Link: How Decision Intelligence Connects Data, Actions, and Outcomes for a Better World

Front Cover
LINK: How Decision Intelligence Connects Data, Actions, and Outcomes for a Better World
Dedication
Contents
Foreword
Introduction
Chapter 1 Getting Serious about Decisions
Shifts in Perspective
The DI Solutions Renaissance
Separating “Under the Hood” from “the Driver’s Seat” Allows Sophisticated Disciplines to be Unified
The Solutions Renaissance in Context
How Did We Get Here: The Technology Hype Feedback Loop
The Core Question
Link Is about Decision Intelligence: A Focusing Lens on Complexity
The Link: Core to Decisions
Understanding Cause-and-effect Links
From Single- to Multi-link Thinking
Solving the Tragedy of the Commons
Evidence-based Decision making: What’s Broken
Who Is Using Decision Intelligence?
Decision Intelligence in Practice: A Technology Transformation Example
Making the Invisible Visible
The Intelligence of the Visual Spatial
The CDD Is the Right Scaffold
The DI Consensus
Why “Decision Intelligence?”
About Me
About Link
BOOK OVERVIEW
Notes
Chapter 2 Breaking through the Complexity Ceiling
The Origins of the CDD
How We Invented the CDD
CDD Examples
CDDs as a Framework for Integrating Other Technologies
How DI Extends Machine Learning: A Simple Example
The CDD “A ha” Moment
A Telecom Customer Care CDD Example
Decisions before Data
The Complexity Ceiling
Breaking through the Complexity Ceiling
Dimensions of Complexity
How Not to Handle Complexity
The Complexity Ceiling Leads to Unintended Consequences
Borrowing from engineering: Solutions to Complexity
Decision Intelligence Bridges from AI/ML Theory to Practice
The Democratization Power of Simplicity
The Right Decision in a Changing Context
Notes
Chapter 3 Technologies, Disciplines, and Other Puzzle Pieces of the Solutions Renaissance
The Web of Wicked Problems
Big Data
Warm Data
Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning
AI History: Winters and Summers
Understanding the Core of AI
Beyond Supervised Learning: AI’s Bigger Picture
AI in Context
Decision Models Are NOT Decision Trees
Causal Reasoning
Cybernetics
Complex Systems/Complexity Theory/Complexity Science
Simulation, Optimization, Foresight, and Operations Research
From Simulation to Optimization
Foresight
Operations Research
Simulation Organizations
Interdependencies and the Whack-a-mole
System Dynamics, Systems Analysis, and Systems Thinking
System Dynamics Can Trump Data
A System Dynamics Fishing Example
The Weakest Link
Transfer Learning
Intelligence Augmentation (IA)
Decision Analysis
Populating Links: Analytic Hierarchy Process and Sketch Graphs
Design and Design Thinking
Game Theory
Knowledge Management
Statistics
Conclusion
Notes
Chapter 4 How to Build Decision Models
This Material Is Useful at Multiple Levels
Who Benefits from Decision Models?
Decision modeling Benefits
Some Decision modeling Examples
Decision Intelligence and Data
Divergent versus convergent Thinking
Building a Decision Model
Setup
Starting the Meeting
Determining the Project Rules of Engagement
Brainstorming Outcomes
Tangibles and Intangible Goals and Outcomes
Brainstorming Levers
Analyzing Levers
Convergent Phase: Analyzing Outcomes and Goals
Decision Boundary
Proxy Goals
Collecting Out-of-context Comments Respectfully
Brainstorming Externals
Wiring up the Model
Breadth before Depth
Determining the Role of Machine Learning
Using the Model
Conclusion
Examples of Decision Intelligence Deployments
Decision Intelligence at NASA’s Frontier Development Laboratory
Utilities and Operators
Subscriber Churn Is Part of a Multi-link Decision
Innovation Management
A Simple Web-based Interactive Decision Model for Training Decisions
Decision Intelligence for Market Decisions
Cable Company Sustainable Energy Generation
Decision Intelligence in Development and Conflict
Classic Mistakes/Best Practices
Failing to Communicate Outcomes
Miscommunications Regarding Delegated Authority
Failing to Brainstorm Outcomes
Confusing Proxies with Outcomes
Confusing Levers with Externals
Over-reliance on Data
Allowing Perfection to be the Enemy of the “Better”
Expecting Consensus
Responsibility without Corresponding Authority and Vice Versa
Assuming That Decision Modeling Requires a Sophisticated Technical Background
Confusing Predictions with Decisions
Notes
Chapter 5 The Power of the Decision Model Framework
DI as a Mechanism for Human/Machine Collaboration/Intelligence Augmentation (IA)
DI for Education
DI as a Tool to Support Decision making and Organizational Influence Mapping in Organizations/Companies and Governments
DI as the Technology that Glues the Tech Stack to the Human Stack
DI as the Core of Software that is Based on World Models
DI as a Leadership and Management Discipline
DI as a Risk Management Framework
DI as an Analysis Framework for AI Ethics and Responsibility
DI as a Software Engineering Discipline for AI
DI as a Context Layer that Extends AI to New Use Cases
DI as a Breakthrough Technology to Solve “Wicked” Problems
DI as a Way of Better Understanding Personal Decisions: Individually and Within Organizations
DI as a Meeting Discipline
DI as a Generative Model for Chatbots Supporting Decision making
DI as the Basis for a New Form of Dynamic “Wikipedia”
DI as a Foundation for Journalism in an Age of Complexity
DI as a Business Tracking Discipline
DI for Government Planning
DI for Intelligence Analysis
Chapter 6 Looking to the Future
New Ideas, New DI Evangelists
The Headwind of Disruption
The DI Ecosystem Today and Tomorrow
Emerging Data Scientist Specialist Roles
DI and the New Mythos
The Human Element
AI, DI, and the Law
Knowledge Gardens
Gandhism, Trusteeship, and Combating Wealth Inequality through DI
Conclusion
Acknowledgments
Notes
Bibliography
Index