Let Their People Come

Contents (iv)......Page 4
Preface (vii)......Page 7
Acknowledgments (xi)......Page 11
Introduction: Breaking the Gridlock on Labor Mobility (1)......Page 13
Five Irresistible Forces (5)......Page 17
Eight Immovable Ideas (7)......Page 19
Six Accommodations for Politically Acceptable, Development-Friendly Migration (10)......Page 22
1. Four Irresistible Forces for Increased Labor Mobility (13)......Page 25
Irresistible Force One: Large and Increasing Wage Gaps across Countries (14)......Page 26
Divergence and Income Gaps across Countries (15)......Page 27
Figure 1-1. Inequality in Incomes over Time, Showing Trend from Differences of People within Countries and Differences across Countries, 1800–2000 (16)......Page 28
Figure 1-2. Evolution of the Ratio of Per Capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between Pairs of Countries Linked by Proximity or Historical or Cultural Ties, 1955–2000 (17)......Page 29
Gaps in Wages (18)......Page 30
Figure 1-3. Ratios of Wages of Immigrant-Sending and -Destination Partners during the Era of Mass Migration Compared with the Ratios of Wages of Potential Sending and Destination Partners Today (19)......Page 31
What Do Migrants Earn When They Move? (20)......Page 32
Gaps as a Force for Migration (22)......Page 34
Table 1-2. Migration in the Era 1870–1910 (23)......Page 35
Table 1-3. Scenarios for Wage Growth in Poorer Countries and Implications for Pressure (Wage Gaps), Thresholds, and Propensity to Migrate (26)......Page 38
Evolutions of Population (27)......Page 39
Figure 1-4. The Relative Populations of the European Union (25 Members) and Its “Muslim Tier,” 1950–2050 (28)......Page 40
Figure 1-5. Projected Demographic “Pyramids” for Japan and Italy, 2050 (29)......Page 41
Irresistible Force Three: “Everything but Labor” Globalization (30)......Page 42
Why Not Labor? (31)......Page 43
Figure 1-6. Why Is this Graph Facetious? The Estimated Gains from the Liberalization of Labor Mobility Relative to Continued Trade Liberalization (33)......Page 45
Irresistible Force Four: Continued Employment Growth in Productivity-Resistant, Low-Skill, Hard-Core Nontradable Services (34)......Page 46
Table 1-5. Projections of the Top Twenty-Five Occupational Categories by Absolute Increase in Employment, 2000 and 2010 (35–37)......Page 47
Conclusion (42)......Page 54
2. The Fifth Irresistible Force: Ghosts and Zombies (43)......Page 55
What Is the “Desired” Population of a Region? (44)......Page 56
Figure 2-1. How Changes in the Demand for Labor Cause Pressures for Labor Mobility (46)......Page 58
Evidence of Shifts in Desired Populations: Regional Populations in the United States (47)......Page 59
Table 2-1. Population Change in Assembled Regions, 1930–90 (49)......Page 61
Figure 2-2. Changes in County Populations in the U.S. “Heartland” Region (Selected Counties of Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, and Kansas) (50)......Page 62
Adjustment of the Regions of Countries versus Countries in Output Growth and Population (51)......Page 63
Figure 2-4. Changes in County Populations in the U.S. “Pennsylvania Coal” Region (Selected Counties of Eastern Pennsylvania) (52)......Page 64
Figure 2-5. Changes in County Population in the U.S. “Great Plains North” Region (Selected Counties of Nebraska and South Dakota) (53)......Page 65
Figure 2-6. Large Shocks, Accommodated with Population Growth in Large Countries, Per Capita Growth across Non-OECD Countries versus the United States, Japan, and Canada (54)......Page 66
Figure 2-7. Large Shocks, Accommodated with Population Growth in Large Countries, Per Capita Growth across Non-OECD Countries versus European Countries (55)......Page 67
Figure 2-8. Changes in Real Wages and Population during the Period of Accommodating the Shock of the Potato Famine and Its Aftermath in Ireland, 1810–1920 (56)......Page 68
Implications for Labor Mobility (57)......Page 69
Table 2-2. How Large Is the Ghosthood? (60)......Page 72
Conclusion (61)......Page 73
3. Immovable Ideas: Myths and Truths (63)......Page 75
The Magnitude and Structure of Current Migration (64)......Page 76
Table 3-1. Foreign-Born Population of Rich Industrial OECD Countries from Developing Countries (66)......Page 78
Figure 3-1. The Foreign-Born Population as a Proportion of the
Total Population (69)......Page 81
Table 3-2. Emigration Rates from the Developing World Compared with Flows from European Countries in the Late Nineteenth Century (70)......Page 82
Table 3-3. Territories’ Fraction of the Population in the “Home”
Country Compared with That in Independent Countries (71)......Page 83
Increased Migration Is Unpopular in Industrial Countries (73)......Page 85
Table 3-4. Public Views on Immigration (74)......Page 86
Table 3-5. Support for Aid to Immigrants’ Home Countries in Countries Where Immigration Is Opposed (75)......Page 87
“Moral” Arguments That Justify Restricting Borders (77)......Page 89
Immovable Idea One: Nationality Is a Morally Legitimate Basis for Discrimination (79)......Page 91
Immovable Idea Two: Moral Perfectionism Based on “Proximity” (82)......Page 94
Immovable Idea Three: “Development” Is Exclusively about Nation-States, Not Nationals (86)......Page 98
Immovable Idea Four: Labor Movements Are Not “Necessary” (or Desirable) to Raise Living Standards (89)......Page 101
Self-Interested Arguments against Migration (92)......Page 104
Immovable Idea Five: Increased Migration of Unskilled Labor Will Worsen the Distribution of Income in the Receiving Countries and Decrease Wages or Increase Unemployment (93)......Page 105
Immovable Idea Six: Movers Are a Fiscal Cost Because They Use More in Public Services Than They Pay in Taxes (96)......Page 108
Immovable Idea Seven: Allowing Movement across Borders Creates Risks of Crime and Terrorism (98)......Page 110
Immovable Idea Eight: “They” Are Not Like “Us”— Culture Clash Arguments (99)......Page 111
Why Try and Put Labor Mobility on the Development Agenda? (100)......Page 112
Conclusion (103)......Page 115
4. Accommodating Forces and Ideas to Achieve Development-Friendly Labor Mobility (105)......Page 117
High-Skill-Based Policies Are Winning Rich-Country Debates about Migration (106)......Page 118
Meeting the “Eight Ideas” (108)......Page 120
Table 4-1. Analysis of Proposals for Increasing Migrant Quality (109)......Page 121
Can the WTO Move Beyond “Everything but Labor” Globalization? (114)......Page 126
Table 4-2. Summary of Analysis of GATS Mode 4 (115)......Page 127
Six Accommodations: Features of Politically Acceptable, Development-Friendly Schemes for the Temporary Mobility of Unskilled Labor (120)......Page 132
Accommodation One: Bilateral Agreements (Perhaps under an International Rubric)—or Perhaps Regional Agreements (121)......Page 133
Accommodation Two: Temporary Admission, Not “Migration” (122)......Page 134
Accommodation Three: Specific Occupational (and Regional) Quotas (123)......Page 135
Accommodation Four: Enhancing the Development Impact of Migration (127)......Page 139
Table 4-3. Distribution of Income Gains from Labor Force Expansion across Country Income Groups (128)......Page 140
Accommodation Five: Sending-Country Participation in Enforcement (130)......Page 142
Accommodation Six: Why “Protect Fundamental Human Rights”? (131)......Page 143
Summary of Temporary Schemes (133)......Page 145
Table 4-4. Schemes for Temporary Mobility of Unskilled Labor (134)......Page 146
Conclusion (135)......Page 147
Table 4-5. Summary of the Classes of Proposals for Increasing Labor Mobility (136)......Page 148
5. Conclusion: Let Their People Come (138)......Page 150
References (143)......Page 155
Index (147)......Page 159