International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system.
Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.
Author(s): Barry Hughes
Edition: 1
Publisher: Academic Press
Year: 2019
Language: English
Pages: 338
Cover......Page 1
INTERNATIONAL
FUTURES
Building and Using Global Models......Page 3
Copyright......Page 4
Prologue......Page 5
Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 7
Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases......Page 9
Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams......Page 11
1
Introduction......Page 13
What Path Are We On?......Page 14
What Leverage Do We Have?......Page 15
How Do We Address Uncertainty?......Page 16
The Plan of the Volume......Page 17
References......Page 18
Identifying Concepts......Page 19
Recognizing Systems......Page 20
Assembling Data......Page 23
Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions......Page 26
Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type......Page 28
Building Algorithms......Page 31
Making Choices at the Equation Level......Page 33
Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket......Page 34
Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers......Page 35
Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points......Page 36
Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty......Page 37
Exploring Transformative Uncertainty......Page 38
Verification, Validation, and Accreditation......Page 39
Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission......Page 42
References......Page 43
Foundational Work......Page 45
The First Wave......Page 46
New Capabilities......Page 47
Integrated Assessment Models......Page 49
Comparative Use of IAMs......Page 50
Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures......Page 51
Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use......Page 59
Coverage and Connections......Page 60
Transparency and Openness......Page 61
Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty......Page 62
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)......Page 63
Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives......Page 65
References......Page 66
Structural Overview of IFs......Page 73
Data Analysis......Page 78
Creation of Scenarios......Page 79
Users and Uses of IFs......Page 80
Looking Ahead......Page 82
References......Page 83
Population......Page 88
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 89
Demographic Transitions......Page 91
Modeling Population, Especially Fertility......Page 93
Population in IFs......Page 96
Fertility Rate......Page 97
Mortality and Migration......Page 100
Limitations......Page 101
Comparative Scenarios......Page 102
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 104
Health Transitions......Page 105
Modeling Health, Especially Mortality......Page 106
Health in IFs......Page 108
The Distal Foundation......Page 109
The Risk Assessment Overlay......Page 112
Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers......Page 114
Other Important Health Variables......Page 115
Comparative Scenarios......Page 116
Education......Page 117
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 118
Education Transitions......Page 120
Modeling Education Progression......Page 122
Education in IFs......Page 123
Primary Intake......Page 124
Education Financing Reconciliation......Page 125
Other Important Education Variables......Page 126
Limitations......Page 127
Comparative Scenarios......Page 128
Human Development in Summary......Page 129
Conclusion......Page 131
References......Page 132
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 136
Flow-Based Accounting......Page 137
Economic Growth Dynamics......Page 140
Economic Transitions......Page 141
Modeling Economics......Page 143
The Hybrid: Dynamic Equilibrium Models......Page 144
Enhancing the Treatment of Productivity......Page 145
The IFs Approach to Productivity......Page 147
Productivity Overview: Exogenous and Endogenous Elements......Page 148
Endogenous Productivity Growth......Page 149
An Example: Human Capital and Productivity......Page 150
Other Endogenous Productivity Terms......Page 151
Informality......Page 152
Flows and Accounting......Page 153
External Accounts......Page 154
Equilibration Dynamics......Page 155
Income Distribution and Poverty......Page 156
Around the SAM......Page 157
Parameterization of Terms Driving MFP Endogenously......Page 158
Interaction Effects of Contributions to MFP......Page 159
Labor and Financial Markets......Page 160
Comparative Scenarios......Page 161
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 164
Modeling Government Finance......Page 165
Government Finance in IFs......Page 166
Government Consumption/Investment......Page 167
Sectoral Demand (GDS) Calculations......Page 168
Core Infrastructure Sector......Page 169
Reconciling Sector-Specific Demands With Expenditure Availability......Page 170
Balancing Revenues and Expenditures......Page 171
Comparative Scenarios......Page 172
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 174
Governance Transitions......Page 176
Modeling of Governance......Page 179
Security and Internal War......Page 182
A Deeper Look at Culture......Page 185
Comparative Scenarios......Page 187
International/Global Politics......Page 189
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 190
International Political Transitions......Page 191
Modeling International Politics......Page 193
International Politics in IFs......Page 194
Threat of Overt Conflict: General Challenges and Formulation......Page 195
Threat of Conflict: Initial Prediction Term......Page 196
Threat of Conflict: Dynamic Power Term......Page 197
Threat of Conflict: Dynamic Non-Power Term......Page 198
Limitations......Page 199
Comparative Scenarios......Page 200
References......Page 201
Further Reading......Page 209
7
The Future of Sustainable Development......Page 210
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 211
Agriculture and Food Transitions......Page 212
Modeling Agriculture and Food......Page 214
Agriculture and Food in IFs......Page 217
Yield and Production......Page 218
Other Important Functions, Including Demand and Equilibration......Page 222
Relationship of Physical and Value Representations of Agriculture......Page 223
Comparative Scenarios......Page 224
Energy......Page 227
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 228
Energy Transitions......Page 230
Modeling Energy......Page 233
Energy in IFs......Page 234
Resources and Production......Page 235
Other Important Energy Functions: Demand and Equilibration......Page 237
Limitations......Page 239
Comparative Scenarios......Page 240
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 243
Infrastructure Transitions......Page 244
Modeling Infrastructure......Page 246
Infrastructure in IFs......Page 247
Expected Access Rates......Page 248
Other Important Functions......Page 249
Comparative Scenarios......Page 250
Human Impacts on Biophysical Systems: An Introductory Note......Page 251
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 253
Atmospheric Carbon Transition......Page 254
Modeling Climate Change......Page 255
The Carbon Cycle and Global Warming in IFs......Page 258
Comparative Scenarios......Page 261
Concepts, Structures, and Data......Page 263
Water Transitions......Page 264
Modeling Water Systems......Page 266
Water in IFs......Page 269
Comparative Scenarios......Page 271
References......Page 274
Biophysical System Linkages Back to Human Ones: The Impact of Change......Page 280
Uncertain Knowledge About Environmental Impacts......Page 282
Modeling Impacts From Environmental Change......Page 283
Challenges: Causal Representations (Especially of Extreme Events)......Page 285
Challenges: Temporal Considerations......Page 286
Enumerative Analysis: Illustrative Elements......Page 287
Enumerative Analysis: Putting the Pieces Together......Page 289
Aggregated Statistical Representation......Page 291
Modeling Environmental Impacts in IFs......Page 292
Technology......Page 293
Conceptualization and Treatment of Technology......Page 294
Technology in IFs......Page 295
Concluding Remarks......Page 296
References......Page 297
9
Looking Ahead: Global Models and the IFs System......Page 300
Foundations of Alternative World Views and Future Scenarios......Page 301
Elaboration of Alternative World Views and Future Scenarios......Page 303
Exploring Uncertain Futures: Scenarios......Page 306
Current Path, Reform, and Transformation: The Global Scenario Group......Page 307
Selected Scenario Analyses Building on the GSG Work......Page 308
Other Important Scenario Studies......Page 309
Some Strengths and Weaknesses of Much General Framing Scenario Analysis......Page 311
Creating Better Futures: Policy Analysis Scenarios......Page 312
Next Steps in Global Modeling-And in the Development of IFs......Page 314
References......Page 317
C......Page 319
E......Page 320
G......Page 321
I......Page 322
L......Page 323
P......Page 324
S......Page 325
W......Page 326
Y......Page 327
B......Page 328
D......Page 329
G......Page 330
J......Page 331
L......Page 332
N......Page 333
R......Page 334
S......Page 335
W......Page 336
Z......Page 337
Back Cover......Page 338
