Keynes on Uncertainty and Tragic Happiness: Complexity and Expectations

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Most economists who read the General Theory candidly admitted that they could not understand the theoretical apparatus and found it easy to recast it in traditional terms. This book provides a masterful guide to the generally unrecognized methodological revolution that supported the new theoretical concepts -- a veritable lodestone that complements and expands understanding on the treatment of the economic magnitudes appropriate to the ideal of generality in the social sciences, to the applicability  of probability, to the formulation of decision-making under uncertainty, and the foundations of economic policy in interdependent economic systems.                                                                                      _Jan Kregel, Levy  Economics Institute

Anna Carabelli sets out Keynes’s understanding of economics as a way of thinking, encompassing method and morals, rather than as a doctrine. She does so with her customary admirable scholarship and also her willingness to take controversial positions. I commend the volume most highly to Keynes scholars as a drawing-together and development of the themes that Carabelli has pursued since the publication of her 1988 classic, On Keynes’s Method. Further Keynes’s approach was designed to be applied to different contexts, so I enthusiastically recommend the volume also as a foundation and guide for anyone open to such a ‘new way of reasoning in economics’ for the modern era.        _Sheila Dow, University of Stirling 

This book examines the philosophy and methodology of Keynes, highlighting its novelty and how it presented a new form of economic reasoning. Exploring Keynes’s use of non-demonstrative logic, based on probability, commonalities are found in his economics, ethics, aesthetics, and international relations. Insights are provided into his reasoning and his approach to uncertainty, rationality, measurability of complex magnitudes, moral and rational dilemmas, and irreducible conflicts.

This book investigates methodological continuity within Keynes’s work, in particular in relation to uncertainty, complexity, incommensurability, happiness and openness. It will be relevant to students and researchers interested in Keynes, probability, ambiguity, ethics and the history of economic thought.

Author(s): Anna M. Carabelli
Series: Palgrave Studies in the History of Economic Thought
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Year: 2021

Language: English
Pages: 189
City: Cham

Contents
1 Introduction
References
2 Rationality as Reasonableness: Probability
Probability as Reasonableness
Economic Expectations, Reasonableness and Conventional Rules
Speculator’s Knowledge
Ignorance and Uncertainty
Reasonable Economic Policy: The Reasonable Justification of Economic Policy and Intervention
Public Institutions and Limited Knowledge
References
3 Complexity and Incommensurability: Multidimensional, Heterogeneous and Interdependent Magnitudes. Probability and Economic Magnitudes
Probability: Measurement and Comparison
CASE-III: Non-Quantitative Comparison of Probabilities and Incommensurability
The Hypothesis of Homogeneity
Joint Judgements: Direct and Organic Judgements
Joint Judgements of Probability and the Weight of Argument
Joint Judgements of Probability and Goodness: Right Conduct
Keynes’s Philosophy of Measure: Intrinsically Incommensurable Magnitudes
From Probability to Economic Quantities
General Price Level
Utility
Incommensurability and Incomparability Due to Heterogeneity in Dimension
Keynes’s Choice of the Units of Quantities and Measure in Economics
Units of Time and Comparison in Time and Space
The Atomic Hypothesis (the Hypothesis of Independence). Organic Interdependence. Wholes and Parts
‘Complex or Manifold’ Economic Magnitudes
References
4 Keynes’s Methodology of Criticism: Probability and Classical Economic Theory. Logical Fallacies: The Introduction of the Tacit Assumptions of Homogeneity and Independence
The Methodology of Critique of Probability in a Treatise on Probability
The Methodology of Critique of Classical Economic Theory
Critique of Premises
Search for Tacit Assumptions
Types of Tacit Assumptions
Characteristics of Classical Tacit Assumptions
The Limits Set to the Classical Tacit Assumptions
What Keynes Means By a ‘General Theory’
The Logical Flaw in Classical Theory: ‘Ignoratio Elenchi’
The Epistemological Role of Classical Tacit Assumptions
Keynes’s Own Method of Reasoning in the General Theory
References
5 Uncertainty as the Legacy of Greek Tragedy: Uncertainty as Tragic Choice
Tragedy: Main Themes
Tragic Moral Dilemmas
Keynes’s Ethics of Virtues
Pluralism and Heterogeneity of Ends and Values
Irreducibility of Heterogeneous Plural Ends and Values: Keynes’s Pleasure, Goodness and Happiness
References
6 Happiness as Tragic Aristotelian Eudaimonia
The ‘Fragility of Goodness’
The Greek Legacy of the Ethics of Virtues Against Utilitarianism
Aesthetics as Sublime: ‘Tragic Beauty’. Pluralism in Aesthetics, the Beautiful and Sublime
References
7 Moral and Rational Conflicts and Dilemmas
Keynes on Moral Conflicts and Dilemmas
Keynes on Rational Conflicts and Dilemmas
References
8 International Relations: Complexity, Interdependence and Multilateralism—A Tragic Dilemma
Indian Currency and Finance (1913) and the Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919)
The General Theory (1936) and International Relations
The Commod Control Scheme (1938–1942)
The Interwar Period: Protection and Trade as a Means of Exporting Unemployment
The International Clearing Union, or on Trade as Exchange of Goods Against Goods
Memorandum ‘Overseas Financial Policy in Stage III’ (1945)
Keynes, Current Global Imbalances and the Euro-Zone Project
References
9 Conclusions
References
Index