidence intervals: what to check for......Page 134
7.7 Similar concepts......Page 135
7.8 Exercises......Page 136
7.9 Summary of main points......Page 138
8.1 An example: testing the hypothesis that a doctor is not a murderer......Page 139
8.2 General procedure and rationale for null hypothesis tests......Page 141
8.3 Testing a hypothesis that there is no relationship......Page 142
8.4 An alternative: confidence intervals for a relationship......Page 148
8.5 The interpretation of p values......Page 150
8.6 Why p values can be misleading: things to watch for......Page 152
8.7 Choosing a method of inference: p values and other approaches......Page 155
8.8 Similar concepts......Page 156
8.9 Exercises......Page 158
8.10 Summary of main points......Page 159
9.1 Introduction: predicting earnings on the Isle of Fastmoney......Page 160
9.2 Straight line prediction models: linear regression......Page 162
9.3 Assessing the accuracy of prediction models......Page 168
9.4 Prediction models with several independent variables: multiple regression......Page 171
9.5 Using the regression procedures in Excel and SPSS......Page 176
9.6 Things to check for with regression......Page 177
9.7 Cause, effect, prediction and explanation......Page 179
9.8 Similar concepts......Page 181
9.9 Exercises......Page 182
9.10 Summary of main points......Page 183
10.1 The logic of empirical research: surveys, experiments and so on......Page 184
10.2 The practicalities of doing empirical research......Page 189
10.3 Interpreting statistical results and solving problems......Page 191
10.4 Similar concepts......Page 193
10.5 Exercises......Page 194
A. Using spreadsheets (Excel) for statistics......Page 195
A.2 Random number functions: generating samples and probabilities......Page 197
A.4 Pivot Table reports......Page 198
A.7 Producing a histogram......Page 199
B.1 Data entry......Page 200
B.2 Analysis: commonly used methods......Page 201
C. Data and program files for downloading......Page 202
D. Comments on some of the exercises......Page 204
Notes......Page 209
References......Page 218
B......Page 219
D......Page 220
L......Page 221
O......Page 222
R......Page 223
S......Page 224
V......Page 225
Y......Page 226