International Migration in Europe: Data, Models and Estimates

International Migration in Europe......Page 3
Contents......Page 9
Contributors......Page 17
Preface......Page 19
1.1 Introduction......Page 21
1.2.1 Definitions......Page 24
1.2.3 Structure of the book......Page 25
References......Page 27
Part I Data Issues......Page 29
2.1 Introduction......Page 31
2.2 A new database on immigrant populations......Page 34
2.3.1 The foreign and foreign-born populations......Page 35
2.3.2 The geographic origin of immigrants......Page 38
2.3.3 The educational attainment of immigrant populations......Page 41
2.4.1 The extent of expatriation in OECD countries......Page 43
2.4.2 The educational attainment of expatriates......Page 49
2.5.1 Introduction......Page 54
2.5.2 Results......Page 55
2.6 Summary and conclusions......Page 58
References......Page 59
3.1 Introduction......Page 61
3.2.1 Double entry matrices......Page 62
3.2.2 Evolution of migration flows over time......Page 68
3.3 Data sources and definitions......Page 73
3.3.1 Primary data sources......Page 74
3.3.2 Definitions......Page 77
3.4 Secondary data sources and data availability......Page 82
3.5 Conclusions......Page 88
Acknowledgements......Page 89
References......Page 90
4.1 Introduction......Page 93
4.2 Data sources and availability of statistics on international migration flows......Page 94
4.3 Definition of international migration in official flow statistics......Page 96
4.4 Trends in international migration flows......Page 100
4.5 Impact of migration definition on recorded volume of international migration flows......Page 102
4.6 Conclusions......Page 106
References......Page 107
5.1 Introduction......Page 109
5.2.1 Italy......Page 110
5.2.2 Spain......Page 112
5.2.3 Portugal......Page 113
5.2.4 Greece......Page 114
5.3.1 Italy......Page 115
5.3.2 Spain......Page 117
5.3.3 Portugal......Page 118
5.3.4 Greece......Page 120
5.4 Regularisation programmes......Page 123
5.5 Estimates of irregular migrants in Italy, Spain and Greece......Page 126
5.5.1 Italy......Page 127
5.5.2 Spain......Page 128
5.5.3 Greece......Page 130
References......Page 132
Part II Models......Page 135
6.1 Introduction......Page 137
6.2 Data types and data structure......Page 139
6.3 Probability models: generalities......Page 143
6.4 Probability models of migration......Page 146
6.4.1 State probabilities......Page 147
6.4.2 Transition probabilities......Page 148
6.4.3 Transition rates......Page 149
6.4.4 From transition probabilities to transition rates......Page 156
6.5.1 Adding statistical data......Page 157
6.5.2 Adding judgemental data......Page 161
6.6 Conclusion......Page 162
References......Page 163
7.1 Introduction......Page 169
7.1.2 Quasi-independence......Page 170
7.1.3 A brief overview of Raymer’s approach......Page 171
7.2 A modelling framework......Page 172
7.2.1 The initial model......Page 173
7.2.3 Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques......Page 174
7.2.4 The updating equations......Page 175
7.2.5 Generating the proposals......Page 176
7.3 Results of the initial simulation......Page 177
7.4.1 Generating observations with < igma> =0.03......Page 179
7.4.2 The priors for < igma>2 and <\tau>2......Page 181
7.5.1 Introducing some noise into the reported values......Page 183
7.6 Northern European migration......Page 185
7.6.1 Overview of Raymer’s estimation strategy......Page 186
7.6.2 Using the reported immigration data to generate estimates from the Bayesian model......Page 187
7.6.3 Assumptions about the error of the reported values......Page 190
7.6.4 Altering the Lithuanian margins......Page 191
7.6.5 Assessing the model performance......Page 192
7.7 Conclusion......Page 193
References......Page 194
8.1 Introduction......Page 195
8.2.1 Explaining the regularities......Page 197
8.2.2 Describing the regularities: interstate migration in the US West, 1985–1990......Page 199
8.3 Fitting multi-exponential model schedules to age patterns of migration......Page 201
8.4 Modelling families of age-specific migration......Page 203
8.5 Discussion and conclusion......Page 208
References......Page 210
9.1 Introduction......Page 213
9.2 Parametric vs dynamic general linear model approaches......Page 214
9.3 Pooling strength over different schedules......Page 216
9.4 Case study: Scotland to England migration, 1990–1991......Page 217
9.5 Multivariate (multiple schedule) model estimates......Page 221
References......Page 224
Part III Current Estimates......Page 227
10.1 Introduction......Page 229
10.2.1 Data typologies......Page 230
10.2.3 The data collected for this study......Page 232
10.3.1 Multiplicative component model......Page 237
10.3.2 Log-linear model......Page 239
10.3.3 Applying the multiplicative component and log-linear models to estimate international migration flows in Europe......Page 240
10.4.1 Immigration and emigration totals......Page 242
10.4.2 International migration flows......Page 245
10.4.3 Age-specific flows......Page 247
References......Page 252
11.1 Introduction......Page 255
11.2 Asylum applications in European countries, 1985–2002......Page 256
11.3 A method for measuring generation and substitution......Page 257
11.4 Generation and substitution in twelve European countries......Page 263
11.5 Substitution and asylum policies......Page 266
11.6 Conclusions......Page 269
References......Page 270
Part IV Forecasting......Page 273
12.1 Introduction......Page 275
12.2.1 Uncertainty and subjectivity in migration forecasting......Page 276
12.2.2 Bayesian statistics: introductory notes......Page 278
12.3.1 General remarks......Page 280
12.3.2 Mathematical models of population flows......Page 281
12.3.3 Econometric forecasts of international migration......Page 282
12.3.4 Stochastic forecasts of migration time series......Page 284
12.3.5 Bayesian models and forecasts of population flows......Page 286
12.4.1 Data, specification and estimation of the models......Page 287
12.4.2 Forecasts of international migration between Poland and Germany, 2004–2010......Page 290
Acknowledgements......Page 297
References......Page 298
13.1 Introduction......Page 303
13.2 Extrapolations......Page 305
13.3 Explanations......Page 310
13.4.1 Labour migration......Page 312
13.4.2 Family-related migration......Page 314
13.4.3 Asylum seekers......Page 315
13.5.1 Foreigners......Page 318
13.5.2 Nationals......Page 320
13.6 Assumptions on future changes in immigration and emigration......Page 322
13.7 Uncertainty......Page 324
13.8 Conclusion......Page 325
References......Page 326
Part V Demographic Consequences......Page 327
14.1 Introduction......Page 329
14.2 The increasing importance of international migration in population dynamics and population modelling......Page 330
14.3 A review of multinational population projections and forecasts in Europe......Page 331
14.4 The international migration component in national and multinational population dynamics models......Page 333
14.4.1 The incorporation of international migration into population dynamics models......Page 334
14.4.2 Subnational allocation of international migrants......Page 336
14.4.3 Issues concerning international migration data......Page 337
14.5.1 General description and comparison with earlier models......Page 339
14.5.2 An outline of MULTIPOLES structure, data requirements and applications......Page 340
14.6 Conclusion......Page 341
References......Page 342
15.1.1 Migrant and ethnic classifications......Page 349
15.1.3 The topic and its importance......Page 350
15.1.4 Aims of the chapter......Page 351
15.2.1 Trends in international migration......Page 352
15.2.3 Population projection models: key features and choices......Page 354
15.2.4 Critical issues for projecting ethnic group populations......Page 357
15.3.1 Choices of projection models......Page 358
15.3.2 The projection model......Page 359
15.4.2 Estimation of single-year ethnic group populations......Page 360
15.4.5 Migration variables......Page 362
15.4.6 International migration datasets and trends......Page 363
15.4.8 Estimation of internal migration and immigration by ethnicity......Page 364
15.5 Projection assumptions......Page 365
15.6.1 How much is each group projected to change from 2001 to 2020?......Page 367
15.6.2 How do these results vary across regions of the UK?......Page 369
15.7 Comparisons, evaluations and adjustments......Page 371
15.8.1 Areas where there is agreement......Page 372
15.8.3 Areas that need further study......Page 374
References......Page 375
16.1 Early concerns......Page 379
16.2 More recent concerns......Page 381
16.3 This book’s contributions......Page 385
References......Page 388
Index......Page 391