International Handbook Of Population Policies

Foreword
Acknowledgments
General Introduction
The Overall Context of Population Policies
Outline of the Handbook
References
Contents
Contributors
Part I: Theoretical Foundations
1: Contemporary Population Issues
History
From Precarity to Growth
Growth Reversal and Population Aging
The Demographic Dividend
Fertility Stalls and Extremely Young Societies
Migration: Global and Local
Conclusion
References
2: Population Policies Framework
Introduction
Types of Population Policies
Explicit and Implicit Policies
Policy Platforms and Suites of Policies
The Importance of International and Regional Agreements for Shaping Population Policies
Goals and Strategies of Population Policies
Bringing Demographic Dynamics into Alignment with Development
Population Policies Following ICPD
Population Policies in the MDGs and SDGs Eras
Choice of Policy Levers
High Population Growth
Family Planning, Reproductive Health, and Women´s Empowerment in High Fertility Countries
Box 2.1: Population Policy in Bangladesh
Harnessing the Demographic Dividend
Box 2.2: Uganda´s 2020 Population Policy: Harnessing the Demographic Dividend
Population and the Environment
Migration
Discomfort with the ``Population´´ in Population Policies
Low Population Growth
Box 2.3: Contrasting Approaches to Addressing Low Fertility
Moving from Policies Addressing High Fertility to Low Fertility
The Policy Process
Policy Documents
Policy Stakeholders and Institutions
Box 2.4: Population Policy in Nigeria: Political Ambivalence and Weak Implementation
Implementation
Monitoring and Evaluation
Conclusion
References
3: Classical Foundations of Past and Present Population Policies
Introduction
Before the Nineteenth Century: The Emergence of the Concept of Population and Political Power
Power and Sovereignty
Property and Conflict of Interest
From Absolutism to Individualism
The Malthusian Revolution: Malthus and Demo-Economic Growth
The Consequences of Demographic Dynamics: Poverty or Increased Agricultural Production?
Demo-Economic Growth
The Malthusian Legacy and the Political Instrumentalization of Fertility
Bourgeois Universalism and the Management of Demographic Behaviors
The Standard of Living Theory
The Roots of Current Population Policies
Conclusion: Thinking About Population Policies Yesterday and Today
References
4: Population, Burden of Disease, and Health Services
Introduction
Demographic Patterns and Trends
Demographic Patterns and the Burden of Disease
Aging and the Burden of Disease
Urbanization and the Burden of Disease
International Migration and the Burden of Disease
Health Services
Aging Populations
Young Populations
Demographically Transitioning Countries
Urbanization
Migration
Conclusion: Looking Forward
Appendix: 15 Diseases Which Accounted for the Largest Proportion of Burden of Disease in the Most Densely Populated Province/S...
References
5: Population, Development, and Policy
Demographic Transition
The Transition Model
Transition Theory
Key Transition Trends
The Demographic Dividend, Economic Growth, and Poverty
The Demographic Dividend
Modeling the Demographic Dividend
Fertility Decline and the Demographic Dividend in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Theories of Fertility Decline
Conventional Theories
Revisionist Theories
Policy Options for Enhancing the Demographic Dividend: The Role of Family Planning Programs
Rationale
Family Planning Program Components
Program Impact on Contraceptive Use
Controlled Experiments
Natural Experiments
Regression Analyses
Program Impact on Fertility and Population Trends
Conclusion
References
6: Population Dynamics and the Environment: The Demo-climatic Transition
Introduction
Population Transitions and Environmental Changes
Population Size and Growth
Hyper-consumption and Production
The Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Changes
Collapsing the Waves in a Tsunami: How Population Transitions and Environmental Changes Set the Stage for Population Policies ...
Global Environmental Changes and Demographic Transitions: The Demo-climatic Transition
Global Environmental Changes
The Demo-climatic Transition
Conclusion: Reframing Population Policies in the Demo-climatic Transition
References
7: Population and Food System Sustainability
Introduction
The Concepts of Food Security and Food Sustainability
Food and Nutrition Security: The Early Period
The Tipping Point and the Advent of Sustainability
Food Security and Sustainability: Two Complementary Concepts
The Increasing Importance of International Trade and Globalization
Population Dynamics and Food System Sustainability
Population Dynamics and the Food Demand-Side
Population Dynamics, Food Supply, and Changing Agro-Food Systems
Resource Constraints, Climate Change, and Food Sustainability
Policy Challenges
Policies Managing Food Demand and Reducing Waste
Policies Increasing Supply by Increasing Productivity Sustainably
Policies Addressing Socioeconomic and Governance Challenges
Measurement Issues and Early Warning Systems
Conclusions
References
Part II: Empirical Evidence
8: Sub-Saharan Africa: Slow Fertility Transitions Despite Policy Efforts
Introduction
1950-1980: The Difficult Acceptance of Family Planning and Population Policies
Concerns About Population Growth
Governments´ Refusal to Adopt Family Planning Programs
Data Collection for a Better Understanding of Population Dynamics
1980-2000: Toward a Consensus on the Benefits of Family Planning Despite the HIV/AIDS Epidemic
Acceptance and Development of National Population Policies
Family Planning and the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in 1980s and 1990s
1994 ICPD and More Attention to Reproductive Health
2000-2020: The Capturing of a Demographic Dividend Through an Integrated Policy Approach to Population Issues
Stronger Commitment to Reducing Maternal and Child Mortality and Promoting Fertility Reduction
In Search of a Demographic Dividend
Cases Studies
Kenya
Ghana
Rwanda
Ethiopia
Burkina Faso
Niger
Conclusion
References
9: The United States and Canada: Demographic Realities and Policy Responses
Introduction
Mortality Levels, Trends, and Policy Responses
Levels and Trends
Policy Responses
Fertility Levels, Trends, and Policy Responses
Levels and Trends
Policy Responses
Immigration Levels, Trends, and Policy Responses
Levels and Trends
Policy Responses
U.S. and Canadian Immigration Systems
Historical/Early Immigration Policy in the U.S. and Canada
Contemporary Immigration Policies in the U.S. and Canada
Future Implications of Policy Responses
Conclusion
References
10: Population Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean: From Carmen Miró to the Montevideo Consensus
Introduction
The First Years: The Shining 1960s
Early Adoption of Family Planning
Other Developments: Data Collection and Research on Fertility and Family Planning
Around Bucharest 1974
Demographic Changes and Family Planning Services
The Introduction of the Population Policy Paradigm
The Case of Mexico
The 1980s and Early 1990s: A Lost Decade?
The Case of Costa Rica
The Emergence of a New Paradigm: Cairo 1994
The ICPD New Paradigm on Reproductive Health and Reproductive Rights
The Institutional Effects of the ICPD for Population Policies
Box 10.1: Mainstreaming Population Matters in Economic and Social Planning and in Poverty Reduction Efforts in Latin America a...
The Montevideo Consensus: Going Beyond the ICPD
The Montevideo Consensus: A New and Redefined Framework for Population and Development
Some Achievements of the Montevideo Consensus
From a Broader Population and Development Population Point of View: What´s the Balance? Accomplishments and Missed Opportuniti...
The Shift in the Age Structure and Population Aging: A Mix of Successes and Missed Opportunities
Rapid Urbanization: How Political and Group Biases and Misconceptions Can Affect Good Policy Decisions
Is There a Future for Population Policies in the Region?
References
11: Demographic Features in West Asian and North African Countries: The Impact of Population Policies
Introduction
Population Growth and Demographic Transition
Trends in Fertility
Trends in Infant Mortality and Life Expectancy at Birth
Age and Sex Distribution of the Population
Age Distribution
Sex Ratios
Population Pyramids
Population Growth in the Gulf Countries: The Role of Migration
Population Programs and Policies
Egypt
Pre-1960s: The Development Strategy
The 1960s: Implementation of the First Family Planning Program
The 1970s: Family Planning and Economic Development
1981-2011: Thirty Years of the Mubarak Era
Policies in the Second Decade of the Twenty-First Century
Iran
Pre-Islamic Revolution
Post-Islamic Revolution
Revival of Family Planning Program
Concern for Low Population Growth Rate
Tunisia
Liberalization of Contraception and Abortion
Raising of Legal Minimum Age at Marriage, Prohibiting Polygamy, and Instituting Divorce
Improvement of Status of Women and Guarantee of Their Rights in the Society Through Access to Education and Paid Work
A National Family Planning Program Within a More General Context of Economic Development and Women´s Liberation
The Demographic Dividend and the Issue of Celibacy
Conclusion
References
12: South Asia: Did Population Policies Trigger a Fertility Convergence?
Introduction
Population Policies of Central Asian Countries
Population Policies of Southeast Asian Countries
Population Policies of South Asia Countries
Fertility Convergence in South Asia
What Explains the Convergence in Fertility?
What Next?
Annexes
References
13: Population Policies in East Asia and Oceania
Introduction
Population Policies: A Historical Overview from 1950 to 2000
East Asia
Effectiveness of East Asia´s Population Control Policies and the Switch to Pronatalism
Oceania
Recent Population Policies and the Legacy of Foregoing Policies
East Asia
Oceania
Reappraisal of Recent Population Policies: Aging, Human Capital, and Migration
Labor Market Policies
Pension Policies
Healthcare and Long-Term Care Systems
Human Capital and Development
Migration
Internal Migration in China
Immigration Policy in Australia and New Zealand
Immigration Policy in East Asia
Climate Migration
Population Policies in East Asia and Oceania
References
14: Europe: Low Fertility, Aging, and Migration Policies
Introduction: European Demographic Challenges
Population Policies in Europe: An Overview
Policies Addressing Family and Fertility
Policies by Models
Policies by Family Policy Dimensions
Have Family Policies Been Effective?
Policies Addressing Population Aging
Pensions Reforms
Healthcare
Active Aging
Policies Addressing International Migration
Welcoming Policies
More Restrictive Policies
Migration Crisis
Policies to Attract High Skilled Immigrants
Integration Policies
The Way Forward
Conclusions
References
15: Population Institutions and International Population Conferences
Introduction
The Geopolitical Perspectives that Informed Population Debates
International Population Conferences
Population Conferences Prior to 1970
Population Conferences Since 1970
The ICPD Review Processes
Related Conferences on Development, Environment, and Human Rights
Other Relevant UN Conferences
The London Summit on Family Planning
The Transition to SDGs
Demographically Specialized Conferences
Primary Institutions and Complex Institutional Infrastructure
Development of the UN Organizations Dealing with Population
Population Assistance from the U.S.
Other Bilateral Donors and Private Foundations
Civil Society and Non-governmental Organizations
Intergovernmental, Parliamentarian, and Issue-Focused Coalitions and Groups
Conclusion
References
Part III: Policy Levers and Modelling
16: Data Collection for Population Policies
Introduction
Main Data Collection Operations
Population and Housing Censuses
Civil Registration Systems and Population Registers
Demographic Surveys/Sample Surveys
The Major Demographic Surveys (WFS, DHS, MICS)
Overview of Available Data
Contributions and Limitations of Survey Data
New Data Collection Methods
Hybrid Methodology for Population Estimates
Big Data
Promises and Pitfalls of a Data Revolution
Conclusion
References
17: Family Policies: How Do They Differ Around the World?
Introduction
Family Policies in High-Fertility Countries
Family Policies to Reduce Family Size
Family Policies to Increase Women´s Status and Access to Paid Employment
Family Policies for Reconciling Work and Family Roles in Sub-Saharan Africa
Family Policies to Reduce Child Mortality and Increase Children´s Well-Being
Family Policies in Low-Fertility Countries
Policies to Increase Family Size
Policies to Increase Women´s Labor Market Participation
Policies to Increase Men´s Involvement in Household Work and Childrearing
Policies to Increase Children´s Well-Being
Summary and Conclusion
References
18: Population and Health Policies in Urban Areas
Introduction
Urban Growth in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
The Proliferation of Cities of All Sizes
Growing Geographic Inequities
Urban Definitions and Implications
Managing Urban Growth
Rapid Urbanization and Its Policy Implications
Who Is in Charge?
Strategic Urban Planning
Capital City Relocation
Box 18.1: Challenges in Capital City Relocation in LMICs
Secondary City Planning
Key Urban Population Policies
Family Planning
Box 18.2: Urban Programs Under the Urban Reproductive Health Initiative (URHI)
Youth
Aging
Box 18.3: Ghana´s Aging Population
Migration
Health and Socioeconomic Inequities in Urban Areas
Rising Inequities and Issues of Measurement
Visible Inequities and Invisible Populations
Reducing Urban Health Inequities
A Social Justice Issue
Box 18.4: Reducing Urban Inequities in Latin America Through Innovative Transport Solutions
Data
Urban Governance
Moving Forward
References
19: Policies Needed to Capture Demographic Dividends
Introduction
The Dependency Ratios, Main Indicators of a First Demographic Dividend´s Potential
The Demographic Dividend
The Dependency Ratios
Policies That Need to Be Implemented for Countries to Benefit from a First Demographic Dividend
Policies to Be Implemented to Sustain Economic Growth and Benefit from a Second Demographic Dividend
Generating a Second Demographic Dividend
Prospects to Achieve a First Demographic Dividend in North African and Sub-Saharan African Countries
Conclusions
References
20: Linkages Between Family Planning and HIV/AIDS Programs
Introduction
Global and Cross-National Links Between Family Planning and HIV Programs
Positive Links
Factors Inhibiting Links
Malawi
Nigeria
Senegal
Integration
Conclusion
References
21: Population Projections and Population Policies
Introduction
Preparing Population Projections
Establishing the Base
Preparing Projection Assumptions
Normative Assumptions
Analytic Assumptions
Assumptions for Policy-Driven Scenarios
Expert-Opinion Assumptions
Processing Population Projections
Projection Software
Population Projections for the Design and Implementation of Population Policies
Policy Options
How Accurate Are Population Projections?
Projections as a Guide for Policy Formulation and Evaluation
Conclusion
References
22: Population Policy Models
Introduction to Models
Population Models
Modeling Fertility
The UN Population Division´s Fertility Modeling
Population and Development Models
Malthus and Neo-Malthusian Models
The Coale-Hoover Model
The BACHUE Models
Demographic Dividend Models
Population and Sector Impact Models
Resources for the Awareness of Population Impacts on Development (RAPID)
Family Planning and the Millennium Development Goals Model (FP-MDG)
Impact Now
Population, Food Security, and Climate Change Model
Conclusion
References
23: Funding of Population Policies and Programs
Background
Financing Population Surveys and Censuses
Financing Family Planning Programs
Low and Middle-Income Countries
High-Income Countries
Financing Pronatalist Policies
Conclusion
References
24: Measuring the Effectiveness, Efficiency, and Impact of Population Policies
Introduction
Key Definitions of the Different Levels of Measurement (Input, Outputs, Outcomes, and Impact)
Evaluation Criteria
First Evaluation Criterion: Relevance
Second Evaluation Criterion: Effectiveness
Box 24.1: Examples of Factors Contributing to the Decline in the Fertility Rate
Third Evaluation Criterion: Efficiency
Fourth Evaluation Criterion: Sustainability
Fifth Evaluation Criterion: Impact
How to Evaluate the Impact of Population Policies: Three Key Approaches
Evaluating Impact by Using Correlation Analysis: The Taiwan Case
Evaluating Impact Through Randomization and Counterfactuals: The Case of Matlab Randomized Controlled Trial
Evaluating Impact by Focusing on Human Agency and Determinism: The Case of Fertility Choices and Gender-Responsive Programming
Box 24.2: The Case of Ethiopia
Sixth Evaluation Criterion: Coherence
Methodological Considerations: The Need for a Solid Conceptual Evaluation Framework and Thirteen Guiding Principles
Guiding Principle #1: Any Framework Attempting to Evaluate a Population Policy Needs to Embed Population Policies Within a Bro...
Guiding Principle #2: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Needs to Be Principled
Guiding Principle #3: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Needs to Account for Both Biological and Behavioral Determinant...
Guiding Principle #4: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Needs to Rest on the Use of Mixed Methods
Guiding Principle #5: The Evaluation Approach Adopted Within the Scope of A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Needs to Re...
Guiding Principle #6: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Needs to Rest on a Solid Theory of Change Whose Pathways of Cha...
Guiding Principle #7: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Needs to Take Equity into Account
Guiding Principle #8: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Will Needs to Systematically Assess the Four Dimensions Around ...
Guiding Principle #9: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Will Needs to Assess Results at Multiple Levels and Over a Rath...
Guiding Principle #10: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Should Focus on the Measurement Not Only of the Effects but Al...
Guiding Principle #11: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Cannot Dismiss an In-depth Assessment of the Context/Environme...
Guiding Principle #12: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Needs to Assess the Validity of the Assumptions Underlying the...
Guiding Principle # 13: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Needs to Be Gender-Transformative
How to Measure Changes as a Result of a Population Policy: The Importance of Using Valid Indicators and Credible Benchmarks
Benchmarking: How to Do It?
Beyond the Boundaries of the Original Plans and Expected Objectives: How to Use Evaluation to Capture Unexpected and Unintende...
Box 24.3: How Journalism Helped Assess Population Policies´ Unexpected Results
Box 24.4: Key Questions to Ask to Account for Population Policies´ Unexpected Outcomes
Conclusions
References
Part IV: New Policy Challenges
25: Population Aging and Public Policy
Introduction
How Did We Get Here? Demographic Transition and Population Composition
Policies to Increase Fertility
Population Aging and Health Policies
The American Welfare State: Medicare and Medicaid
ACA 10-Years Post Enactment
Gender and Traditional Barriers to Health Coverage
Population Aging and Policy Challenges in Less Developed Countries
Conclusion
References
26: Pension Policies
The Interaction Between Pension Policies and Birth Rates
Population Aging and Less Developed Countries
Population Aging and Pay-As-You-Go Social Security
Previous Literature
Political Sustainability
Social Security Reforms
Raising the Normal Retirement Age: Canada vs. the U.S.
Raising the Early Retirement Age
Social Security Privatization
Social Security Reform in Canada, Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom
The Reform Process
The Politics of Raising Social Security Entitlement Ages
The Equity of Social Security Reform
The Link Between Income and Mortality Rates
Social Security Reforms
Reducing Political Risk through Automatic Adjustment Mechanisms
Conclusions
Appendix: Shadow Prices and Constraints
Requirements for Financial Sustainability in Social Security Financing
Application to the U.S. Social Security System
An Alternative Model
References
27: The Contraceptive Revolution
Introduction
Conditions that Led to Family Planning Programs
A Framework for Analysis
The Fundamentals of Family Planning Programs: AAAQ
Availability
Accessibility
Acceptability
Quality
Departures from, and Threats to, the Voluntary Principle
Payments, Benefits, and Penalties
Targets
Provider Bias
Extreme Pressure
Conclusion: Unfinished Business
References
28: The Role of Abortion in Population Policies
Introduction
Global Abortion Trends
Abortion, Fertility, and Measurement
Innovations in Abortion Technologies
The Harms of Policies Restricting Abortion Access
Abortion Policy at the Global Level
Abortion and the Global Health and Development Policy Agenda
COVID-19 and Abortion Policy Changes
National Abortion Policies: Implementation and Impact
Countries with Stable, Liberal Policies
Countries on an Uncertain Pathway Toward Expanded Abortion Access, with Many Obstacles and Setbacks
Box 28.1: Abortion Legalization in Argentina
Countries Stalled in Progress Toward Liberal Policies, But Where Clandestine Abortion Is Widely Practiced
Box 28.2: Enabling Safe Abortion in a Legally Restrictive Context: Menstrual Regulation in Bangladesh
Countries with the Most Extreme Policies, Enforced with Severe Penalties
Conclusion: Toward Enlightened Abortion Policies
References
29: International Migration Policies
Introduction
Trends in Migration
Distribution of Migration
The Demographic Appeal of Immigration to Receiving Countries
Economic and Fiscal Reasons for Migration
International Migration Theories
Neoclassical Economic Theory
New Economic Theories of Migration
Network Theory
Labor Market Segmentation Theory
World Systems Theory
Political Economy Theories
Immigration Policy Perspectives
Global Trends in Migration Policies
Conclusion
References
30: The Education Revolution
Introduction
Education and Fertility: The Link
Impact of Education Policies on Fertility
The Future of Educational and Fertility Development
The Low Fertility-High Education Trap
Conclusion
References
31: Priority Groups in Population Policies
Introduction
Priority-Setting Frameworks for Identifying Priority Groups
Current Priorities in the Development Landscape
Addressing Gender in Population Policies
Addressing Women in Population Policies
Addressing Men in Population Policies
Adolescents and Youth
Fertility
Mortality
Migration
Aging Populations
Migrants
Persons with Disabilities
Other Population Groups
Conclusion
References
32: Demographic Dynamics, Poverty, and Inequality
Introduction
Demographic Transition, Poverty, and Inequality
Fertility
Mortality
Infant Mortality
Maternal Mortality
Adult Mortality
Summing Up
Additional Issues
Adolescent Fertility
Aging
Migrations and Spatial Location of the Population
Results of Population Movements
Urban Poverty
Rural Areas
International Migration and Remittances
Effects of Remittances
International Migration as an Investment of the Poor
Policies Aimed at Poverty Reduction
Approaches to Anti-poverty Programs
The Turn in the 1980s
Conditional Transfers
Final Thoughts
References
33: Bioethics, Sex Selection, and Gender Equity
`From Chance to Choice´
Box 33.1: Gender and Sex
Selective Reproductive Technologies
Prenatal Sex Selection
Preconception and Pre-implementation Sex Selection
Bioethical Debate of Sex Selection
Regulation of Sex Selection Technology in the U.S., Europe, and Elsewhere
Demographic Imbalances
Sex Imbalances at Birth
Missing Women
Marriage Squeeze
Gender, Health, and Political Concerns
Public Policies to Balance the Scales
Policy Evolution
Policy Instruments
Policy Impact
Unintended Side Effects
Side Effect 1: Too Powerful? Fertility Control Policies Give Rise to Sex Imbalances at Birth
Side Effect 2: Too Proactive? Vietnam´s Prompt Policy Response Triggered the Onset of Sex Selection
Side Effect 3: Too Paternalistic? Political Masculinities in India Hinder Efforts to Counter Sex Selection
Side Effect 4: Too Popular? South Korea´s ``Success´´ Story Gets Adopted in the Absence of Proven Policy Efficacy
Population-Level Bioethics: A Call for Demographers
References
34: Population and National Security
Introduction
Historical and Theoretical Foundations
Population as Power
Population as Pressure
Demographic Changes and Their Effects on Conflict
Composition
Population Age Structure
Youthful
Transitional
Mature
Sex Ratio
International Migration and IDPs
Distribution: Urbanization
Future Role in National Security
References
35: Demographic Sustainability
Introduction: SDGs and Sustainability of World Population
World Population Prospects as Assessed in 2019
The World´s Next 3.1 Billion People
Global Trends: Decreasing Fertility and Increasing Life Expectancy
The Driving Force of Demographic Transition
The Narrow Pass for Demographic Sustainability
Demographic Maturity and the Emergence of ``a Shrinking Society´´
Sustainable Population Policy and Foreseeable Problems
Restoring Replacement Level of Fertility
Further Expanding the Lifespan
The Role of Migration
Conclusion: A Sustainable Future for the Human Population
References
36: Prospects for Population Policies and Interventions
Introduction
Contemporary Population Issues
Emerging Global Challenges
Bioethical and Gender Issues
The Ways Forward
Prioritization of Policy Interventions
Building a Policy Consensus
Selection of Priority Constituencies
Institutionalization and Funding of Policies
Promotion of Evidence-Based and Research-Driven Policies
Conclusion
References
General Conclusion
New Opportunities and Challenges
The Way Forward
References
Index